Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 8–12 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 23.7% 22.3–25.1% 21.9–25.6% 21.6–25.9% 20.9–26.7%
Alternative für Deutschland (NI) 0.0% 18.0% 16.8–19.4% 16.4–19.8% 16.1–20.1% 15.5–20.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 15.0% 13.8–16.2% 13.5–16.6% 13.2–16.9% 12.7–17.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.0% 11.0–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.4–13.8% 10.0–14.4%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.3% 5.5–7.2% 5.3–7.4% 5.1–7.7% 4.8–8.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.2% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.7%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 0.9–2.7%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.3% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.1%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 1 23 21–23 21–23 20–24 20–24
Alternative für Deutschland (NI) 1 16 16–17 16–18 16–19 14–20
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 1 16 13–16 13–16 13–16 12–17
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 1 12 10–14 10–14 10–14 9–14
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 1 8 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 1 7 6–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 1 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 1 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Freie Wähler (RE) 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 1 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 1 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partei des Fortschritts (*) 1 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 3% 99.9%  
21 14% 97%  
22 15% 82%  
23 64% 67% Median
24 3% 3%  
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.6% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.4%  
16 71% 98.7% Median
17 19% 28%  
18 6% 9%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.7% 0.7%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.3% 100%  
12 1.5% 99.7%  
13 19% 98%  
14 19% 79%  
15 2% 60%  
16 57% 58% Median
17 1.0% 1.0%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.7% 100%  
10 13% 99.3%  
11 3% 86%  
12 47% 83% Median
13 18% 36%  
14 19% 19%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 5% 100%  
8 54% 95% Median
9 27% 40%  
10 13% 14%  
11 1.1% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.2% 100%  
5 4% 98.8%  
6 26% 94%  
7 68% 68% Median
8 0.5% 0.6%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 41% 99.7%  
5 45% 59% Median
6 14% 14%  
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100% Last Result
2 93% 93% Median
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 60% 100% Last Result, Median
2 39% 40%  
3 1.4% 1.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 59% 100% Last Result, Median
2 40% 41%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 93% 100% Last Result, Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 96% 99.4% Last Result, Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Median
1 29% 29% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100%  
1 62% 62% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Partei des Fortschritts (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei des Fortschritts (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Median
1 9% 9% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 3% 3% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 3 30 0% 28–31 27–31 27–31 25–31
Alternative für Deutschland (NI) – Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 3 26 0% 25–27 25–28 25–29 24–31
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 1 16 0% 13–16 13–16 13–16 12–17
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 2 6 0% 5–8 5–8 5–8 5–8

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.6% 100%  
26 1.3% 99.4%  
27 5% 98%  
28 13% 93%  
29 19% 80%  
30 20% 61%  
31 41% 42% Median
32 0.4% 0.4%  
33 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (NI) – Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.3% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.7%  
25 42% 99.2% Median
26 33% 57%  
27 15% 24%  
28 5% 9%  
29 2% 4%  
30 1.0% 2%  
31 0.9% 0.9%  
32 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.3% 100%  
12 1.5% 99.7%  
13 19% 98%  
14 19% 79%  
15 2% 60%  
16 57% 58% Median
17 1.0% 1.0%  
18 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 22% 99.8%  
6 55% 78% Median
7 9% 23%  
8 13% 14%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations