Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, 22–24 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 28.0% 26.5–29.6% 26.0–30.1% 25.7–30.5% 25.0–31.2%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 16.6% 15.3–17.9% 15.0–18.3% 14.7–18.6% 14.1–19.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.6% 12.3–16.0% 11.7–16.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 13.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.6–14.6% 11.3–14.9% 10.8–15.5%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.0% 11.0–13.2% 10.7–13.6% 10.4–13.9% 9.9–14.5%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.7% 4.0–5.5% 3.8–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.4–6.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.4% 3.8–5.2% 3.6–5.4% 3.4–5.6% 3.1–6.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.4%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.0% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.8–2.5%
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.9%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.5%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.1%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 26 26 26–28 25–29
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 16 16 16 15–16 14–17
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 14 14 14 13–14 12–15
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 12 12 12–13 11–14
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 12 12 12 11–12 10–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 4 4 4–5 4–5
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 4 4 4 4 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3 3 3 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 1.2% 99.7%  
26 95% 98% Median
27 1.2% 4%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.3% 0.7%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.6% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.3%  
16 95% 97% Median
17 2% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 2% 98%  
14 95% 96% Median
15 0.8% 1.0%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.3% 99.8%  
12 95% 98% Median
13 3% 3%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 4% 99.2%  
12 95% 95% Median
13 0.8% 0.9%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 96% 99.6% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.7% 100%  
4 98% 99.3% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 97% 98% Median
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 95% 100% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 98.9% 99.8% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 96% 96% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 0% 26 26 26–28 25–29
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 12 12 12–13 11–14
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 5 5 5 4–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 1.2% 99.7%  
26 95% 98% Median
27 1.2% 4%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.3% 0.7%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.3% 99.8%  
12 95% 98% Median
13 3% 3%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 2% 99.6%  
5 96% 98% Median
6 1.2% 1.3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations