Opinion Poll by MMR, 26–28 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 24.7% 23.0–26.5% 22.6–27.0% 22.2–27.5% 21.4–28.4%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 23.5% 21.9–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.3% 20.3–27.1%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 10.4% 9.3–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.7–12.4% 8.1–13.1%
Píratar 14.5% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.5–11.0%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 7.3% 6.4–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.9–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.1–8.1% 4.7–8.7%
Viðreisn 10.5% 4.9% 4.2–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–4.0%
Dögun 1.7% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.5%
Alþýðufylkingin 0.3% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 17 16–19 16–20 15–21 15–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 17 15–18 14–18 14–18 13–19
Samfylkingin 3 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Píratar 10 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Flokkur fólksins 0 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Miðflokkurinn 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–6
Viðreisn 7 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0 0
Dögun 0 0 0 0 0 0
Alþýðufylkingin 0 0 0 0 0 0

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 100%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 21% 97%  
17 30% 77% Median
18 24% 46%  
19 13% 23%  
20 6% 10%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.0% 100%  
14 8% 99.0%  
15 16% 91%  
16 23% 75%  
17 33% 52% Median
18 17% 19%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 1.2% 100%  
6 42% 98.8%  
7 43% 57% Median
8 13% 14%  
9 1.4% 1.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 13% 99.9%  
6 42% 87% Median
7 29% 45%  
8 16% 17%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 9% 99.9%  
5 48% 91% Median
6 37% 43%  
7 6% 6%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 35% 98%  
5 51% 64% Median
6 11% 12%  
7 1.1% 1.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.3% 99.9%  
2 0.8% 99.6%  
3 24% 98.9%  
4 54% 75% Median
5 19% 20%  
6 1.1% 1.2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100%  
1 0.2% 53%  
2 0% 53%  
3 38% 53% Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Dögun

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dögun page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Alþýðufylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alþýðufylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 31 34 95% 32–35 31–36 31–37 30–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 32 69% 31–34 30–35 30–36 29–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 33 79% 31–35 31–36 30–36 29–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 30 32 69% 31–34 30–35 30–36 29–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð 27 31 28% 29–33 28–34 28–34 27–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 23 31 28% 29–33 28–34 28–34 27–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 13 29 7% 27–31 27–32 26–32 26–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 28 3% 26–30 26–31 25–32 25–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 26 0% 24–29 24–29 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 25 0% 23–27 22–27 22–28 21–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 24 0% 22–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 24 0% 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 22 0% 21–24 20–25 20–26 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 23 0% 21–25 21–25 20–25 20–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 21 0% 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 21 0% 19–23 19–23 18–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 20 0% 19–22 18–22 17–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 18 0% 16–21 15–21 14–21 14–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 18 0% 16–21 15–21 14–21 14–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 17 0% 15–18 14–18 14–18 13–19

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 2% 99.8%  
31 4% 98% Last Result
32 10% 95% Majority
33 17% 85%  
34 31% 68% Median
35 27% 37%  
36 7% 10%  
37 3% 3%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 1.3% 99.7%  
30 6% 98%  
31 23% 93%  
32 20% 69% Majority
33 21% 49% Median
34 18% 28% Last Result
35 5% 10%  
36 4% 5%  
37 0.4% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 1.1% 100%  
30 3% 98.9%  
31 17% 96%  
32 17% 79% Majority
33 24% 62% Median
34 22% 38%  
35 10% 16%  
36 5% 6%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 1.3% 99.7%  
30 6% 98% Last Result
31 23% 93%  
32 20% 69% Majority
33 21% 49% Median
34 18% 28%  
35 5% 10%  
36 4% 5%  
37 0.4% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.5% 100% Last Result
28 7% 99.4%  
29 15% 93%  
30 20% 78% Median
31 30% 58%  
32 12% 28% Majority
33 11% 16%  
34 4% 5%  
35 1.0% 1.0%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.5% 100%  
28 7% 99.4%  
29 15% 93%  
30 20% 78% Median
31 30% 58%  
32 12% 28% Majority
33 11% 16%  
34 4% 5%  
35 1.0% 1.0%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.4% 100%  
26 3% 99.6%  
27 11% 97%  
28 24% 86%  
29 28% 62% Median
30 17% 34%  
31 10% 17%  
32 5% 7% Majority
33 1.4% 1.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.3% 100%  
25 3% 99.7%  
26 10% 96%  
27 18% 86%  
28 28% 68% Median
29 21% 40%  
30 11% 19%  
31 5% 8%  
32 2% 3% Majority
33 0.6% 0.6%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.8%  
24 10% 98%  
25 24% 88%  
26 20% 64% Median
27 21% 43%  
28 12% 22%  
29 9% 10%  
30 1.3% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.6% 100%  
22 5% 99.4%  
23 7% 94%  
24 25% 87%  
25 21% 63%  
26 22% 41% Median
27 15% 19%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100% Last Result
21 2% 99.9%  
22 15% 98%  
23 18% 83% Median
24 29% 65%  
25 21% 36%  
26 8% 15%  
27 7% 8%  
28 0.9% 1.0%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.1% 99.9%  
22 8% 98.9%  
23 23% 91%  
24 28% 68% Median
25 21% 40%  
26 10% 19%  
27 7% 9%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.9%  
20 7% 99.0%  
21 23% 92%  
22 29% 69% Median
23 21% 41%  
24 11% 19%  
25 5% 8%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 3% 99.8%  
21 10% 96%  
22 19% 86%  
23 29% 67%  
24 21% 38% Last Result, Median
25 15% 18%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.6% 100% Last Result
19 9% 99.4%  
20 15% 91%  
21 30% 76% Median
22 20% 45%  
23 14% 25%  
24 8% 11%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 4% 99.5%  
19 11% 96%  
20 16% 85%  
21 26% 69% Last Result
22 26% 43% Median
23 16% 18%  
24 1.4% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 3% 99.9%  
18 5% 97%  
19 19% 91%  
20 29% 73%  
21 22% 44% Median
22 18% 22%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.8% 0.9%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 3% 99.8%  
15 6% 97%  
16 11% 91%  
17 22% 80%  
18 14% 58%  
19 13% 44%  
20 19% 31% Median
21 10% 11%  
22 1.2% 1.4%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 3% 99.8%  
15 6% 97%  
16 11% 91%  
17 22% 80%  
18 14% 58%  
19 13% 44%  
20 19% 30% Median
21 10% 11%  
22 1.2% 1.4%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.0% 100%  
14 8% 99.0%  
15 16% 91%  
16 23% 75%  
17 33% 52% Median
18 17% 19%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations