Opinion Poll by Gallup, 15–28 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 25.4% 24.3–26.6% 24.0–26.9% 23.7–27.2% 23.2–27.7%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 23.1% 22.1–24.3% 21.8–24.6% 21.5–24.9% 21.0–25.4%
Píratar 14.5% 10.3% 9.6–11.1% 9.3–11.4% 9.2–11.6% 8.8–12.0%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 10.1% 9.4–10.9% 9.2–11.2% 9.0–11.4% 8.6–11.8%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 9.9% 9.2–10.7% 9.0–10.9% 8.8–11.1% 8.4–11.6%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 9.3% 8.6–10.1% 8.4–10.3% 8.2–10.5% 7.9–10.9%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 4.6% 4.1–5.2% 4.0–5.4% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8%
Viðreisn 10.5% 3.6% 3.1–4.1% 3.0–4.3% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.7%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 18 17–19 17–20 17–20 16–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 17 16–18 15–18 15–18 15–18
Píratar 10 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Flokkur fólksins 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Samfylkingin 3 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Björt framtíð 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Viðreisn 7 0 0 0 0 0
Miðflokkurinn 0 0 0 0 0 0

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.9% 100%  
17 13% 99.1%  
18 41% 86% Median
19 38% 45%  
20 6% 7%  
21 1.1% 1.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 9% 99.8%  
16 35% 91%  
17 40% 56% Median
18 16% 16%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 10% 100%  
7 72% 90% Median
8 18% 18%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 17% 99.9%  
7 65% 83% Median
8 18% 18%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 28% 99.7%  
7 63% 72% Median
8 9% 9% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 1.4% 100%  
6 60% 98.6% Median
7 38% 38%  
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Median
1 17% 34%  
2 0% 17%  
3 16% 17%  
4 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 31 35 100% 34–36 33–37 33–37 32–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð 27 32 83% 31–34 31–35 31–35 30–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn 34 32 83% 31–34 31–35 31–35 30–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin 23 32 64% 31–33 30–33 30–34 29–34
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 30 32 64% 31–33 30–33 30–34 29–34
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 21 32 53% 30–33 30–33 30–33 29–34
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 25 0% 24–27 24–27 24–27 23–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 25 0% 24–26 24–27 23–27 23–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 25 0% 24–26 23–26 23–27 22–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 23 0% 22–25 22–25 21–25 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 23 0% 22–24 21–24 21–24 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 17 0% 16–19 16–19 16–20 15–20
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn 32 17 0% 16–19 16–19 16–20 15–20
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 17 0% 16–18 15–18 15–18 15–18

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 1.3% 100% Majority
33 7% 98.7%  
34 25% 92%  
35 28% 67% Median
36 34% 39%  
37 5% 5%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 1.1% 100%  
31 16% 98.9% Median
32 37% 83% Majority
33 26% 46%  
34 14% 20%  
35 5% 6%  
36 1.4% 1.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 1.1% 100%  
31 16% 98.9% Median
32 37% 83% Majority
33 26% 46%  
34 14% 20% Last Result
35 5% 6%  
36 1.4% 1.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 1.2% 100%  
30 6% 98.8%  
31 29% 92% Median
32 39% 64% Majority
33 20% 25%  
34 4% 4%  
35 0.4% 0.4%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 1.2% 100%  
30 6% 98.8% Last Result
31 29% 92% Median
32 39% 64% Majority
33 20% 25%  
34 4% 4%  
35 0.4% 0.4%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 2% 99.9%  
30 11% 98%  
31 34% 87% Median
32 38% 53% Majority
33 13% 15%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 2% 100%  
24 13% 98%  
25 36% 85% Median
26 37% 49%  
27 10% 12%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 4% 99.9%  
24 17% 96%  
25 41% 79% Median
26 31% 37%  
27 5% 6%  
28 0.7% 0.7%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.6% 100%  
23 7% 99.4%  
24 29% 92% Median
25 45% 63%  
26 15% 18%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 4% 99.8%  
22 13% 96%  
23 35% 83%  
24 33% 48% Median
25 15% 15%  
26 1.0% 1.0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 5% 99.8%  
22 22% 95%  
23 42% 73% Median
24 29% 31% Last Result
25 2% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 2% 100%  
16 19% 98%  
17 40% 79% Median
18 25% 39%  
19 10% 13%  
20 4% 4%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 2% 100%  
16 19% 98%  
17 40% 79% Median
18 25% 39%  
19 10% 13%  
20 4% 4%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 9% 99.8%  
16 35% 91%  
17 40% 56% Median
18 16% 16%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations