Opinion Poll by Fréttablaðið, 16 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 27.0% 25.1–29.1% 24.6–29.7% 24.1–30.2% 23.2–31.2%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 22.2% 20.4–24.2% 19.9–24.7% 19.5–25.2% 18.6–26.2%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 10.7% 9.4–12.2% 9.0–12.6% 8.7–13.0% 8.1–13.7%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 10.4% 9.2–11.9% 8.8–12.3% 8.5–12.7% 7.9–13.5%
Píratar 14.5% 10.0% 8.8–11.5% 8.5–11.9% 8.2–12.3% 7.6–13.1%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 7.4% 6.4–8.8% 6.1–9.1% 5.8–9.5% 5.4–10.1%
Viðreisn 10.5% 5.0% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.7% 3.3–7.3%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 3.7% 3.0–4.7% 2.8–5.0% 2.6–5.3% 2.3–5.8%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 2.1% 1.6–2.9% 1.4–3.2% 1.3–3.4% 1.1–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 20 18–21 17–22 17–22 16–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 16 14–17 13–18 13–18 13–19
Miðflokkurinn 0 8 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Samfylkingin 3 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Píratar 10 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Viðreisn 7 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Flokkur fólksins 0 0 0 0 0–3 0–3
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0 0

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.2% 99.9%  
17 8% 98.7%  
18 11% 91%  
19 24% 80%  
20 32% 55% Median
21 17% 23%  
22 4% 6%  
23 1.4% 1.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 5% 99.6%  
14 16% 95%  
15 29% 79%  
16 27% 50% Median
17 18% 23%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.7% 0.8%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 19% 97%  
7 23% 79%  
8 50% 56% Median
9 5% 5%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 1.1% 100%  
6 27% 98.9%  
7 44% 72% Median
8 25% 28%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 6% 99.9%  
6 34% 94%  
7 43% 60% Median
8 15% 17%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 1.1% 99.9%  
4 28% 98.8%  
5 52% 71% Median
6 17% 19%  
7 1.2% 1.4%  
8 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100%  
1 0.1% 52%  
2 0% 52%  
3 32% 52% Median
4 18% 20%  
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 4% 4%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 39 100% 37–41 36–42 36–42 35–43
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 35 98.8% 33–37 32–38 32–38 31–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 30 35 98.8% 33–37 32–38 32–38 31–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 31 35 98.6% 33–37 33–38 32–38 31–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 13 34 93% 32–36 31–36 31–37 30–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð 27 33 88% 31–35 31–36 30–36 29–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 23 33 88% 31–35 31–36 30–36 29–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 32 61% 30–34 29–34 29–35 28–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 32 51% 29–34 29–34 28–35 28–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 28 1.0% 26–30 25–30 24–31 24–32
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 27 0% 25–29 24–29 24–29 23–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 26 0% 24–28 24–29 23–29 22–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 27 0% 25–28 24–29 23–29 23–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 25 0% 22–26 22–27 21–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 23 0% 21–25 20–25 20–26 19–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 23 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 20 0% 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 17 0% 15–20 14–20 14–20 14–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 17 0% 15–20 14–20 14–20 14–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 16 0% 14–17 14–18 13–18 13–19

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100% Majority
33 0% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.6%  
36 7% 98%  
37 13% 91%  
38 19% 78%  
39 23% 59%  
40 20% 36% Median
41 11% 17%  
42 4% 5%  
43 1.0% 1.0%  
44 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 1.0% 99.8%  
32 4% 98.8% Majority
33 12% 94%  
34 19% 83% Last Result
35 24% 63%  
36 20% 39%  
37 11% 19% Median
38 5% 7%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100% Last Result
31 1.0% 99.8%  
32 4% 98.8% Majority
33 12% 94%  
34 19% 83%  
35 24% 63%  
36 20% 39%  
37 11% 19% Median
38 5% 7%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 1.2% 99.8% Last Result
32 4% 98.6% Majority
33 11% 95%  
34 20% 84%  
35 25% 64%  
36 20% 39% Median
37 12% 19%  
38 5% 7%  
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 100%  
30 2% 99.8%  
31 5% 98%  
32 11% 93% Majority
33 18% 82%  
34 27% 64%  
35 19% 37% Median
36 14% 18%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.7% 0.7%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.9% 99.9%  
30 3% 99.0%  
31 8% 96%  
32 19% 88% Majority
33 22% 68%  
34 23% 46% Median
35 14% 23%  
36 7% 9%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.9% 99.9%  
30 3% 99.0%  
31 8% 96%  
32 19% 88% Majority
33 22% 68%  
34 23% 46% Median
35 14% 23%  
36 7% 9%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 100%  
28 2% 99.7%  
29 5% 98%  
30 12% 93%  
31 20% 81%  
32 27% 61% Majority
33 21% 34% Median
34 10% 13%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 3% 99.5%  
29 8% 96%  
30 16% 88%  
31 21% 72%  
32 25% 51% Median, Majority
33 16% 27%  
34 7% 10%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.7% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 2% 99.5%  
25 6% 97%  
26 12% 91%  
27 21% 79%  
28 24% 59%  
29 19% 34% Last Result, Median
30 11% 15%  
31 4% 5%  
32 0.9% 1.0% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.0% 99.8%  
24 4% 98.8%  
25 12% 94%  
26 16% 83%  
27 29% 67%  
28 26% 37% Median
29 9% 11%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0.5% 100%  
23 3% 99.5%  
24 8% 97%  
25 16% 89%  
26 28% 72%  
27 23% 44% Median
28 15% 21%  
29 4% 5%  
30 1.0% 1.2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 100%  
23 3% 99.7%  
24 7% 97%  
25 14% 90%  
26 24% 77%  
27 25% 53% Median
28 18% 28%  
29 8% 10%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0.3% 100%  
21 3% 99.7%  
22 8% 97%  
23 14% 89%  
24 25% 75%  
25 28% 51% Median
26 16% 23%  
27 5% 7%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 4% 98%  
21 13% 94% Last Result
22 18% 81%  
23 26% 63%  
24 20% 36% Median
25 13% 16%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.6% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.3% 99.9%  
20 6% 98.6%  
21 18% 92%  
22 23% 74%  
23 23% 51% Median
24 18% 28% Last Result
25 7% 9%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.3% 99.9%  
18 6% 98.6%  
19 18% 93%  
20 28% 74%  
21 23% 46% Median
22 16% 23%  
23 6% 7%  
24 1.1% 1.4%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 5% 99.6%  
15 11% 95%  
16 18% 84%  
17 21% 67%  
18 20% 45%  
19 14% 25% Median
20 9% 11%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 5% 99.6%  
15 11% 95%  
16 18% 84%  
17 21% 67%  
18 20% 45%  
19 14% 25% Median
20 9% 11%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 5% 99.6%  
14 16% 95%  
15 29% 79%  
16 27% 50% Median
17 18% 23%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.7% 0.8%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations