Opinion Poll by Verian for FOCUS, 14–20 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 28.0% 26.6–29.6% 26.1–30.0% 25.8–30.4% 25.1–31.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.7–18.6%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 15.8% 14.6–17.1% 14.3–17.4% 14.0–17.7% 13.5–18.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 13.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.6–14.5% 11.4–14.8% 10.9–15.4%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.8–12.5% 9.5–12.7% 9.1–13.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.2% 3.6–5.0% 3.4–5.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.0–5.8%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.3%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 25–29 25–29 24–29 24–29
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 15 14–16 14–17 13–17 13–18
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 15 14–17 14–17 13–17 13–18
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 11–14 11–14 10–15 10–15
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 9–11 9–12 9–13 8–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 4% 99.9%  
25 5% 95%  
26 20% 90%  
27 26% 70% Median
28 27% 43%  
29 16% 16%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.3% 100%  
13 3% 99.7%  
14 28% 96%  
15 27% 68% Median
16 33% 41%  
17 7% 8%  
18 0.6% 0.7%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.3% 100%  
13 4% 99.6%  
14 19% 96%  
15 28% 76% Median
16 32% 48%  
17 15% 16%  
18 0.9% 0.9%  
19 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 3% 100%  
11 17% 97%  
12 46% 81% Median
13 22% 34%  
14 8% 12%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.0% 100%  
9 13% 99.0%  
10 27% 86%  
11 51% 59% Median
12 5% 9%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 11% 100%  
4 75% 89% Median
5 13% 14%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 48% 100%  
3 39% 52% Median
4 12% 12%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 35% 100%  
3 50% 65% Median
4 14% 14%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 11% 100%  
2 80% 89% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 75% 100% Median
2 25% 25%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 93% 98% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100% Last Result
1 73% 73% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 0% 25–29 25–29 24–29 24–29
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 11–14 11–14 10–15 10–15
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 3 0% 2–5 2–5 2–5 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 4% 99.9%  
25 5% 95%  
26 20% 90%  
27 26% 70% Median
28 27% 43%  
29 16% 16%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 3% 100%  
11 17% 97%  
12 46% 81% Median
13 22% 34%  
14 8% 12%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 15% 100%  
3 44% 85%  
4 29% 40% Median
5 12% 12%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations