Opinion Poll by Verian for FOCUS, 19–25 August 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 28.0% 26.5–29.5% 26.1–30.0% 25.7–30.4% 25.0–31.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.6–18.6%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 15.8% 14.6–17.1% 14.3–17.4% 14.0–17.8% 13.4–18.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 13.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.6–14.6% 11.4–14.9% 10.9–15.5%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.0% 11.0–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.4–13.8% 9.9–14.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.2% 3.6–5.0% 3.4–5.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.0–5.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.1% 2.8–5.5%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.4–2.3% 1.2–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.0–2.8%
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.6%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 25–27 25–28 24–29 24–29
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 16 14–17 14–17 13–17 13–18
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 15 14–16 14–16 14–17 13–17
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 11–14 11–14 11–14 11–15
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 12 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–14
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.6%  
25 23% 97%  
26 15% 74%  
27 51% 58% Median
28 4% 7%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.3% 100%  
13 3% 99.7%  
14 15% 97%  
15 20% 81%  
16 46% 61% Median
17 13% 15%  
18 1.4% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 26% 98%  
15 51% 72% Median
16 17% 21%  
17 4% 5%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.5% 100%  
11 10% 99.5%  
12 45% 90% Median
13 35% 45%  
14 8% 10%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 100%  
10 12% 98%  
11 17% 85%  
12 54% 69% Median
13 13% 15%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 7% 99.9%  
4 31% 93%  
5 61% 61% Median
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 52% 99.9% Median
4 39% 48%  
5 8% 8%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 7% 100%  
2 81% 93% Median
3 12% 12%  
4 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 63% 100% Median
2 35% 37%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 90% 99.7% Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 95% 96% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Last Result, Median
1 43% 44%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 0% 25–27 25–28 24–29 24–29
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 11–14 11–14 11–14 11–15
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–4 2–4 1–4

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.6%  
25 23% 97%  
26 15% 74%  
27 51% 58% Median
28 4% 7%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.5% 100%  
11 10% 99.5%  
12 45% 90% Median
13 35% 45%  
14 8% 10%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.4% 100%  
2 58% 98.6% Median
3 31% 41%  
4 10% 10%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations