Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 1–13 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 25.3% 23.6–27.0% 23.2–27.5% 22.8–28.0% 22.0–28.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–17.9% 13.9–18.3% 13.3–19.0%
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 15.0% 13.7–16.5% 13.4–16.9% 13.0–17.3% 12.4–18.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 13.0% 11.8–14.4% 11.4–14.8% 11.1–15.2% 10.6–15.8%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.7% 5.9–7.8% 5.6–8.1% 5.4–8.4% 5.0–8.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.4–8.1%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.8% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.8–2.7%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.6%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.7%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 24 23–25 22–25 21–26 20–26
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 16 13–16 13–16 13–17 13–18
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 13 13–18 13–18 13–18 12–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 11–15 11–15 11–15 10–15
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 7 7 6–7 6–7 5–9
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 7 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.8% 100%  
21 2% 99.2%  
22 7% 97%  
23 37% 91%  
24 10% 53% Median
25 38% 43%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 26% 99.9%  
14 7% 74%  
15 10% 67%  
16 53% 57% Median
17 3% 4%  
18 0.9% 1.0%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.6% 100%  
13 64% 99.4% Median
14 11% 36%  
15 4% 25%  
16 9% 20%  
17 0.4% 12%  
18 11% 11%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 1.1% 100%  
11 15% 98.9%  
12 6% 84%  
13 49% 77% Median
14 2% 28%  
15 26% 26%  
16 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.2% 100%  
6 7% 98.8%  
7 90% 92% Median
8 1.1% 2%  
9 1.0% 1.0%  
10 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 17% 99.9%  
6 4% 82%  
7 77% 79% Median
8 1.4% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 43% 98%  
6 25% 55% Median
7 27% 30%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 59% 99.9% Median
3 39% 41%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 55% 100% Median
2 42% 45%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 42% 100%  
2 58% 58% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 69% 100% Median
2 31% 31%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 87% 88% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 13% 13%  
2 0% 0%  

Partei des Fortschritts (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 47% 47%  
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0 31 0% 28–32 28–32 28–32 27–33
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 13 0% 13–18 13–18 13–18 12–18
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 16 0% 13–16 13–16 13–17 13–18
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 8 0% 8–9 7–9 7–9 6–11
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 7 0% 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–11

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 100%  
27 2% 99.8%  
28 14% 98%  
29 3% 85%  
30 31% 82%  
31 11% 51% Median
32 39% 40%  
33 0.8% 0.9%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.6% 100%  
13 64% 99.4% Median
14 11% 36%  
15 4% 25%  
16 9% 20%  
17 0.4% 12%  
18 11% 11%  
19 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 26% 99.9%  
14 7% 74%  
15 10% 67%  
16 53% 57% Median
17 3% 4%  
18 0.9% 1.0%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.2% 100%  
7 6% 98.8%  
8 62% 93% Median
9 30% 31%  
10 0.2% 1.0%  
11 0.8% 0.8%  
12 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 43% 99.9%  
7 12% 57% Median
8 15% 44%  
9 27% 29%  
10 0.2% 2%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations