Opinion Poll by Ipsos for DER SPIEGEL, 30 September–4 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 26.7–29.3% | 26.4–29.7% | 26.1–30.0% | 25.5–30.7% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 15.8% | 14.8–16.9% | 14.5–17.2% | 14.3–17.5% | 13.8–18.0% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 14.0–16.1% | 13.7–16.4% | 13.5–16.6% | 13.0–17.1% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 12.1–14.0% | 11.8–14.3% | 11.6–14.5% | 11.2–15.0% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.6–13.5% | 10.2–14.0% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.7–4.8% | 3.5–5.0% | 3.4–5.2% | 3.2–5.5% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.1–4.1% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.4–2.1% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.6% |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 27 | 25–28 | 25–29 | 25–29 | 24–29 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 16 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 11–12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 25 | 14% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 11% | 86% | |
| 27 | 53% | 74% | Median |
| 28 | 15% | 21% | |
| 29 | 6% | 7% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 10% | 98% | |
| 15 | 35% | 88% | |
| 16 | 49% | 53% | Median |
| 17 | 4% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 5% | 100% | |
| 13 | 26% | 95% | |
| 14 | 34% | 69% | Median |
| 15 | 31% | 35% | |
| 16 | 4% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 57% | 92% | Median |
| 13 | 25% | 35% | |
| 14 | 10% | 10% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 58% | 94% | Median |
| 12 | 32% | 36% | |
| 13 | 4% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 11% | 100% | |
| 4 | 70% | 89% | Median |
| 5 | 19% | 19% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 15% | 100% | |
| 4 | 81% | 85% | Median |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 18% | 100% | |
| 3 | 80% | 82% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 30% | 100% | |
| 2 | 69% | 70% | Median |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 46% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 54% | 54% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 27 | 0% | 25–28 | 25–29 | 25–29 | 24–29 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 0% | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 25 | 14% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 11% | 86% | |
| 27 | 53% | 74% | Median |
| 28 | 15% | 21% | |
| 29 | 6% | 7% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 57% | 92% | Median |
| 13 | 25% | 35% | |
| 14 | 10% | 10% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 51% | 94% | |
| 4 | 42% | 43% | Median |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): DER SPIEGEL
- Fieldwork period: 30 September–4 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 2002
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.13%