Opinion Poll by Fréttablaðið, 10 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 29.9% 27.9–32.0% 27.3–32.6% 26.8–33.1% 25.9–34.2%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 22.2% 20.4–24.1% 19.9–24.7% 19.4–25.2% 18.6–26.1%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 9.2% 8.0–10.7% 7.7–11.1% 7.4–11.4% 6.9–12.1%
Píratar 14.5% 8.5% 7.3–9.9% 7.0–10.3% 6.7–10.6% 6.2–11.3%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 8.3% 7.2–9.7% 6.9–10.1% 6.6–10.5% 6.1–11.2%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 7.1% 6.1–8.4% 5.8–8.8% 5.5–9.1% 5.1–9.8%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 6.1% 5.1–7.3% 4.9–7.7% 4.6–8.0% 4.2–8.6%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.9% 2.5–5.1% 2.2–5.7%
Viðreisn 10.5% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–4.8% 2.0–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 22 20–23 20–24 20–25 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 15 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19
Miðflokkurinn 0 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Píratar 10 6 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–8
Samfylkingin 3 6 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 4–5 4–6 3–6 3–6
Flokkur fólksins 0 4 3–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Björt framtíð 4 0 0–1 0–1 0–3 0–3
Viðreisn 7 0 0 0 0 0–3

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.3%  
20 11% 98%  
21 24% 87%  
22 43% 63% Median
23 14% 20%  
24 3% 6%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 16% 96%  
15 40% 80% Median
16 27% 41%  
17 10% 14%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.6% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.2% 100%  
5 22% 98.8%  
6 48% 77% Median
7 23% 29%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 6% 99.9%  
5 42% 94%  
6 43% 52% Median
7 9% 9%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100% Last Result
4 9% 99.7%  
5 24% 90%  
6 57% 67% Median
7 9% 9%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 3% 99.7%  
4 41% 96%  
5 47% 55% Median
6 8% 8%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 22% 94%  
4 53% 71% Median
5 17% 18%  
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Median
1 9% 12%  
2 0% 3%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0.1% 2%  
2 0% 1.4%  
3 1.3% 1.4%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 38 100% 37–40 36–40 36–41 35–42
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 31 37 100% 35–39 35–40 34–40 34–41
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 13 33 96% 32–35 32–36 31–36 30–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð 27 33 88% 31–35 31–35 30–36 30–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn 34 33 89% 31–35 31–36 30–36 30–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin 23 33 86% 31–35 31–35 30–36 29–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 30 33 87% 31–35 31–35 30–36 29–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 32 80% 31–34 31–35 30–35 29–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 32 67% 30–34 30–34 29–35 28–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 28 0.7% 27–29 26–30 26–31 25–32
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 27 0.3% 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 28 0.1% 26–29 25–29 25–30 24–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 26 0% 24–28 24–29 24–29 23–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 26 0.1% 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 21 0% 20–23 19–24 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 21 0% 19–23 19–23 18–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 20 0% 19–22 18–22 18–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 15 0% 14–17 14–18 13–18 13–19
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn 32 15 0% 14–17 14–18 13–18 13–19
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 15 0% 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100% Majority
33 0% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.6%  
36 7% 98%  
37 20% 91%  
38 34% 71%  
39 24% 37% Median
40 9% 13%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.8% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100% Last Result
32 0.1% 100% Majority
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 3% 99.5%  
35 10% 97%  
36 19% 87%  
37 30% 68% Median
38 23% 38%  
39 10% 15%  
40 3% 5%  
41 1.4% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.9%  
31 3% 99.2%  
32 14% 96% Majority
33 32% 82%  
34 30% 50% Median
35 14% 20%  
36 4% 5%  
37 1.0% 1.4%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 0.4% 100%  
30 2% 99.6%  
31 9% 97%  
32 18% 88% Majority
33 29% 70%  
34 26% 41% Median
35 10% 15%  
36 4% 5%  
37 1.1% 1.4%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.4% 100%  
30 2% 99.6%  
31 9% 97%  
32 18% 89% Majority
33 29% 71%  
34 26% 42% Last Result, Median
35 10% 16%  
36 4% 6%  
37 1.3% 2%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 3% 99.4%  
31 10% 97%  
32 21% 86% Majority
33 30% 66%  
34 25% 36% Median
35 8% 11%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 3% 99.5% Last Result
31 10% 97%  
32 20% 87% Majority
33 29% 67%  
34 25% 37% Median
35 8% 12%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.7% 0.9%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.8% 99.8%  
30 4% 99.0%  
31 15% 95%  
32 36% 80% Majority
33 25% 44% Median
34 12% 19%  
35 5% 7%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.5% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.3%  
30 9% 97%  
31 21% 88%  
32 30% 67% Majority
33 26% 37% Median
34 9% 11%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.6% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 1.4% 99.6%  
26 8% 98%  
27 31% 90%  
28 34% 60% Median
29 16% 25%  
30 6% 9%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.6% 0.7% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.3% 99.8%  
25 6% 98%  
26 18% 92%  
27 28% 74%  
28 31% 46% Median
29 10% 15%  
30 3% 5%  
31 1.3% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.3% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.8%  
25 5% 98.8%  
26 15% 94%  
27 28% 79%  
28 34% 50% Median
29 13% 16%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.7% 0.8%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 2% 99.7%  
24 8% 98%  
25 25% 89%  
26 31% 64% Median
27 19% 34%  
28 8% 14%  
29 4% 6% Last Result
30 1.4% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.7%  
24 5% 98%  
25 17% 94%  
26 32% 77%  
27 29% 45% Median
28 11% 16%  
29 3% 5%  
30 1.2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.5% 100%  
19 5% 99.5%  
20 17% 94%  
21 32% 77% Last Result, Median
22 25% 45%  
23 13% 21%  
24 6% 8%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 9% 97%  
20 21% 89%  
21 33% 68% Median
22 24% 35%  
23 8% 11%  
24 2% 3% Last Result
25 0.7% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.5% 99.8%  
18 8% 98%  
19 26% 90%  
20 35% 64% Median
21 18% 29%  
22 8% 11%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.6% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 3% 99.9%  
14 13% 97%  
15 37% 84% Median
16 29% 47%  
17 13% 19%  
18 4% 6%  
19 1.2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 12% 97%  
15 37% 85% Median
16 29% 48%  
17 13% 20%  
18 5% 7%  
19 1.4% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 15% 97%  
15 39% 81% Median
16 27% 42%  
17 11% 15%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.7% 0.9%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations