Opinion Poll by Fréttablaðið, 2–3 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 28.6% 26.6–30.7% 26.1–31.3% 25.6–31.9% 24.7–32.9%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 22.2% 20.5–24.2% 19.9–24.8% 19.5–25.3% 18.7–26.2%
Píratar 14.5% 11.4% 10.0–12.9% 9.7–13.4% 9.4–13.8% 8.7–14.5%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 10.6% 9.3–12.1% 9.0–12.6% 8.7–13.0% 8.1–13.7%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 8.9% 7.7–10.3% 7.4–10.7% 7.1–11.1% 6.6–11.8%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 5.8% 4.8–7.0% 4.6–7.3% 4.3–7.6% 3.9–8.2%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 5.5% 4.6–6.7% 4.3–7.0% 4.1–7.3% 3.7–7.9%
Viðreisn 10.5% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.8–4.9%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 2.6% 2.0–3.5% 1.9–3.8% 1.7–4.0% 1.5–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 21 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 15 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19
Píratar 10 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Samfylkingin 3 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
Miðflokkurinn 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Flokkur fólksins 0 4 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 3 1–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Viðreisn 7 0 0 0 0 0
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0 0

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.9%  
18 4% 99.1%  
19 11% 95%  
20 32% 83%  
21 25% 51% Median
22 20% 26%  
23 5% 6%  
24 0.9% 1.1%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 15% 97%  
15 39% 82% Median
16 26% 43%  
17 13% 17%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.6%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 9% 99.7%  
7 35% 91%  
8 39% 56% Median
9 14% 16%  
10 2% 2% Last Result
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0.8% 100%  
6 24% 99.2%  
7 45% 75% Median
8 24% 30%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 30% 98%  
6 47% 67% Median
7 18% 21%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 0% 83%  
2 0% 83%  
3 25% 83%  
4 50% 59% Median
5 8% 8%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 5% 93%  
2 5% 88%  
3 39% 83% Median
4 40% 44%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 37 99.9% 35–39 34–39 34–40 33–41
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð 27 35 99.6% 34–37 33–38 33–39 32–40
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 35 99.6% 34–37 33–38 33–39 32–40
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin 23 35 99.6% 34–37 33–38 33–39 32–40
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 30 35 99.6% 34–37 33–38 33–39 32–40
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 31 36 99.9% 34–38 34–39 33–39 32–40
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 13 33 93% 32–36 31–36 31–37 30–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 31 34% 29–33 28–33 28–34 26–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 30 10% 28–32 27–32 27–33 26–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 28 2% 27–30 26–30 26–31 25–32
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 28 0.8% 26–30 25–30 25–31 24–32
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 26 0.1% 25–28 24–29 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 24 0% 23–26 22–27 22–28 21–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 24 0% 22–26 21–26 20–27 19–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 22 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 21 0% 20–23 19–24 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 19 0% 17–20 16–21 15–21 15–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 15 0% 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 15 0% 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 15 0% 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9% Majority
33 1.4% 99.7%  
34 6% 98%  
35 12% 93%  
36 26% 80%  
37 25% 54% Median
38 17% 30%  
39 8% 13%  
40 4% 5%  
41 0.9% 1.0%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 100%  
32 2% 99.6% Majority
33 5% 98%  
34 20% 93%  
35 29% 72%  
36 22% 43% Median
37 12% 20%  
38 5% 8%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.7% 0.9%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 1.5% 99.6% Majority
33 5% 98%  
34 20% 93% Last Result
35 29% 72%  
36 22% 43% Median
37 12% 21%  
38 5% 8%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.7% 0.9%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 100%  
32 2% 99.6% Majority
33 5% 98%  
34 20% 93%  
35 29% 72%  
36 22% 43% Median
37 12% 20%  
38 5% 8%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.7% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.3% 100%  
32 2% 99.6% Majority
33 5% 98%  
34 20% 93%  
35 29% 72%  
36 22% 43% Median
37 12% 21%  
38 5% 8%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.7% 0.9%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100% Last Result
32 0.8% 99.9% Majority
33 3% 99.1%  
34 14% 96%  
35 21% 82%  
36 21% 61% Median
37 23% 40%  
38 11% 17%  
39 4% 6%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.4% 99.8%  
31 5% 98%  
32 17% 93% Majority
33 27% 77%  
34 24% 50% Median
35 13% 26%  
36 9% 13%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.8% 1.1%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.4%  
28 4% 98%  
29 12% 94%  
30 24% 82%  
31 24% 58% Median
32 19% 34% Majority
33 10% 15%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.8% 0.9%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.5%  
27 6% 98%  
28 14% 92%  
29 25% 78%  
30 24% 53% Median
31 18% 29%  
32 7% 10% Majority
33 3% 3%  
34 0.4% 0.4%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 1.1% 99.7%  
26 6% 98.5%  
27 15% 92%  
28 39% 77%  
29 23% 38% Median
30 10% 15%  
31 3% 5%  
32 1.3% 2% Majority
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.1% 99.9%  
25 4% 98.7%  
26 13% 95%  
27 29% 82%  
28 24% 53% Median
29 19% 29%  
30 8% 11%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.6% 0.8% Majority
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 2% 99.8%  
24 5% 98%  
25 15% 93%  
26 30% 78%  
27 25% 48% Median
28 15% 23%  
29 6% 8%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 2% 99.6%  
22 6% 98%  
23 18% 92%  
24 27% 74% Median
25 24% 47%  
26 14% 23%  
27 6% 9%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100% Last Result
19 0.7% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.2%  
21 5% 97%  
22 12% 92%  
23 24% 80%  
24 24% 56% Median
25 19% 32%  
26 10% 13%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.5% 100%  
20 4% 99.5%  
21 16% 95%  
22 32% 79% Median
23 27% 48%  
24 12% 21% Last Result
25 7% 9%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.9%  
19 5% 99.3%  
20 24% 95%  
21 30% 70% Last Result, Median
22 22% 41%  
23 13% 19%  
24 4% 6%  
25 1.2% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 3% 99.6%  
16 5% 97%  
17 12% 92%  
18 26% 79% Median
19 28% 53%  
20 17% 25%  
21 6% 8%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 15% 97%  
15 39% 82% Median
16 26% 43%  
17 13% 17%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.5% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 15% 97%  
15 39% 82% Median
16 26% 43%  
17 14% 17%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.6% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 15% 97%  
15 39% 82% Median
16 26% 43%  
17 13% 17%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.6% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations