Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 14–18 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 29.0% 27.4–30.8% 26.9–31.2% 26.5–31.7% 25.8–32.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 15.8% 14.5–17.2% 14.2–17.6% 13.9–18.0% 13.3–18.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.4–15.7% 12.1–16.1% 11.6–16.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 13.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.5–14.7% 11.2–15.0% 10.7–15.7%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.8–13.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.4% 3.6–6.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.2% 3.6–5.1% 3.4–5.3% 3.2–5.5% 2.9–6.0%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.6% 0.9–2.9%
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.7%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 26–27 25–28 25–29 25–30
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 15 14–15 14–15 13–16 12–17
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 13–14 13–14 12–14 11–15
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 13–14 12–14 12–14 10–15
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 12 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–12
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 5 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–6
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 4 4 4–5 3–5 3–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 2 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 9% 99.9%  
26 70% 91% Median
27 12% 20%  
28 4% 9%  
29 3% 4%  
30 1.0% 1.1%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 2% 100%  
13 2% 98%  
14 19% 96%  
15 73% 76% Median
16 2% 3%  
17 1.3% 1.5%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 1.1% 100%  
12 3% 98.9%  
13 72% 96% Median
14 22% 24%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.7% 100%  
11 0.8% 99.3%  
12 5% 98%  
13 20% 93%  
14 73% 74% Median
15 0.6% 0.6%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 9% 98%  
11 14% 89%  
12 75% 75% Median
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 4% 99.7%  
5 83% 95% Median
6 13% 13%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 4% 99.9%  
4 89% 96% Median
5 6% 7%  
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 70% 100% Median
3 25% 30%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 19% 100%  
2 80% 81% Median
3 0.8% 0.8%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 94% 99.9% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 84% 85% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Last Result, Median
1 29% 29%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 0% 26–27 25–28 25–29 25–30
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 13–14 12–14 12–14 10–15
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 2 0% 2–4 2–4 2–5 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 9% 99.9%  
26 70% 91% Median
27 12% 20%  
28 4% 9%  
29 3% 4%  
30 1.0% 1.1%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.7% 100%  
11 0.8% 99.3%  
12 5% 98%  
13 20% 93%  
14 73% 74% Median
15 0.6% 0.6%  
16 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 57% 100% Median
3 24% 43%  
4 16% 19%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations