Opinion Poll by MMR, 26–28 September 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
15.9% |
24.7% |
23.0–26.5% |
22.6–27.0% |
22.2–27.5% |
21.4–28.4% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
29.0% |
23.5% |
21.9–25.3% |
21.4–25.8% |
21.0–26.3% |
20.3–27.1% |
Samfylkingin |
5.7% |
10.4% |
9.3–11.7% |
8.9–12.1% |
8.7–12.4% |
8.1–13.1% |
Píratar |
14.5% |
10.0% |
8.9–11.3% |
8.6–11.7% |
8.3–12.0% |
7.8–12.7% |
Flokkur fólksins |
3.5% |
8.5% |
7.5–9.7% |
7.2–10.1% |
6.9–10.4% |
6.5–11.0% |
Miðflokkurinn |
0.0% |
7.3% |
6.4–8.5% |
6.1–8.8% |
5.9–9.1% |
5.4–9.7% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
11.5% |
6.4% |
5.5–7.5% |
5.3–7.8% |
5.1–8.1% |
4.7–8.7% |
Viðreisn |
10.5% |
4.9% |
4.2–5.9% |
3.9–6.2% |
3.8–6.5% |
3.4–7.0% |
Björt framtíð |
7.2% |
2.5% |
2.0–3.2% |
1.8–3.4% |
1.7–3.6% |
1.5–4.0% |
Dögun |
1.7% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.3–1.3% |
0.2–1.5% |
Alþýðufylkingin |
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.1–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
21% |
97% |
|
17 |
30% |
77% |
Median |
18 |
24% |
46% |
|
19 |
13% |
23% |
|
20 |
6% |
10% |
|
21 |
3% |
4% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
14 |
8% |
99.0% |
|
15 |
16% |
91% |
|
16 |
23% |
75% |
|
17 |
33% |
52% |
Median |
18 |
17% |
19% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
6 |
42% |
98.8% |
|
7 |
43% |
57% |
Median |
8 |
13% |
14% |
|
9 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
13% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
42% |
87% |
Median |
7 |
29% |
45% |
|
8 |
16% |
17% |
|
9 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
9% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
48% |
91% |
Median |
6 |
37% |
43% |
|
7 |
6% |
6% |
|
8 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
2% |
100% |
|
4 |
35% |
98% |
|
5 |
51% |
64% |
Median |
6 |
11% |
12% |
|
7 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
2 |
0.8% |
99.6% |
|
3 |
24% |
98.9% |
|
4 |
54% |
75% |
Median |
5 |
19% |
20% |
|
6 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
47% |
100% |
|
1 |
0.2% |
53% |
|
2 |
0% |
53% |
|
3 |
38% |
53% |
Median |
4 |
15% |
15% |
|
5 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Björt framtíð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Dögun
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dögun page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Alþýðufylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alþýðufylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
31 |
34 |
95% |
32–35 |
31–36 |
31–37 |
30–37 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð |
34 |
32 |
69% |
31–34 |
30–35 |
30–36 |
29–36 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
21 |
33 |
79% |
31–35 |
31–36 |
30–36 |
29–37 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn |
30 |
32 |
69% |
31–34 |
30–35 |
30–36 |
29–36 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð |
27 |
31 |
28% |
29–33 |
28–34 |
28–34 |
27–35 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar |
23 |
31 |
28% |
29–33 |
28–34 |
28–34 |
27–35 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
13 |
29 |
7% |
27–31 |
27–32 |
26–32 |
26–33 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
21 |
28 |
3% |
26–30 |
26–31 |
25–32 |
25–33 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
18 |
26 |
0% |
24–29 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
29 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
22–27 |
22–28 |
21–28 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
20 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
13 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
10 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–25 |
20–26 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
24 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
20–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
18 |
21 |
0% |
20–24 |
19–24 |
19–25 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
21 |
21 |
0% |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–23 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
29 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
18–22 |
17–23 |
17–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð |
32 |
18 |
0% |
16–21 |
15–21 |
14–21 |
14–22 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
28 |
18 |
0% |
16–21 |
15–21 |
14–21 |
14–22 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð |
25 |
17 |
0% |
15–18 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
4% |
98% |
Last Result |
32 |
10% |
95% |
Majority |
33 |
17% |
85% |
|
34 |
31% |
68% |
Median |
35 |
27% |
37% |
|
36 |
7% |
10% |
|
37 |
3% |
3% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
29 |
1.3% |
99.7% |
|
30 |
6% |
98% |
|
31 |
23% |
93% |
|
32 |
20% |
69% |
Majority |
33 |
21% |
49% |
Median |
34 |
18% |
28% |
Last Result |
35 |
5% |
10% |
|
36 |
4% |
5% |
|
37 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
3% |
98.9% |
|
31 |
17% |
96% |
|
32 |
17% |
79% |
Majority |
33 |
24% |
62% |
Median |
34 |
22% |
38% |
|
35 |
10% |
16% |
|
36 |
5% |
6% |
|
37 |
2% |
2% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
29 |
1.3% |
99.7% |
|
30 |
6% |
98% |
Last Result |
31 |
23% |
93% |
|
32 |
20% |
69% |
Majority |
33 |
21% |
49% |
Median |
34 |
18% |
28% |
|
35 |
5% |
10% |
|
36 |
4% |
5% |
|
37 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.5% |
100% |
Last Result |
28 |
7% |
99.4% |
|
29 |
15% |
93% |
|
30 |
20% |
78% |
Median |
31 |
30% |
58% |
|
32 |
12% |
28% |
Majority |
33 |
11% |
16% |
|
34 |
4% |
5% |
|
35 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
28 |
7% |
99.4% |
|
29 |
15% |
93% |
|
30 |
20% |
78% |
Median |
31 |
30% |
58% |
|
32 |
12% |
28% |
Majority |
33 |
11% |
16% |
|
34 |
4% |
5% |
|
35 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
26 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
27 |
11% |
97% |
|
28 |
24% |
86% |
|
29 |
28% |
62% |
Median |
30 |
17% |
34% |
|
31 |
10% |
17% |
|
32 |
5% |
7% |
Majority |
33 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
25 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
26 |
10% |
96% |
|
27 |
18% |
86% |
|
28 |
28% |
68% |
Median |
29 |
21% |
40% |
|
30 |
11% |
19% |
|
31 |
5% |
8% |
|
32 |
2% |
3% |
Majority |
33 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
10% |
98% |
|
25 |
24% |
88% |
|
26 |
20% |
64% |
Median |
27 |
21% |
43% |
|
28 |
12% |
22% |
|
29 |
9% |
10% |
|
30 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
22 |
5% |
99.4% |
|
23 |
7% |
94% |
|
24 |
25% |
87% |
|
25 |
21% |
63% |
|
26 |
22% |
41% |
Median |
27 |
15% |
19% |
|
28 |
3% |
4% |
|
29 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
15% |
98% |
|
23 |
18% |
83% |
Median |
24 |
29% |
65% |
|
25 |
21% |
36% |
|
26 |
8% |
15% |
|
27 |
7% |
8% |
|
28 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
8% |
98.9% |
|
23 |
23% |
91% |
|
24 |
28% |
68% |
Median |
25 |
21% |
40% |
|
26 |
10% |
19% |
|
27 |
7% |
9% |
|
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
7% |
99.0% |
|
21 |
23% |
92% |
|
22 |
29% |
69% |
Median |
23 |
21% |
41% |
|
24 |
11% |
19% |
|
25 |
5% |
8% |
|
26 |
3% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
10% |
96% |
|
22 |
19% |
86% |
|
23 |
29% |
67% |
|
24 |
21% |
38% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
15% |
18% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.6% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
9% |
99.4% |
|
20 |
15% |
91% |
|
21 |
30% |
76% |
Median |
22 |
20% |
45% |
|
23 |
14% |
25% |
|
24 |
8% |
11% |
|
25 |
3% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
18 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
19 |
11% |
96% |
|
20 |
16% |
85% |
|
21 |
26% |
69% |
Last Result |
22 |
26% |
43% |
Median |
23 |
16% |
18% |
|
24 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
5% |
97% |
|
19 |
19% |
91% |
|
20 |
29% |
73% |
|
21 |
22% |
44% |
Median |
22 |
18% |
22% |
|
23 |
3% |
4% |
|
24 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
14 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
15 |
6% |
97% |
|
16 |
11% |
91% |
|
17 |
22% |
80% |
|
18 |
14% |
58% |
|
19 |
13% |
44% |
|
20 |
19% |
31% |
Median |
21 |
10% |
11% |
|
22 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result, Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
14 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
15 |
6% |
97% |
|
16 |
11% |
91% |
|
17 |
22% |
80% |
|
18 |
14% |
58% |
|
19 |
13% |
44% |
|
20 |
19% |
30% |
Median |
21 |
10% |
11% |
|
22 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
14 |
8% |
99.0% |
|
15 |
16% |
91% |
|
16 |
23% |
75% |
|
17 |
33% |
52% |
Median |
18 |
17% |
19% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 26–28 September 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1011
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 2.62%