Opinion Poll by Verian, 5–11 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 23.7% 22.3–25.2% 21.9–25.6% 21.6–26.0% 20.9–26.7%
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.4–18.7% 15.1–19.0% 14.5–19.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.7% 14.2–18.0% 13.6–18.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 13.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.6–14.5% 11.3–14.8% 10.8–15.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.3% 5.5–7.2% 5.3–7.5% 5.2–7.7% 4.8–8.2%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.2% 4.9–7.4% 4.6–7.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.4%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.4%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.6%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.1%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.5–1.4% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.7%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.1–1.0%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.1–1.0%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.9%
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 23 21–24 21–24 21–25 20–27
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 16 15–17 15–17 15–18 14–19
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 13–15 13–16 13–16 13–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 14 12–14 11–14 10–14 10–14
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 6 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–5
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.6% 100%  
21 20% 99.3%  
22 4% 80%  
23 47% 76% Median
24 25% 28%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.2% 1.1%  
27 0.9% 0.9%  
28 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.9%  
15 48% 99.2%  
16 13% 51% Median
17 34% 39%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0.7% 0.7%  
20 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 10% 99.9%  
14 48% 90% Median
15 37% 42%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0.5% 1.5%  
18 1.0% 1.0%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 3% 97%  
12 20% 94%  
13 20% 75%  
14 54% 55% Median
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.4% 100%  
5 8% 99.6%  
6 69% 92% Median
7 22% 23%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 10% 100%  
5 5% 90%  
6 77% 86% Median
7 8% 9%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 15% 100%  
4 64% 85% Median
5 20% 21%  
6 1.0% 1.0%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 16% 100%  
3 77% 84% Median
4 5% 7%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 45% 100%  
3 52% 55% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 25% 100%  
2 75% 75% Median
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100% Last Result
1 85% 98.6% Median
2 13% 13%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.5% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98.5% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100% Last Result
1 56% 56% Median
2 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 26% 26%  
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Last Result, Median
1 40% 40%  
2 0% 0%  

Partei des Fortschritts (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100% Last Result
1 68% 68% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 30 0% 27–31 27–31 27–31 27–33
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 16 0% 15–17 15–17 15–18 14–19
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 13–15 13–16 13–16 13–18
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–9 6–9 6–10
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 7 0% 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 20% 99.8%  
28 9% 80%  
29 1.4% 71%  
30 35% 70% Median
31 34% 35%  
32 0.6% 2%  
33 1.0% 1.0%  
34 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.9%  
15 48% 99.2%  
16 13% 51% Median
17 34% 39%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0.7% 0.7%  
20 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 10% 99.9%  
14 48% 90% Median
15 37% 42%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0.5% 1.5%  
18 1.0% 1.0%  
19 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 27% 100%  
7 55% 73% Median
8 11% 18%  
9 6% 7%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 9% 100%  
6 5% 91%  
7 66% 86% Median
8 18% 20%  
9 1.2% 1.4%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations