Opinion Poll by pollytix, 16–19 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 28.7% | 27.1–30.3% | 26.7–30.8% | 26.3–31.2% | 25.5–32.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.8% | 13.6–16.2% | 13.3–16.6% | 13.0–16.9% | 12.5–17.5% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 14.8% | 13.6–16.2% | 13.3–16.6% | 13.0–16.9% | 12.5–17.5% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.8% | 12.7–15.2% | 12.3–15.5% | 12.1–15.8% | 11.5–16.5% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.9% | 9.9–12.1% | 9.6–12.5% | 9.3–12.7% | 8.9–13.3% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.2–5.8% | 4.0–6.0% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.6–6.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.3–4.7% | 3.1–4.9% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.7–5.5% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.3–4.7% | 3.1–4.9% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.7–5.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.8% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.2% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 27 | 25–28 | 24–29 | 24–29 | 24–30 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 8% | 92% | |
| 26 | 17% | 84% | |
| 27 | 46% | 66% | Median |
| 28 | 12% | 20% | |
| 29 | 6% | 8% | |
| 30 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 12% | 90% | |
| 14 | 36% | 77% | Median |
| 15 | 29% | 41% | |
| 16 | 11% | 12% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 20% | 96% | |
| 14 | 59% | 76% | Median |
| 15 | 14% | 18% | |
| 16 | 3% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 6% | 96% | |
| 13 | 28% | 90% | |
| 14 | 50% | 62% | Median |
| 15 | 8% | 13% | |
| 16 | 4% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 11% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 15% | 89% | |
| 11 | 60% | 74% | Median |
| 12 | 13% | 14% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 31% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 61% | 68% | Median |
| 6 | 6% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 41% | 99.3% | |
| 4 | 54% | 58% | Median |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 38% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 47% | 62% | Median |
| 5 | 14% | 14% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 43% | 100% | |
| 2 | 56% | 57% | Median |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 91% | Median |
| 2 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 62% | 62% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 41% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 59% | 59% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 27 | 0% | 25–28 | 24–29 | 24–29 | 24–30 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 8% | 92% | |
| 26 | 17% | 84% | |
| 27 | 46% | 66% | Median |
| 28 | 12% | 20% | |
| 29 | 6% | 8% | |
| 30 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 12% | 90% | |
| 14 | 36% | 77% | Median |
| 15 | 29% | 41% | |
| 16 | 11% | 12% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 22% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 37% | 77% | |
| 5 | 38% | 41% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: pollytix
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 16–19 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1300
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.48%