Opinion Poll by Félagsvísindastofnun for Morgunblaðið, 25–28 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 28.8% 26.9–30.7% 26.4–31.3% 26.0–31.7% 25.1–32.7%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 24.3% 22.5–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.6–27.1% 20.9–28.0%
Píratar 14.5% 11.6% 10.3–13.0% 10.0–13.4% 9.7–13.7% 9.1–14.4%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.5–9.9%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.6% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 6.5% 5.6–7.7% 5.3–8.0% 5.1–8.3% 4.7–8.8%
Viðreisn 10.5% 4.8% 4.0–5.9% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.4% 3.3–6.9%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.1–6.7%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 21 20–22 19–23 18–23 17–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 17 15–18 15–19 14–20 14–21
Píratar 10 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Samfylkingin 3 5 4–6 4–6 3–6 3–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 4 4–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Flokkur fólksins 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–6 0–6
Viðreisn 7 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Miðflokkurinn 0 2 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Björt framtíð 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.6% 100%  
18 3% 99.4%  
19 6% 97%  
20 15% 90%  
21 32% 75% Median
22 35% 43%  
23 6% 8%  
24 0.7% 1.3%  
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.9%  
15 8% 97%  
16 23% 89%  
17 30% 66% Median
18 29% 37%  
19 5% 8%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
22 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 10% 98%  
7 30% 88%  
8 47% 58% Median
9 10% 12%  
10 1.2% 1.3% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 4% 100% Last Result
4 29% 96%  
5 47% 68% Median
6 19% 20%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 6% 100%  
4 53% 94% Median
5 39% 42%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 17% 98%  
4 50% 81% Median
5 28% 31%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Median
1 0% 40%  
2 2% 40%  
3 29% 38%  
4 8% 8%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100% Last Result
1 16% 79%  
2 16% 63% Median
3 42% 47%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 61% 100% Median
1 22% 39%  
2 0.7% 18%  
3 16% 17%  
4 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 31 38 100% 36–40 35–41 35–41 34–42
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 35 99.7% 34–38 33–38 33–39 32–40
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 30 35 98% 33–37 32–37 32–38 31–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð 27 34 97% 32–36 32–37 31–37 30–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin 23 34 89% 31–35 31–36 30–36 29–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 32 68% 30–35 29–35 29–35 28–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 30 21% 28–32 28–33 27–33 26–34
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 29 2% 27–30 26–30 26–31 25–32
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 13 28 0.6% 26–30 25–30 25–31 23–32
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 18 27 0.4% 25–30 24–30 24–30 23–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 26 0% 24–27 24–28 23–29 22–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 26 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 22–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 29 23 0% 21–25 21–25 20–26 19–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 23 0% 21–25 20–25 20–26 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 22 0% 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 22 0% 20–23 19–23 18–24 18–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 19 0% 17–22 16–22 16–23 15–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 18 0% 16–21 16–21 15–22 15–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 19 0% 17–20 17–21 16–21 15–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 18 0% 16–20 15–21 15–21 14–22

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0.1% 100% Majority
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 1.2% 99.6%  
35 4% 98%  
36 9% 94%  
37 16% 85%  
38 28% 70% Median
39 24% 41%  
40 11% 17%  
41 4% 6%  
42 1.2% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 1.1% 99.7% Majority
33 7% 98.6%  
34 20% 92% Last Result, Median
35 24% 72%  
36 17% 48%  
37 20% 31%  
38 7% 11%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.6% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100% Last Result
31 2% 99.8%  
32 4% 98% Majority
33 12% 94%  
34 31% 82% Median
35 18% 51%  
36 13% 33%  
37 15% 19%  
38 3% 4%  
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.4%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.2%  
32 8% 97% Majority
33 14% 89%  
34 31% 75% Median
35 25% 44%  
36 12% 19%  
37 5% 7%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.2%  
31 7% 97%  
32 10% 89% Majority
33 19% 79%  
34 38% 60% Median
35 15% 23%  
36 6% 8%  
37 1.4% 2%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.3% 100%  
28 1.5% 99.7%  
29 4% 98%  
30 10% 95%  
31 17% 85%  
32 24% 68% Median, Majority
33 18% 45%  
34 15% 26%  
35 9% 12%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.4%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.0%  
28 9% 97%  
29 10% 89%  
30 33% 78% Median
31 25% 46%  
32 15% 21% Majority
33 4% 6%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 100%  
25 2% 99.8%  
26 4% 98%  
27 11% 94%  
28 22% 83%  
29 34% 62% Median
30 23% 28%  
31 3% 5%  
32 1.3% 2% Majority
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.5%  
25 5% 98%  
26 11% 92%  
27 17% 81%  
28 29% 65% Median
29 19% 36%  
30 13% 17%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.5% 0.6% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.7%  
24 5% 98.6%  
25 7% 93%  
26 13% 86%  
27 27% 73% Median
28 15% 47%  
29 18% 32%  
30 12% 14%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.4% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.1% 99.8%  
23 3% 98.7%  
24 7% 96%  
25 19% 89%  
26 37% 70% Median
27 24% 33%  
28 7% 9%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.4% 100%  
22 2% 99.6%  
23 5% 98%  
24 14% 93%  
25 27% 79% Median
26 28% 52%  
27 19% 24%  
28 4% 5%  
29 0.5% 0.9%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.8%  
20 2% 99.4%  
21 9% 97%  
22 15% 88%  
23 24% 73% Median
24 31% 49%  
25 14% 18%  
26 3% 4%  
27 1.1% 1.4%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.4% 100%  
19 1.4% 99.6%  
20 7% 98%  
21 10% 91%  
22 13% 81%  
23 25% 68% Median
24 21% 43%  
25 19% 22%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.3% 0.5%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 3% 98%  
20 12% 95%  
21 27% 83%  
22 21% 56% Median
23 22% 35%  
24 9% 13% Last Result
25 2% 4%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.5% 100%  
18 3% 99.5%  
19 5% 97%  
20 14% 91%  
21 27% 78% Median
22 35% 50%  
23 11% 16%  
24 2% 4%  
25 1.2% 2%  
26 0.6% 0.7%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.0% 100%  
16 7% 99.0%  
17 15% 92% Median
18 23% 77%  
19 15% 54%  
20 13% 38%  
21 15% 25%  
22 6% 10%  
23 3% 4%  
24 1.3% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 3% 99.8%  
16 13% 97%  
17 17% 83% Median
18 26% 66%  
19 14% 40%  
20 14% 25%  
21 9% 11%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.9% 1.1%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 1.1% 99.7%  
16 2% 98.6%  
17 11% 97%  
18 21% 85%  
19 28% 64% Median
20 28% 36%  
21 6% 8% Last Result
22 1.4% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.0% 100%  
15 6% 99.0%  
16 14% 93%  
17 24% 79% Median
18 29% 55%  
19 11% 26%  
20 9% 15%  
21 5% 6%  
22 0.6% 1.0%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations