Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 25–27 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 24.4% 22.8–26.2% 22.3–26.7% 21.9–27.1% 21.2–28.0%
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 17.0% 15.6–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.9–19.4% 14.2–20.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.4–15.9% 12.0–16.2% 11.4–17.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 13.0% 11.7–14.4% 11.4–14.8% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–15.9%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.5% 5.7–7.6% 5.4–7.9% 5.2–8.2% 4.8–8.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.8%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.8% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.9–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.1%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.3%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.3%
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.2%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 23 20–26 20–26 20–26 20–26
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 17 16–17 15–17 14–17 14–19
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 12–14 12–14 12–15 12–15
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 12–13 11–13 11–14 10–15
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–9
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–6
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 4 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 1–3
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–3
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 100%  
20 14% 99.8%  
21 26% 85%  
22 5% 60%  
23 5% 55% Median
24 0.4% 50%  
25 2% 49%  
26 48% 48%  
27 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 4% 99.9%  
15 4% 95%  
16 4% 92%  
17 85% 87% Median
18 1.2% 2%  
19 1.2% 1.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.2% 99.9%  
12 52% 99.7% Median
13 6% 48%  
14 39% 42%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.1% 99.9%  
11 8% 98.9%  
12 29% 91%  
13 58% 61% Median
14 2% 3%  
15 1.0% 1.0%  
16 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.2% 100%  
6 39% 98.8%  
7 55% 60% Median
8 4% 5%  
9 1.1% 1.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 50% 98% Median
6 24% 49%  
7 21% 25%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 53% 99.9% Median
4 44% 47%  
5 2% 3%  
6 1.3% 1.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 13% 100%  
3 32% 87%  
4 55% 55% Median
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 91% 98% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 96% 97% Median
3 1.3% 1.4%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 67% 100% Median
2 32% 33%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 42% 99.7%  
2 57% 57% Median
3 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 22% 23%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Last Result, Median
1 30% 30%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei des Fortschritts (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Last Result, Median
1 34% 34%  
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 26%  
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 31 0% 27–31 27–31 27–31 26–33
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 17 0% 16–17 15–17 14–17 14–19
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 12–14 12–14 12–15 12–15
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 8 0% 7–8 7–9 7–10 7–10
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–8

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 2% 100%  
27 22% 98%  
28 17% 77% Median
29 5% 60%  
30 1.1% 55%  
31 52% 54%  
32 0.3% 2%  
33 1.2% 1.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 4% 99.9%  
15 4% 95%  
16 4% 92%  
17 85% 87% Median
18 1.2% 2%  
19 1.2% 1.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.2% 99.9%  
12 52% 99.7% Median
13 6% 48%  
14 39% 42%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.5% 100%  
7 13% 99.5%  
8 78% 87% Median
9 6% 9%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.6% 100%  
5 53% 99.4% Median
6 43% 46%  
7 3% 4%  
8 0.7% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations