Opinion Poll by Forsa, 9–15 July 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 25.2% | 24.0–26.5% | 23.7–26.9% | 23.4–27.2% | 22.8–27.8% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 15.0–17.1% | 14.7–17.4% | 14.4–17.6% | 14.0–18.2% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 13.0–15.0% | 12.8–15.3% | 12.5–15.6% | 12.1–16.1% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.2–11.9% | 9.9–12.2% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.3–12.9% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.7–8.6% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.7% | 6.1–7.5% | 5.9–7.7% | 5.7–7.9% | 5.4–8.3% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.5–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.9–2.7% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.5–3.2% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.8–2.6% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.4–3.1% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.3–2.0% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–1.0% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.6% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 24–25 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14–16 | 14–16 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei des Fortschritts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 7% | 97% | |
| 24 | 47% | 91% | Median |
| 25 | 44% | 44% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 94% | 97% | Median |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 43% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 57% | |
| 13 | 45% | 55% | Median |
| 14 | 3% | 10% | |
| 15 | 5% | 7% | |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 39% | 100% | |
| 10 | 9% | 61% | |
| 11 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 12 | 44% | 44% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 47% | 100% | |
| 7 | 51% | 53% | Median |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 50% | 97% | Median |
| 7 | 47% | 47% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 48% | 97% | Median |
| 6 | 49% | 49% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 3 | 60% | 99.1% | Median |
| 4 | 39% | 39% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 54% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 46% | 46% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 8% | 100% | |
| 2 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 62% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 38% | 38% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 86% | 86% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 50% | 50% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei des Fortschritts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 31 | 0% | 30–32 | 30–32 | 30–32 | 30–32 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 15 | 15 | 14–16 | 14–16 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 11–14 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–9 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 10% | 99.5% | |
| 31 | 51% | 89% | Median |
| 32 | 38% | 38% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 94% | 97% | Median |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 43% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 57% | |
| 13 | 45% | 55% | Median |
| 14 | 3% | 10% | |
| 15 | 5% | 7% | |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 47% | 97% | |
| 9 | 50% | 51% | Median |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 44% | 97% | Median |
| 8 | 53% | 53% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–15 July 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2052
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.00%