Opinion Poll by MMR, 6–11 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 21.8% 20.2–23.6% 19.7–24.1% 19.3–24.5% 18.6–25.4%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 21.1% 19.5–22.8% 19.0–23.3% 18.6–23.8% 17.9–24.6%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.3% 10.5–16.0%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 10.7% 9.5–12.0% 9.1–12.4% 8.9–12.8% 8.3–13.4%
Píratar 14.5% 10.4% 9.3–11.8% 8.9–12.2% 8.7–12.5% 8.1–13.2%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 7.3% 6.4–8.5% 6.1–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.4–9.8%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.6% 4.2–8.1%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Viðreisn 10.5% 3.6% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.5%
Alþýðufylkingin 0.3% 0.9% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 16 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 15 14–16 13–16 13–17 12–18
Samfylkingin 3 9 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–12
Miðflokkurinn 0 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
Píratar 10 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Flokkur fólksins 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 4 3–5 2–5 1–5 0–5
Björt framtíð 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Viðreisn 7 0 0 0 0 0–3
Alþýðufylkingin 0 0 0 0 0 0

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 100%  
13 2% 99.8%  
14 10% 97%  
15 23% 87%  
16 51% 64% Median
17 10% 13%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.6%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 8% 99.3%  
14 27% 91%  
15 39% 64% Median
16 21% 25%  
17 4% 5%  
18 0.7% 0.7%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 4% 99.9%  
8 26% 96%  
9 44% 71% Median
10 24% 27%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.7% 100%  
6 15% 99.3%  
7 35% 84% Median
8 43% 49%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.1% 100%  
6 19% 98.9%  
7 55% 80% Median
8 22% 25%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 1.0% 99.9%  
4 27% 98.9%  
5 59% 72% Median
6 13% 14%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 1.2% 98.7%  
2 4% 97%  
3 27% 94%  
4 55% 67% Median
5 11% 12%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Median
1 11% 23%  
2 0% 12%  
3 10% 12%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0.3% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Alþýðufylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alþýðufylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 36 99.8% 34–37 33–38 33–38 32–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð 27 32 70% 31–34 30–34 30–35 29–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn 34 32 71% 31–34 30–35 30–35 29–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 13 32 71% 30–34 30–34 29–34 28–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 23 32 59% 30–33 30–34 29–34 28–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 30 32 60% 30–33 30–34 29–34 28–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 31 31 22% 29–32 28–32 28–33 27–34
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 28 0.5% 27–30 26–30 26–31 25–32
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 27 0% 25–28 24–29 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 26 0% 24–27 24–28 23–28 22–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 25 0% 23–26 23–26 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 22 0% 21–24 20–24 20–25 19–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 23 0% 22–24 21–25 20–25 20–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 19–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 19 0% 18–21 17–21 17–22 16–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 19 0% 17–20 17–20 16–21 15–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 15 0% 14–17 14–18 13–18 13–19
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn 32 15 0% 14–17 14–18 13–18 13–19
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 15 0% 14–16 13–17 13–17 12–18

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 100%  
32 1.2% 99.8% Majority
33 4% 98.6%  
34 11% 94%  
35 25% 84%  
36 33% 59% Median
37 18% 25%  
38 6% 7%  
39 1.4% 1.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0.1% 100%  
29 1.3% 99.8%  
30 7% 98.5%  
31 21% 91%  
32 34% 70% Median, Majority
33 23% 36%  
34 9% 14%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.8% 1.0%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 1.2% 99.9%  
30 7% 98.7%  
31 21% 92%  
32 34% 71% Median, Majority
33 23% 38%  
34 10% 15% Last Result
35 4% 5%  
36 1.0% 1.3%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.7% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.2%  
30 8% 97%  
31 18% 89%  
32 39% 71% Median, Majority
33 22% 32%  
34 8% 11%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 1.2% 99.9%  
29 3% 98.7%  
30 13% 96%  
31 24% 83%  
32 35% 59% Median, Majority
33 17% 23%  
34 5% 7%  
35 1.0% 1.2%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.9%  
29 3% 98.9%  
30 12% 96% Last Result
31 24% 84%  
32 35% 60% Median, Majority
33 17% 25%  
34 6% 8%  
35 1.4% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 2% 99.8%  
28 5% 98%  
29 15% 93%  
30 22% 78%  
31 35% 56% Last Result, Median
32 18% 22% Majority
33 3% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.3% 100%  
25 2% 99.6%  
26 7% 98%  
27 16% 91%  
28 28% 75%  
29 33% 47% Median
30 10% 14%  
31 4% 5%  
32 0.4% 0.5% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.9% 99.8%  
24 5% 98.8%  
25 9% 94%  
26 29% 85%  
27 25% 55% Median
28 21% 30%  
29 7% 9%  
30 1.2% 1.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.8%  
23 3% 99.1%  
24 9% 96%  
25 21% 88%  
26 35% 67% Median
27 22% 32%  
28 8% 9%  
29 2% 2% Last Result
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.7% 99.9%  
22 4% 99.2%  
23 11% 95%  
24 27% 84%  
25 34% 56% Median
26 18% 22%  
27 4% 5%  
28 0.6% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 4% 99.7%  
22 12% 96%  
23 24% 84%  
24 27% 60% Last Result, Median
25 24% 33%  
26 6% 8%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.3% 99.9%  
20 6% 98.6%  
21 16% 92% Last Result
22 34% 76% Median
23 31% 42%  
24 9% 12%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.4% 100%  
20 3% 99.6%  
21 7% 97%  
22 18% 90%  
23 37% 72% Median
24 25% 34%  
25 8% 9%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.4% Last Result
21 9% 97%  
22 25% 87%  
23 45% 63% Median
24 11% 18%  
25 5% 6%  
26 0.8% 0.9%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.6%  
17 5% 98%  
18 14% 93% Last Result
19 32% 78%  
20 31% 46% Median
21 12% 15%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.6% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.2% 99.8%  
16 4% 98.5%  
17 12% 95%  
18 29% 83%  
19 36% 55% Median
20 15% 19%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 5% 99.7%  
14 19% 95%  
15 36% 76% Median
16 25% 41%  
17 10% 15%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.8% 1.0%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 4% 99.8%  
14 18% 96%  
15 35% 77% Median
16 25% 42%  
17 10% 17%  
18 5% 6%  
19 1.0% 1.4%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 7% 99.4%  
14 26% 92%  
15 39% 66% Median
16 21% 27%  
17 5% 6%  
18 1.0% 1.2%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations