Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap for ARD, 31 August–2 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 25.5–28.6% | 25.0–29.1% | 24.7–29.5% | 23.9–30.2% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 16.6% | 15.3–18.0% | 15.0–18.4% | 14.7–18.7% | 14.1–19.4% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.8–16.3% | 13.5–16.7% | 13.2–17.1% | 12.6–17.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.8–14.2% | 11.5–14.6% | 11.2–14.9% | 10.7–15.5% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.6–13.5% | 10.3–13.9% | 9.8–14.4% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.7–5.2% | 3.6–5.4% | 3.4–5.7% | 3.1–6.1% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.0% | 3.4–5.2% | 3.2–5.4% | 2.9–5.8% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.8–5.6% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.7–2.3% |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.7% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 25 | 24–29 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 22–29 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 16 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–16 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 11–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 3% | 98% | |
| 24 | 29% | 95% | |
| 25 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 26 | 4% | 48% | |
| 27 | 14% | 44% | |
| 28 | 4% | 30% | |
| 29 | 27% | 27% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 29% | 96% | |
| 16 | 49% | 68% | Median |
| 17 | 8% | 18% | |
| 18 | 11% | 11% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 11% | 98.7% | |
| 14 | 38% | 88% | Median |
| 15 | 40% | 49% | |
| 16 | 9% | 10% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 43% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 28% | 57% | Median |
| 13 | 6% | 29% | |
| 14 | 22% | 23% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 11 | 47% | 92% | Median |
| 12 | 35% | 45% | |
| 13 | 8% | 10% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 11% | 100% | |
| 4 | 55% | 89% | Median |
| 5 | 32% | 33% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 62% | 91% | Median |
| 5 | 24% | 29% | |
| 6 | 5% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 15% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 66% | 85% | Median |
| 5 | 19% | 19% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 85% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 15% | 15% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 79% | 81% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 67% | 67% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 82% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 18% | 18% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 25 | 0% | 24–29 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 22–29 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 0% | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 3% | 98% | |
| 24 | 29% | 95% | |
| 25 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 26 | 4% | 48% | |
| 27 | 14% | 44% | |
| 28 | 4% | 30% | |
| 29 | 27% | 27% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 43% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 28% | 57% | Median |
| 13 | 6% | 29% | |
| 14 | 22% | 23% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 60% | 94% | Median |
| 5 | 19% | 34% | |
| 6 | 15% | 15% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Infratest dimap
- Commissioner(s): ARD
- Fieldwork period: 31 August–2 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1319
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 4.57%