Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 4–10 August 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 26.7–29.4% | 26.3–29.8% | 26.0–30.2% | 25.3–30.9% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 16.6% | 15.5–17.8% | 15.2–18.1% | 14.9–18.4% | 14.4–19.0% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.9–17.2% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.3–17.8% | 13.8–18.4% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.0–13.0% | 10.8–13.3% | 10.5–13.6% | 10.1–14.1% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.0–13.0% | 10.8–13.3% | 10.5–13.6% | 10.1–14.1% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.8–5.1% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.5–5.5% | 3.3–5.8% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.2–5.0% | 2.9–5.4% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.1–4.3% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.6–5.0% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 27 | 26–28 | 25–28 | 25–29 | 24–29 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 15 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 16 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–18 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 7% | 98.7% | |
| 26 | 17% | 92% | |
| 27 | 31% | 74% | Median |
| 28 | 41% | 43% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 59% | 97% | Median |
| 16 | 23% | 38% | |
| 17 | 12% | 16% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 14 | 30% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 18% | 69% | |
| 16 | 44% | 51% | Median |
| 17 | 5% | 7% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 20% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 31% | 79% | Median |
| 12 | 42% | 49% | |
| 13 | 7% | 7% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 14% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 23% | 86% | |
| 12 | 30% | 63% | Median |
| 13 | 32% | 33% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 51% | 92% | Median |
| 5 | 40% | 41% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 26% | 100% | |
| 4 | 56% | 74% | Median |
| 5 | 19% | 19% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 54% | 99.3% | Median |
| 4 | 43% | 45% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 77% | 77% | Median |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 41% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 59% | 59% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 23% | 23% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 27 | 0% | 26–28 | 25–28 | 25–29 | 24–29 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 0% | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 7% | 98.7% | |
| 26 | 17% | 92% | |
| 27 | 31% | 74% | Median |
| 28 | 41% | 43% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 20% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 31% | 79% | Median |
| 12 | 42% | 49% | |
| 13 | 7% | 7% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 34% | 99.3% | Median |
| 4 | 61% | 65% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): RTL n-tv
- Fieldwork period: 4–10 August 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1752
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.17%