Opinion Poll by Félagsvísindastofnun for Morgunblaðið, 9–12 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 27.4% 25.8–29.1% 25.4–29.5% 25.0–29.9% 24.3–30.7%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 22.6% 21.1–24.2% 20.7–24.6% 20.4–25.0% 19.7–25.8%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 15.3% 14.0–16.6% 13.7–17.0% 13.4–17.4% 12.8–18.0%
Píratar 14.5% 9.2% 8.2–10.3% 7.9–10.6% 7.7–10.9% 7.3–11.5%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 6.5% 5.7–7.5% 5.4–7.7% 5.2–8.0% 4.9–8.5%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 6.4% 5.6–7.4% 5.4–7.6% 5.2–7.9% 4.8–8.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 5.5% 4.8–6.4% 4.6–6.7% 4.4–6.9% 4.0–7.4%
Viðreisn 10.5% 3.4% 2.9–4.2% 2.7–4.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.3–5.0%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 2.6% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5% 1.9–3.7% 1.7–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 20 18–21 18–22 17–22 17–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 16 15–17 14–17 14–18 13–18
Samfylkingin 3 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Píratar 10 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Flokkur fólksins 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 0–6
Miðflokkurinn 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 3 2–4 1–4 1–4 0–5
Viðreisn 7 0 0 0 0 0
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0 0

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 4% 99.8%  
18 16% 95%  
19 20% 79%  
20 35% 59% Median
21 18% 24%  
22 6% 6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 8% 99.4%  
15 41% 91%  
16 36% 50% Median
17 11% 14%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.6% 100%  
9 14% 99.4%  
10 49% 85% Median
11 19% 36%  
12 16% 17%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 17% 99.8%  
6 61% 83% Median
7 21% 22%  
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.1%  
2 0% 99.1%  
3 9% 99.1%  
4 65% 90% Median
5 24% 24%  
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 99.9%  
2 0.7% 99.6%  
3 12% 98.9%  
4 69% 87% Median
5 18% 18%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 7% 98%  
2 6% 91%  
3 42% 85% Median
4 41% 42%  
5 1.4% 1.4%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 37 100% 36–39 35–39 35–39 34–40
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 36 100% 34–38 34–38 34–39 33–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 30 36 100% 34–38 34–38 34–39 33–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð 27 36 100% 34–38 34–38 34–38 33–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 23 36 100% 34–38 34–38 34–38 33–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 31 35 99.9% 33–37 33–37 33–38 32–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 13 34 98% 33–36 32–36 32–36 31–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 33 91% 32–34 31–35 31–35 30–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 30 9% 29–31 28–32 28–32 27–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 27 0% 25–28 24–29 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 26 0% 24–27 24–28 23–28 23–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 24 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 20–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 23 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 20 0% 19–21 18–21 18–22 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 19 0% 17–20 17–20 16–21 15–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 16 0% 15–17 14–17 14–18 13–18
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 16 0% 15–17 14–17 14–18 13–18
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 16 0% 15–17 14–17 14–18 13–18

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100% Majority
33 0.1% 100%  
34 1.1% 99.8%  
35 5% 98.8%  
36 18% 93%  
37 34% 76% Median
38 31% 42%  
39 9% 10%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100% Majority
33 2% 99.9%  
34 9% 98% Last Result
35 19% 90%  
36 35% 71% Median
37 25% 36%  
38 8% 11%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100% Majority
33 2% 99.9%  
34 9% 98%  
35 19% 90%  
36 35% 71% Median
37 25% 36%  
38 8% 11%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100% Majority
33 2% 99.9%  
34 9% 98%  
35 19% 90%  
36 35% 71% Median
37 25% 35%  
38 8% 11%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.4%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100% Majority
33 2% 99.9%  
34 9% 98%  
35 19% 90%  
36 35% 71% Median
37 25% 35%  
38 8% 11%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.4%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100% Last Result
32 2% 99.9% Majority
33 8% 98%  
34 19% 90%  
35 31% 71%  
36 22% 39% Median
37 13% 17%  
38 4% 4%  
39 0.6% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 2% 99.9%  
32 7% 98% Majority
33 21% 91%  
34 38% 70% Median
35 21% 32%  
36 9% 11%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 1.3% 99.9%  
31 8% 98.5%  
32 16% 91% Majority
33 32% 75% Median
34 35% 43%  
35 7% 8%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.4% 99.9%  
28 8% 98%  
29 20% 90%  
30 39% 71% Median
31 23% 32%  
32 7% 9% Majority
33 1.4% 2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.9%  
24 6% 99.2%  
25 11% 93%  
26 18% 82%  
27 30% 64% Median
28 24% 34%  
29 8% 10%  
30 1.5% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.9%  
24 8% 98.7% Last Result
25 32% 91%  
26 28% 59% Median
27 17% 31%  
28 11% 14%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0.5% 100%  
23 4% 99.5%  
24 16% 95%  
25 22% 79%  
26 28% 57% Median
27 23% 30%  
28 5% 6%  
29 1.1% 1.1%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.4% 100%  
21 5% 99.5%  
22 14% 95%  
23 22% 80%  
24 33% 58% Median
25 17% 25%  
26 7% 8%  
27 0.8% 0.8%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 2% 99.6%  
21 9% 97%  
22 27% 88%  
23 36% 61% Median
24 20% 26%  
25 5% 6%  
26 0.9% 1.0%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100% Last Result
19 0.8% 99.9%  
20 7% 99.1%  
21 13% 92%  
22 15% 80%  
23 28% 64% Median
24 30% 36%  
25 6% 7%  
26 0.8% 0.8%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.3% 99.9%  
18 8% 98.5%  
19 39% 90%  
20 34% 51% Median
21 14% 18% Last Result
22 3% 4%  
23 0.5% 0.5%  
24 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 3% 99.5%  
17 10% 97%  
18 26% 87%  
19 37% 62% Median
20 19% 24%  
21 4% 5%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 8% 99.4%  
15 41% 91%  
16 36% 50% Median
17 11% 14%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 8% 99.4%  
15 41% 92%  
16 36% 51% Median
17 12% 14%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 8% 99.4%  
15 41% 92%  
16 36% 51% Median
17 12% 14%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations