Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 27–31 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 28.0% 26.4–29.7% 25.9–30.2% 25.5–30.6% 24.7–31.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 16.6% 15.3–18.0% 14.9–18.4% 14.6–18.8% 14.0–19.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.4–15.7% 12.1–16.1% 11.6–16.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.5–13.6% 10.3–14.0% 9.8–14.6%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.8–13.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.4% 3.6–6.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.6–5.5% 3.4–5.7% 3.1–6.2%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–3.0%
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 24–28 24–28 24–28 24–30
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 16 15–17 14–17 14–18 14–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 12–14 12–14 12–15 12–15
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 11–12 11–13 10–13 10–14
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 9–11 9–11 9–12 9–12
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 100%  
24 24% 99.8%  
25 3% 75%  
26 45% 72% Median
27 14% 28%  
28 12% 14%  
29 0.5% 1.4%  
30 0.5% 0.9%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 6% 99.8%  
15 31% 94%  
16 22% 63% Median
17 38% 41%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.4% 100%  
12 26% 99.6%  
13 41% 73% Median
14 29% 33%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 4% 99.6%  
11 18% 96%  
12 73% 78% Median
13 4% 5%  
14 1.0% 1.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 15% 99.8%  
10 9% 84%  
11 71% 76% Median
12 4% 4%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 39% 99.8%  
5 30% 60% Median
6 30% 30%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 44% 96%  
5 51% 52% Median
6 0.9% 1.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 31% 99.6%  
4 64% 69% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 22% 100%  
2 76% 78% Median
3 1.3% 1.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.8% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100% Last Result
1 71% 72% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 85% 85% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 0% 24–28 24–28 24–28 24–30
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 11–12 11–13 10–13 10–14
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 100%  
24 24% 99.8%  
25 3% 75%  
26 45% 72% Median
27 14% 28%  
28 12% 14%  
29 0.5% 1.4%  
30 0.5% 0.9%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 4% 99.6%  
11 18% 96%  
12 73% 78% Median
13 4% 5%  
14 1.0% 1.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 41% 98%  
5 52% 56% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations