Opinion Poll by Gallup, 29 September–12 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 23.7% 22.6–24.9% 22.3–25.2% 22.0–25.5% 21.5–26.0%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 23.0% 21.9–24.2% 21.6–24.5% 21.3–24.8% 20.8–25.3%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 13.4% 12.5–14.4% 12.3–14.6% 12.1–14.9% 11.7–15.3%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 9.5% 8.7–10.3% 8.6–10.6% 8.4–10.8% 8.0–11.2%
Píratar 14.5% 8.8% 8.1–9.6% 7.9–9.8% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 7.2% 6.5–7.9% 6.4–8.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.7%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 5.7% 5.1–6.4% 5.0–6.6% 4.8–6.7% 4.6–7.1%
Viðreisn 10.5% 4.8% 4.3–5.4% 4.1–5.6% 4.0–5.7% 3.7–6.1%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 3.0% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1%
Dögun 1.7% 0.5% 0.3–0.7% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0%
Alþýðufylkingin 0.3% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6%
Íslenska þjóðfylkingin 0.2% 0.1% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 18 16–18 15–18 15–18 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 16 16–18 16–18 16–18 14–19
Samfylkingin 3 9 8–9 8–10 8–11 7–11
Miðflokkurinn 0 6 6–7 6–7 5–8 5–8
Píratar 10 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Flokkur fólksins 0 4 3–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Viðreisn 7 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0 0
Dögun 0 0 0 0 0 0
Alþýðufylkingin 0 0 0 0 0 0
Íslenska þjóðfylkingin 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 5% 99.6%  
16 18% 95%  
17 21% 76%  
18 55% 56% Median
19 0.7% 0.7%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.5% 100%  
15 1.2% 99.5%  
16 65% 98% Median
17 23% 34%  
18 10% 11%  
19 1.1% 1.4%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 2% 100%  
8 24% 98%  
9 64% 73% Median
10 4% 9%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 75% 97% Median
7 18% 21%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 26% 98%  
6 70% 72% Median
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 68% 99.9% Median
5 31% 32%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 37% 95%  
4 56% 58% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Median
1 2% 25%  
2 0% 23%  
3 21% 23%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Dögun

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dögun page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Alþýðufylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alþýðufylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Íslenska þjóðfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Íslenska þjóðfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 35 100% 35–39 34–39 34–39 33–40
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 31 34 97% 33–34 32–35 31–35 31–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 31 45% 31–33 31–34 30–34 30–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 13 31 29% 31–34 30–34 30–34 29–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 30 31 45% 31–33 31–34 30–34 30–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð 27 31 25% 30–32 29–34 29–34 28–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 23 31 25% 30–32 29–34 29–34 28–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 29 14% 29–32 28–32 28–32 27–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 28 0% 27–29 26–29 26–30 25–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 26 0.2% 26–29 26–30 26–30 24–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 25 0% 24–27 24–27 24–28 23–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 27 0% 25–27 24–27 24–27 23–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 24 0% 22–24 22–24 21–26 21–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 22 0% 22–24 22–25 22–25 20–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 22 0% 21–23 21–23 21–24 20–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 22 0% 21–22 20–22 20–23 19–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 20 0% 20–23 20–23 20–23 19–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 18 0% 16–20 16–21 16–21 15–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 18 0% 16–20 16–21 16–21 15–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 18 0% 16–18 15–18 15–18 15–19

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100% Majority
33 0.6% 100%  
34 6% 99.4%  
35 54% 93% Median
36 15% 39%  
37 9% 24%  
38 5% 15%  
39 10% 10%  
40 0.7% 0.7%  
41 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.5% 100%  
31 3% 99.5% Last Result
32 6% 97% Majority
33 11% 90%  
34 73% 79% Median
35 4% 5%  
36 1.1% 1.3%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 4% 99.9%  
31 50% 95% Median
32 23% 45% Majority
33 12% 22%  
34 8% 10% Last Result
35 2% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 1.0% 99.9%  
30 8% 99.0%  
31 61% 90% Median
32 12% 29% Majority
33 3% 17%  
34 13% 14%  
35 1.2% 1.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 4% 99.9% Last Result
31 50% 95% Median
32 23% 45% Majority
33 12% 22%  
34 8% 10%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100% Last Result
28 2% 99.9%  
29 6% 98%  
30 19% 92%  
31 48% 73% Median
32 18% 25% Majority
33 2% 7%  
34 5% 5%  
35 0.5% 0.5%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 2% 99.9%  
29 6% 98%  
30 19% 92%  
31 48% 73% Median
32 18% 25% Majority
33 1.5% 7%  
34 5% 5%  
35 0.5% 0.5%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.9% 99.9%  
28 8% 99.1%  
29 57% 91% Median
30 11% 33%  
31 7% 22%  
32 13% 14% Majority
33 1.3% 1.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 2% 99.9%  
26 7% 98%  
27 15% 92%  
28 66% 77% Median
29 7% 11% Last Result
30 4% 4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.5% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.5%  
26 50% 98.8% Median
27 22% 49%  
28 13% 27%  
29 4% 14%  
30 9% 10%  
31 0.3% 0.5%  
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.9%  
24 14% 98.8%  
25 59% 84% Median
26 10% 25%  
27 10% 15%  
28 5% 5%  
29 0.5% 0.5%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 0.9% 99.7%  
24 7% 98.8% Last Result
25 23% 92%  
26 18% 69%  
27 49% 51% Median
28 1.2% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.4%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 4% 99.7% Last Result
22 10% 96%  
23 25% 86%  
24 57% 61% Median
25 1.4% 4%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.6% 100%  
21 1.2% 99.4%  
22 58% 98% Median
23 23% 40%  
24 8% 17%  
25 9% 10%  
26 0.9% 1.1%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.6% Last Result
21 10% 99.0%  
22 66% 89% Median
23 19% 23%  
24 2% 4%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 2% 99.7%  
20 7% 98%  
21 23% 90%  
22 63% 67% Median
23 4% 4%  
24 0.4% 0.4%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100% Last Result
19 0.6% 99.6%  
20 55% 98.9% Median
21 22% 44%  
22 12% 22%  
23 10% 11%  
24 0.6% 0.8%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 17% 98%  
17 11% 81%  
18 46% 70% Median
19 4% 24%  
20 10% 20%  
21 9% 9%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 17% 98%  
17 11% 81%  
18 46% 70% Median
19 4% 24%  
20 10% 20%  
21 9% 9%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 5% 99.6%  
16 18% 95%  
17 21% 76%  
18 55% 56% Median
19 0.7% 0.7%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations