Opinion Poll by Forsa, 18–24 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 24.5% 23.3–25.8% 23.0–26.1% 22.7–26.4% 22.1–27.0%
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.5% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.4%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.0% 1.5–3.3%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.2% 1.8–2.7% 1.7–2.8% 1.6–2.9% 1.5–3.2%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 1.6% 1.3–2.1% 1.2–2.2% 1.2–2.3% 1.0–2.5%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.1%
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 24 23–24 22–24 21–24 21–25
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 16 15–17 14–17 14–17 14–17
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 14–15 13–16 13–16 12–16
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 10 10–11 10–11 10–12 8–12
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 6 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 3% 99.9%  
22 2% 97%  
23 43% 95%  
24 50% 51% Median
25 1.5% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 8% 99.8%  
15 14% 91%  
16 52% 78% Median
17 26% 26%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 1.3% 100%  
13 6% 98.7%  
14 48% 93% Median
15 37% 45%  
16 8% 8%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.5% 100%  
9 0.7% 99.5%  
10 84% 98.8% Median
11 11% 15%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.6% 100%  
6 56% 99.4% Median
7 32% 44%  
8 9% 11%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 31% 100%  
6 67% 69% Median
7 1.4% 2%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 19% 99.7%  
5 75% 81% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 32% 100%  
3 67% 68% Median
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 50% 100% Median
3 49% 49%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 90% 99.7% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 29% 100%  
2 70% 71% Median
3 0.8% 0.8%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 72% 100% Median
2 28% 28%  
3 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Last Result, Median
1 41% 41%  
2 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 85% 85% Median
2 0% 0%  

Partei des Fortschritts (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 30 0% 29–31 29–31 28–31 28–32
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 16 0% 15–17 14–17 14–17 14–17
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 14–15 13–16 13–16 12–16
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 8 0% 8–9 8–10 8–10 7–11
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 8 0% 7–8 6–9 6–9 6–9

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 3% 99.7%  
29 39% 97%  
30 12% 57%  
31 44% 45% Median
32 1.4% 1.5%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 8% 99.8%  
15 14% 91%  
16 52% 78% Median
17 26% 26%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 1.3% 100%  
13 6% 98.7%  
14 48% 93% Median
15 37% 45%  
16 8% 8%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 1.1% 100%  
8 81% 98.9% Median
9 8% 18%  
10 7% 10%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 6% 100%  
7 38% 94%  
8 51% 56% Median
9 5% 5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations