Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 14–17 August 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 28.5% 27.2–29.8% 26.9–30.2% 26.6–30.5% 26.0–31.2%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 16.2% 15.2–17.3% 14.9–17.6% 14.6–17.9% 14.2–18.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.7–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.7–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.3% 3.8–5.0% 3.7–5.2% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.7%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 1.0–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 28 26–29 25–29 25–29 25–30
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 15 14–17 14–17 14–17 13–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 12 12–13 11–13 11–14 11–14
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 2–3 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 9% 99.9%  
26 20% 91%  
27 20% 71%  
28 38% 51% Median
29 12% 13%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.9% 100%  
14 10% 99.1%  
15 43% 89% Median
16 32% 46%  
17 13% 14%  
18 1.0% 1.0%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 6% 99.8%  
12 47% 94% Median
13 44% 47%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 6% 100%  
11 50% 94% Median
12 34% 44%  
13 10% 10%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 15% 99.9%  
11 38% 85% Median
12 28% 47%  
13 19% 19%  
14 0.5% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 35% 100%  
5 54% 65% Median
6 11% 11%  
7 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 62% 97% Median
5 35% 35%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 25% 100%  
3 67% 75% Median
4 8% 8%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 86% 96% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 93% 100% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.3% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100% Last Result
1 79% 79% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 28 0% 26–29 25–29 25–29 25–30
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 0% 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–4 2–5 2–5 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 9% 99.9%  
26 20% 91%  
27 20% 71%  
28 38% 51% Median
29 12% 13%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 6% 100%  
11 50% 94% Median
12 34% 44%  
13 10% 10%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 6% 100%  
3 32% 94%  
4 58% 63% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations