Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 9–11 July 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 25.3% | 23.7–27.0% | 23.2–27.5% | 22.8–27.9% | 22.1–28.7% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 17.0% | 15.7–18.5% | 15.3–18.9% | 14.9–19.3% | 14.3–20.1% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.8–15.4% | 12.4–15.8% | 12.1–16.2% | 11.6–16.9% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.8–14.3% | 11.4–14.7% | 11.2–15.1% | 10.6–15.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.9–8.4% | 5.7–8.7% | 5.3–9.2% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.8% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.6–8.1% | 5.4–8.4% | 5.0–8.9% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.8% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.8% | 1.0–3.1% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 1.0–3.0% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.1–1.2% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 25 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–27 | 21–27 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 17 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 9–15 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 12% | 92% | |
| 23 | 13% | 80% | |
| 24 | 14% | 67% | |
| 25 | 47% | 53% | Median |
| 26 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 27 | 4% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 9% | 98% | |
| 15 | 10% | 89% | |
| 16 | 26% | 79% | |
| 17 | 24% | 52% | Median |
| 18 | 21% | 29% | |
| 19 | 8% | 8% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 18% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 13% | 82% | |
| 13 | 23% | 69% | Median |
| 14 | 13% | 46% | |
| 15 | 31% | 33% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 4% | 96% | |
| 11 | 32% | 93% | |
| 12 | 30% | 61% | Median |
| 13 | 26% | 31% | |
| 14 | 4% | 5% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 50% | 98.6% | Median |
| 7 | 42% | 48% | |
| 8 | 6% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 68% | 98.6% | Median |
| 7 | 17% | 30% | |
| 8 | 13% | 13% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 37% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 31% | 63% | Median |
| 5 | 29% | 32% | |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 14% | 100% | |
| 3 | 66% | 86% | Median |
| 4 | 9% | 19% | |
| 5 | 10% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 8% | 100% | |
| 2 | 86% | 92% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 30% | 100% | |
| 2 | 64% | 70% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 85% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 15% | 15% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 97% | Median |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 51% | 52% | Median |
| 2 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 32% | 32% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 48% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 20% | 20% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 31 | 0% | 30–33 | 30–33 | 29–34 | 29–35 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 17 | 0% | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 18% | 97% | |
| 31 | 45% | 79% | |
| 32 | 20% | 34% | Median |
| 33 | 10% | 14% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 9% | 98% | |
| 15 | 10% | 89% | |
| 16 | 26% | 79% | |
| 17 | 24% | 52% | Median |
| 18 | 21% | 29% | |
| 19 | 8% | 8% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 18% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 13% | 82% | |
| 13 | 23% | 69% | Median |
| 14 | 13% | 46% | |
| 15 | 31% | 33% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 49% | 99.5% | Median |
| 8 | 35% | 50% | |
| 9 | 12% | 15% | |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 37% | 99.0% | |
| 6 | 33% | 62% | Median |
| 7 | 25% | 29% | |
| 8 | 5% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–11 July 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1140
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 4.44%