Opinion Poll by Allensbach for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 1–13 August 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 27.5% | 25.8–29.4% | 25.3–29.9% | 24.9–30.3% | 24.1–31.2% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 17.8% | 16.4–19.4% | 15.9–19.9% | 15.6–20.3% | 14.9–21.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.7–14.4% | 11.4–14.8% | 11.1–15.2% | 10.5–15.9% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.7–14.4% | 11.4–14.8% | 11.1–15.2% | 10.5–15.9% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.2–13.0% | 8.7–13.7% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.7% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.8–5.9% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.8% | 2.7–5.0% | 2.4–5.4% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.4% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.1–1.2% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 26 | 25–29 | 25–29 | 24–29 | 23–30 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 17 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–20 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 10–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 25 | 16% | 96% | |
| 26 | 39% | 81% | Median |
| 27 | 11% | 42% | |
| 28 | 3% | 31% | |
| 29 | 26% | 28% | |
| 30 | 2% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 13% | 99.6% | |
| 16 | 12% | 87% | |
| 17 | 65% | 75% | Median |
| 18 | 8% | 9% | |
| 19 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 34% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 14% | 66% | |
| 12 | 31% | 52% | Median |
| 13 | 11% | 21% | |
| 14 | 2% | 10% | |
| 15 | 8% | 9% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 29% | 98% | |
| 12 | 11% | 69% | |
| 13 | 21% | 58% | Median |
| 14 | 36% | 37% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 38% | 92% | |
| 11 | 42% | 54% | Median |
| 12 | 11% | 12% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 36% | 97% | |
| 6 | 15% | 60% | Median |
| 7 | 44% | 46% | |
| 8 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 52% | 97% | Median |
| 5 | 17% | 45% | |
| 6 | 27% | 27% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 44% | 97% | |
| 4 | 53% | 53% | Median |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 13% | 13% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 94% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 62% | 62% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 20% | 20% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 26 | 0% | 25–29 | 25–29 | 24–29 | 23–30 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 0% | 10–14 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 10–16 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 25 | 16% | 96% | |
| 26 | 39% | 81% | Median |
| 27 | 11% | 42% | |
| 28 | 3% | 31% | |
| 29 | 26% | 28% | |
| 30 | 2% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 34% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 14% | 66% | |
| 12 | 31% | 52% | Median |
| 13 | 11% | 21% | |
| 14 | 2% | 10% | |
| 15 | 8% | 9% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 37% | 99.0% | |
| 4 | 53% | 62% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
- Fieldwork period: 1–13 August 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1039
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.96%