Opinion Poll by Allensbach for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 4–16 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 26.2–29.8% | 25.8–30.3% | 25.3–30.8% | 24.5–31.7% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 18.2% | 16.7–19.8% | 16.3–20.2% | 16.0–20.6% | 15.3–21.4% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.2% | 11.4–16.9% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.8–14.5% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.2% | 10.5–15.9% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.6% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.6% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.8% | 3.9–6.1% | 3.7–6.3% | 3.4–6.8% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–4.9% | 2.4–5.4% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.3% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.1–1.2% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 27 | 25–29 | 24–30 | 23–30 | 22–30 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 13 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–15 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 2% | 98% | |
| 24 | 5% | 96% | |
| 25 | 11% | 91% | |
| 26 | 26% | 80% | |
| 27 | 26% | 54% | Median |
| 28 | 17% | 28% | |
| 29 | 5% | 11% | |
| 30 | 6% | 6% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 16 | 8% | 95% | |
| 17 | 26% | 88% | |
| 18 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 19 | 40% | 44% | |
| 20 | 3% | 4% | |
| 21 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 36% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 26% | 64% | Median |
| 14 | 21% | 38% | |
| 15 | 6% | 17% | |
| 16 | 11% | 11% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 29% | 99.0% | |
| 12 | 31% | 70% | Median |
| 13 | 26% | 39% | |
| 14 | 8% | 13% | |
| 15 | 4% | 5% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 10% | 98.7% | |
| 9 | 52% | 89% | Median |
| 10 | 13% | 37% | |
| 11 | 23% | 24% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 21% | 98% | |
| 5 | 58% | 77% | Median |
| 6 | 18% | 19% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 43% | 96% | |
| 5 | 45% | 53% | Median |
| 6 | 8% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 73% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 21% | 25% | |
| 5 | 3% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 84% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 16% | 16% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 71% | 78% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 60% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 40% | 40% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 49% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 51% | 51% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 27 | 0% | 25–29 | 24–30 | 23–30 | 22–30 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 0% | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–15 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 2–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 2% | 98% | |
| 24 | 5% | 96% | |
| 25 | 11% | 91% | |
| 26 | 26% | 80% | |
| 27 | 26% | 54% | Median |
| 28 | 17% | 28% | |
| 29 | 5% | 11% | |
| 30 | 6% | 6% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 29% | 99.0% | |
| 12 | 31% | 70% | Median |
| 13 | 26% | 39% | |
| 14 | 8% | 13% | |
| 15 | 4% | 5% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 35% | 98.7% | |
| 4 | 52% | 64% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 12% | |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
- Fieldwork period: 4–16 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1051
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.44%