Alternative für Deutschland (NI)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 17.1% | 15.3–19.0% | 14.9–19.5% | 14.6–20.0% | 13.9–20.8% |
| 12–15 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.0% | 17.0–19.0% | 16.8–19.3% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% |
| 9–15 July 2024 | Forsa | 16.0% | 15.0–17.1% | 14.7–17.4% | 14.4–17.6% | 14.0–18.2% |
| 8–12 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.0% | 16.8–19.4% | 16.4–19.8% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.5–20.7% |
| 9–11 July 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17.0% | 15.7–18.5% | 15.3–18.9% | 14.9–19.3% | 14.3–20.1% |
| 3–9 July 2024 | Verian | 16.0% | 14.8–17.3% | 14.5–17.7% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.7–18.6% |
| 5–8 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–8 July 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | 16.0–18.1% | 15.7–18.4% | 15.4–18.7% | 15.0–19.3% |
| 5–7 July 2024 | Ipsos | 16.0% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.2–19.2% |
| 1–5 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3 July 2024 | YouGov | 18.8% | 17.6–20.1% | 17.3–20.4% | 17.0–20.7% | 16.5–21.4% |
| 1–3 July 2024 | Infratest dimap | 17.0% | 15.7–18.4% | 15.4–18.8% | 15.0–19.2% | 14.4–19.8% |
| 1 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1 July 2024 | Forsa | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–28 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.0% | 15.7–18.5% | 15.3–18.9% | 15.0–19.3% | 14.4–20.0% |
| 25–27 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17.0% | 15.6–18.6% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.9–19.4% | 14.2–20.2% |
| 21–24 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–24 June 2024 | Forsa | 16.0% | 15.0–17.1% | 14.7–17.4% | 14.5–17.7% | 14.0–18.2% |
| 17–21 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–17 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–17 June 2024 | GMS | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
| 11–17 June 2024 | Forsa | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–15 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–13 June 2024 | Allensbach | 15.0% | 13.7–16.5% | 13.4–16.9% | 13.0–17.3% | 12.4–18.0% |
| 10–12 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–11 June 2024 | Verian | 17.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.4–18.7% | 15.1–19.0% | 14.5–19.7% |
| 7–10 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–10 June 2024 | Forsa | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Alternative für Deutschland (NI).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 11% | 98% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 23% | 86% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 24% | 64% | Median |
| 17.5–18.5% | 22% | 39% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 13% | 17% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 4% | 5% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 16 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| 12–15 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 16–20 |
| 9–15 July 2024 | Forsa | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14–16 | 14–16 |
| 8–12 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 16 | 16–17 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 14–20 |
| 9–11 July 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
| 3–9 July 2024 | Verian | 15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–18 |
| 5–8 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 2–8 July 2024 | Forsa | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16–17 | 15–18 |
| 5–7 July 2024 | Ipsos | 16 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–17 |
| 1–5 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 3 July 2024 | YouGov | 19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 |
| 1–3 July 2024 | Infratest dimap | 17 | 17 | 17 | 15–17 | 14–18 |
| 1 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 1 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 24–28 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 16 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 |
| 25–27 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17 | 16–17 | 15–17 | 14–17 | 14–19 |
| 21–24 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 18–24 June 2024 | Forsa | 16 | 15–17 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–17 |
| 17–21 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 14–17 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 11–17 June 2024 | GMS | 19 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–21 |
| 11–17 June 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 10–15 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 1–13 June 2024 | Allensbach | 13 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–18 |
| 10–12 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | |||||
| 5–11 June 2024 | Verian | 16 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 14–19 |
| 7–10 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 4–10 June 2024 | Forsa |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Alternative für Deutschland (NI).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 14 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 17% | 92% | |
| 16 | 28% | 75% | Median |
| 17 | 19% | 46% | |
| 18 | 10% | 28% | |
| 19 | 17% | 18% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |