Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 11–17 August 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 28.0% 26.7–29.4% 26.3–29.8% 26.0–30.1% 25.3–30.8%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 16.6% 15.5–17.8% 15.2–18.1% 14.9–18.4% 14.4–19.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 16.0% 14.9–17.1% 14.6–17.5% 14.3–17.8% 13.8–18.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 11.0–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.5–13.6% 10.1–14.1%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.0% 11.0–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.5–13.6% 10.1–14.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.4% 3.9–5.1% 3.7–5.3% 3.6–5.5% 3.3–5.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.7% 3.1–4.3% 3.0–4.5% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–5.0%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–2.0%
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.4%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.9%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.1–0.3% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 26–28 26–28 25–28 24–30
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 15–18 15–18 15–18 14–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 15 14–16 14–16 14–16 14–17
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 11–12 11–13 11–13 10–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 11–12 11–12 10–12 10–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.8% 100%  
25 3% 99.2%  
26 16% 97%  
27 59% 81% Median
28 19% 21%  
29 1.5% 2%  
30 0.5% 0.5%  
31 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.9%  
15 28% 98.5%  
16 9% 70%  
17 2% 61%  
18 59% 59% Median
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.4% 100%  
14 19% 99.6%  
15 68% 80% Median
16 11% 12%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 66% 98% Median
12 26% 32%  
13 6% 6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 3% 99.9%  
11 64% 97% Median
12 31% 33%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 17% 100%  
4 68% 83% Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 43% 100%  
4 54% 57% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 25% 97%  
4 72% 73% Median
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 94% 100% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 84% 84% Median
2 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 0% 26–28 26–28 25–28 24–30
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 0% 11–12 11–13 11–13 10–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.8% 100%  
25 3% 99.2%  
26 16% 97%  
27 59% 81% Median
28 19% 21%  
29 1.5% 2%  
30 0.5% 0.5%  
31 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 66% 98% Median
12 26% 32%  
13 6% 6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 23% 97%  
4 73% 74% Median
5 1.2% 1.3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations