Opinion Poll by Félagsvísindastofnun for Morgunblaðið, 2–6 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 28.1% 26.3–30.0% 25.8–30.6% 25.3–31.1% 24.5–32.0%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 20.7% 19.1–22.5% 18.6–22.9% 18.2–23.4% 17.5–24.2%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 10.8% 9.6–12.2% 9.3–12.6% 9.0–13.0% 8.4–13.7%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 9.4% 8.3–10.8% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.5% 7.2–12.1%
Píratar 14.5% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.8% 7.4–11.1% 7.0–11.8%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.7% 7.3–11.0% 6.9–11.7%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 5.5% 4.7–6.6% 4.4–6.9% 4.2–7.2% 3.9–7.7%
Viðreisn 10.5% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.1–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 1.9–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Íslenska þjóðfylkingin 0.2% 0.4% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.3%
Alþýðufylkingin 0.3% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.2%
Dögun 1.7% 0.0% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 20 19–21 18–22 18–22 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 14 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–17
Samfylkingin 3 8 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Miðflokkurinn 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Píratar 10 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Flokkur fólksins 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 4 1–4 1–4 0–5 0–5
Viðreisn 7 0 0 0 0 0
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0 0
Íslenska þjóðfylkingin 0 0 0 0 0 0
Alþýðufylkingin 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dögun 0 0 0 0 0 0

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 4% 98%  
19 14% 94%  
20 51% 80% Median
21 23% 29%  
22 5% 6%  
23 1.0% 1.0%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 39% 97%  
14 39% 59% Median
15 14% 20%  
16 4% 6%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 9% 99.8%  
7 31% 91%  
8 58% 60% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.4% 100%  
5 15% 99.6%  
6 59% 85% Median
7 21% 26%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.7% 100%  
5 16% 99.3%  
6 56% 84% Median
7 25% 27%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 24% 99.5%  
6 62% 75% Median
7 12% 14%  
8 1.3% 1.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 6% 96%  
2 3% 90%  
3 29% 87%  
4 53% 58% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Íslenska þjóðfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Íslenska þjóðfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Alþýðufylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alþýðufylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Dögun

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dögun page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 37 100% 35–38 35–39 34–39 33–40
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 13 34 98% 33–35 32–35 32–36 30–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 31 34 98% 33–36 32–36 32–36 31–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð 27 34 94% 32–35 31–35 31–36 30–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 34 94% 32–35 31–35 31–36 30–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 23 34 94% 32–35 31–35 31–36 30–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 30 34 94% 32–35 31–35 31–36 30–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 31 49% 29–32 28–33 27–33 26–34
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 30 3% 28–31 27–31 27–32 25–32
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 28 0% 26–29 25–29 25–29 24–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 26 0% 25–28 25–28 24–28 23–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–28 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 23 0% 22–25 22–26 21–27 19–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 24 0% 21–25 21–25 20–26 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 21 0% 20–23 20–23 19–24 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 20 0% 19–22 19–23 18–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 17 0% 16–18 16–19 15–19 13–20
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 14 0% 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–17
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 14 0% 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–17
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 14 0% 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–17

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 100% Majority
33 2% 99.8%  
34 1.4% 98%  
35 7% 97%  
36 13% 90%  
37 32% 77%  
38 39% 45% Median
39 5% 5%  
40 0.5% 0.5%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 1.1% 100%  
31 1.0% 98.9%  
32 6% 98% Majority
33 23% 92%  
34 52% 68% Median
35 13% 17%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.8% 0.9%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 2% 99.9% Last Result
32 4% 98% Majority
33 37% 93%  
34 24% 56% Median
35 21% 32%  
36 10% 12%  
37 1.0% 2%  
38 0.5% 0.6%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.0% 99.8%  
31 4% 98.8%  
32 11% 94% Majority
33 12% 83%  
34 47% 71% Median
35 20% 24%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.3% 0.8%  
38 0.5% 0.5%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.0% 99.8%  
31 4% 98.8%  
32 11% 94% Majority
33 12% 83%  
34 47% 71% Last Result, Median
35 20% 24%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.4% 0.8%  
38 0.5% 0.5%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.0% 99.8%  
31 4% 98.8%  
32 11% 94% Majority
33 12% 83%  
34 47% 71% Median
35 20% 24%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.3% 0.8%  
38 0.5% 0.5%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.0% 99.8% Last Result
31 4% 98.8%  
32 11% 94% Majority
33 12% 83%  
34 47% 71% Median
35 20% 24%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.3% 0.8%  
38 0.5% 0.5%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.2%  
28 4% 97%  
29 10% 93%  
30 13% 83%  
31 21% 70%  
32 43% 49% Median, Majority
33 5% 6%  
34 0.7% 0.7%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.6% 100%  
26 1.3% 99.3%  
27 3% 98%  
28 10% 95%  
29 25% 85%  
30 43% 60% Median
31 14% 17%  
32 3% 3% Majority
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.9%  
25 4% 98%  
26 7% 94%  
27 25% 87%  
28 42% 61% Median
29 17% 20%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.7% 0.7%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.8% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.1%  
25 12% 97%  
26 56% 85% Median
27 18% 29%  
28 9% 11%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 2% 99.8%  
24 6% 98%  
25 10% 92%  
26 46% 82% Median
27 24% 36%  
28 10% 12%  
29 1.2% 2%  
30 0.5% 0.5%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.5% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.5%  
21 3% 99.1%  
22 13% 97%  
23 49% 84%  
24 24% 35% Median
25 5% 11%  
26 3% 6%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.6% 0.6%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100% Last Result
19 1.1% 99.9%  
20 2% 98.8%  
21 9% 97%  
22 6% 88%  
23 20% 81%  
24 48% 62% Median
25 10% 13%  
26 4% 4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 3% 99.7%  
20 9% 97%  
21 53% 88%  
22 22% 35% Median
23 10% 13%  
24 3% 4% Last Result
25 0.8% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 3% 99.7%  
19 45% 97%  
20 24% 52% Median
21 13% 28% Last Result
22 9% 15%  
23 4% 6%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.9%  
14 0.5% 99.4%  
15 3% 98.9%  
16 12% 96%  
17 54% 83%  
18 20% 29% Median
19 7% 9%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 39% 97%  
14 39% 59% Median
15 14% 20%  
16 4% 6%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 39% 97%  
14 39% 59% Median
15 14% 20%  
16 4% 6%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 39% 97%  
14 39% 59% Median
15 14% 20%  
16 4% 6%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations