Opinion Poll by MMR, 6–11 October 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
15.9% |
21.8% |
20.2–23.6% |
19.7–24.1% |
19.3–24.5% |
18.6–25.4% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
29.0% |
21.1% |
19.5–22.8% |
19.0–23.3% |
18.6–23.8% |
17.9–24.6% |
Samfylkingin |
5.7% |
13.0% |
11.7–14.5% |
11.4–14.9% |
11.1–15.3% |
10.5–16.0% |
Miðflokkurinn |
0.0% |
10.7% |
9.5–12.0% |
9.1–12.4% |
8.9–12.8% |
8.3–13.4% |
Píratar |
14.5% |
10.4% |
9.3–11.8% |
8.9–12.2% |
8.7–12.5% |
8.1–13.2% |
Flokkur fólksins |
3.5% |
7.3% |
6.4–8.5% |
6.1–8.9% |
5.9–9.2% |
5.4–9.8% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
11.5% |
5.9% |
5.0–7.0% |
4.8–7.3% |
4.6–7.6% |
4.2–8.1% |
Björt framtíð |
7.2% |
4.2% |
3.5–5.2% |
3.3–5.5% |
3.1–5.7% |
2.8–6.2% |
Viðreisn |
10.5% |
3.6% |
3.0–4.5% |
2.8–4.8% |
2.6–5.0% |
2.3–5.5% |
Alþýðufylkingin |
0.3% |
0.9% |
0.6–1.5% |
0.5–1.6% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
10% |
97% |
|
15 |
23% |
87% |
|
16 |
51% |
64% |
Median |
17 |
10% |
13% |
|
18 |
3% |
3% |
|
19 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
13 |
8% |
99.3% |
|
14 |
27% |
91% |
|
15 |
39% |
64% |
Median |
16 |
21% |
25% |
|
17 |
4% |
5% |
|
18 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
26% |
96% |
|
9 |
44% |
71% |
Median |
10 |
24% |
27% |
|
11 |
3% |
3% |
|
12 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
6 |
15% |
99.3% |
|
7 |
35% |
84% |
Median |
8 |
43% |
49% |
|
9 |
5% |
6% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
19% |
98.9% |
|
7 |
55% |
80% |
Median |
8 |
22% |
25% |
|
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
27% |
98.9% |
|
5 |
59% |
72% |
Median |
6 |
13% |
14% |
|
7 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
1 |
1.2% |
98.7% |
|
2 |
4% |
97% |
|
3 |
27% |
94% |
|
4 |
55% |
67% |
Median |
5 |
11% |
12% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Björt framtíð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
77% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
11% |
23% |
|
2 |
0% |
12% |
|
3 |
10% |
12% |
|
4 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
2 |
0% |
2% |
|
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Alþýðufylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alþýðufylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
21 |
36 |
99.8% |
34–37 |
33–38 |
33–38 |
32–39 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð |
27 |
32 |
70% |
31–34 |
30–34 |
30–35 |
29–36 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn |
34 |
32 |
71% |
31–34 |
30–35 |
30–35 |
29–36 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
13 |
32 |
71% |
30–34 |
30–34 |
29–34 |
28–35 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar |
23 |
32 |
59% |
30–33 |
30–34 |
29–34 |
28–35 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn |
30 |
32 |
60% |
30–33 |
30–34 |
29–34 |
28–35 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
31 |
31 |
22% |
29–32 |
28–32 |
28–33 |
27–34 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
21 |
28 |
0.5% |
27–30 |
26–30 |
26–31 |
25–32 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
18 |
27 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
29 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
24–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
13 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–26 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
24 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–26 |
21–26 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
21 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–24 |
20–25 |
19–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
10 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
20–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
20 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
18 |
19 |
0% |
18–21 |
17–21 |
17–22 |
16–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
29 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–20 |
16–21 |
15–22 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð |
25 |
15 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–18 |
13–18 |
13–19 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn |
32 |
15 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–18 |
13–18 |
13–19 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
28 |
15 |
0% |
14–16 |
13–17 |
13–17 |
12–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
32 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
Majority |
33 |
4% |
98.6% |
|
34 |
11% |
94% |
|
35 |
25% |
84% |
|
36 |
33% |
59% |
Median |
37 |
18% |
25% |
|
38 |
6% |
7% |
|
39 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
1.3% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
7% |
98.5% |
|
31 |
21% |
91% |
|
32 |
34% |
70% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
23% |
36% |
|
34 |
9% |
14% |
|
35 |
3% |
4% |
|
36 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
7% |
98.7% |
|
31 |
21% |
92% |
|
32 |
34% |
71% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
23% |
38% |
|
34 |
10% |
15% |
Last Result |
35 |
4% |
5% |
|
36 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
37 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
30 |
8% |
97% |
|
31 |
18% |
89% |
|
32 |
39% |
71% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
22% |
32% |
|
34 |
8% |
11% |
|
35 |
2% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
3% |
98.7% |
|
30 |
13% |
96% |
|
31 |
24% |
83% |
|
32 |
35% |
59% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
17% |
23% |
|
34 |
5% |
7% |
|
35 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
3% |
98.9% |
|
30 |
12% |
96% |
Last Result |
31 |
24% |
84% |
|
32 |
35% |
60% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
17% |
25% |
|
34 |
6% |
8% |
|
35 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
5% |
98% |
|
29 |
15% |
93% |
|
30 |
22% |
78% |
|
31 |
35% |
56% |
Last Result, Median |
32 |
18% |
22% |
Majority |
33 |
3% |
3% |
|
34 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
26 |
7% |
98% |
|
27 |
16% |
91% |
|
28 |
28% |
75% |
|
29 |
33% |
47% |
Median |
30 |
10% |
14% |
|
31 |
4% |
5% |
|
32 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
5% |
98.8% |
|
25 |
9% |
94% |
|
26 |
29% |
85% |
|
27 |
25% |
55% |
Median |
28 |
21% |
30% |
|
29 |
7% |
9% |
|
30 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
3% |
99.1% |
|
24 |
9% |
96% |
|
25 |
21% |
88% |
|
26 |
35% |
67% |
Median |
27 |
22% |
32% |
|
28 |
8% |
9% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
23 |
11% |
95% |
|
24 |
27% |
84% |
|
25 |
34% |
56% |
Median |
26 |
18% |
22% |
|
27 |
4% |
5% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
21 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
12% |
96% |
|
23 |
24% |
84% |
|
24 |
27% |
60% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
24% |
33% |
|
26 |
6% |
8% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
6% |
98.6% |
|
21 |
16% |
92% |
Last Result |
22 |
34% |
76% |
Median |
23 |
31% |
42% |
|
24 |
9% |
12% |
|
25 |
2% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
7% |
97% |
|
22 |
18% |
90% |
|
23 |
37% |
72% |
Median |
24 |
25% |
34% |
|
25 |
8% |
9% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.4% |
Last Result |
21 |
9% |
97% |
|
22 |
25% |
87% |
|
23 |
45% |
63% |
Median |
24 |
11% |
18% |
|
25 |
5% |
6% |
|
26 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
17 |
5% |
98% |
|
18 |
14% |
93% |
Last Result |
19 |
32% |
78% |
|
20 |
31% |
46% |
Median |
21 |
12% |
15% |
|
22 |
2% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
4% |
98.5% |
|
17 |
12% |
95% |
|
18 |
29% |
83% |
|
19 |
36% |
55% |
Median |
20 |
15% |
19% |
|
21 |
3% |
3% |
|
22 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
13 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
14 |
19% |
95% |
|
15 |
36% |
76% |
Median |
16 |
25% |
41% |
|
17 |
10% |
15% |
|
18 |
4% |
5% |
|
19 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
18% |
96% |
|
15 |
35% |
77% |
Median |
16 |
25% |
42% |
|
17 |
10% |
17% |
|
18 |
5% |
6% |
|
19 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result, Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
13 |
7% |
99.4% |
|
14 |
26% |
92% |
|
15 |
39% |
66% |
Median |
16 |
21% |
27% |
|
17 |
5% |
6% |
|
18 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–11 October 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 967
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 1.28%