Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv and Stern, 8–14 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 25.7–28.4% | 25.3–28.8% | 25.0–29.1% | 24.4–29.8% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 18.0% | 16.9–19.2% | 16.6–19.5% | 16.3–19.8% | 15.8–20.4% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 15.8% | 14.7–16.9% | 14.4–17.2% | 14.2–17.5% | 13.7–18.1% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.8–13.3% | 10.6–13.6% | 10.2–14.1% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.8–13.3% | 10.6–13.6% | 10.2–14.1% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.7–4.9% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.4–5.2% | 3.1–5.6% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.8% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.3% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 28 | 25–28 | 25–28 | 24–28 | 23–28 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 18 | 17–18 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 15–19 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 15 | 15 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 13–17 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 11–12 | 11–12 | 10–12 | 10–13 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 24 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 8% | 96% | |
| 26 | 13% | 88% | |
| 27 | 3% | 75% | |
| 28 | 72% | 72% | Median |
| 29 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 17 | 13% | 95% | |
| 18 | 78% | 81% | Median |
| 19 | 3% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 14 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 15 | 88% | 95% | Median |
| 16 | 7% | 8% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 4% | 100% | |
| 11 | 12% | 96% | |
| 12 | 83% | 84% | Median |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 75% | 99.9% | Median |
| 11 | 11% | 25% | |
| 12 | 11% | 14% | |
| 13 | 3% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 90% | 96% | Median |
| 5 | 6% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 78% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 20% | 22% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 92% | 94% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 13% | 13% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.6% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 94% | 94% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 28 | 0% | 25–28 | 25–28 | 24–28 | 23–28 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 0% | 11–12 | 11–12 | 10–12 | 10–13 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 24 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 8% | 96% | |
| 26 | 13% | 88% | |
| 27 | 3% | 75% | |
| 28 | 72% | 72% | Median |
| 29 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 4% | 100% | |
| 11 | 12% | 96% | |
| 12 | 83% | 84% | Median |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 86% | 96% | Median |
| 4 | 8% | 10% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): RTL n-tv and Stern
- Fieldwork period: 8–14 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1851
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.55%