Opinion Poll by MMR, 17–18 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 19.9% 18.3–21.6% 17.9–22.0% 17.5–22.5% 16.8–23.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 19.1% 17.6–20.7% 17.1–21.2% 16.8–21.6% 16.1–22.5%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 15.8% 14.4–17.4% 14.0–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.0–19.0%
Píratar 14.5% 11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.4–13.7% 10.1–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 11.0% 9.9–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Viðreisn 10.5% 6.7% 5.7–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–8.9%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.2–6.6% 4.1–6.8% 3.7–7.3%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 13 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 13 12–14 11–15 11–15 11–16
Samfylkingin 3 11 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Píratar 10 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Miðflokkurinn 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Viðreisn 7 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 0–6
Flokkur fólksins 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 2% 99.7%  
12 12% 98%  
13 46% 86% Median
14 30% 40%  
15 8% 9%  
16 1.2% 1.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100% Last Result
11 7% 99.6%  
12 33% 93%  
13 39% 60% Median
14 15% 21%  
15 5% 5%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.7% 100%  
9 12% 99.3%  
10 33% 87%  
11 33% 54% Median
12 19% 21%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 5% 99.9%  
7 34% 95%  
8 44% 61% Median
9 16% 17%  
10 1.2% 1.3% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.0% 100%  
6 12% 99.0%  
7 47% 87% Median
8 36% 40%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 19% 99.8%  
5 61% 81% Median
6 19% 20%  
7 1.2% 1.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 0% 99.1%  
2 0% 99.1%  
3 11% 99.1%  
4 62% 88% Median
5 25% 26%  
6 1.3% 1.3%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 0% 62%  
2 0% 62%  
3 43% 62% Median
4 18% 19%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 36 100% 34–38 34–38 33–39 32–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 35 99.7% 33–37 33–38 33–38 32–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 30 35 99.7% 33–37 33–38 33–38 32–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð 27 31 41% 29–33 29–34 29–34 28–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 23 31 41% 29–33 29–34 29–34 28–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 13 31 28% 29–32 29–33 28–33 27–34
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 28 1.3% 27–30 26–31 26–31 25–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 31 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 26 0% 24–27 24–28 23–28 22–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 25 0% 23–27 23–27 23–28 22–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 24 0% 22–26 22–26 21–27 21–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 23 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 21 0% 19–22 19–23 18–23 18–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 20 0% 19–22 18–22 18–23 17–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 21 0% 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 18 0% 17–20 17–20 16–21 16–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 18 0% 16–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 17 0% 16–19 16–19 15–20 14–20
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 17 0% 16–19 16–19 15–20 14–20
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 13 0% 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–16

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.8% 100% Majority
33 4% 99.1%  
34 13% 95%  
35 28% 82%  
36 23% 54% Median
37 19% 31%  
38 9% 11%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 2% 99.7% Majority
33 10% 98%  
34 20% 88% Last Result
35 25% 68%  
36 21% 43% Median
37 14% 22%  
38 6% 8%  
39 1.3% 1.5%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.3% 100%  
32 2% 99.7% Majority
33 10% 98%  
34 20% 88%  
35 25% 68%  
36 21% 43% Median
37 14% 22%  
38 6% 8%  
39 1.3% 1.5%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100% Last Result
28 2% 99.8%  
29 10% 98%  
30 22% 87%  
31 25% 66%  
32 23% 41% Median, Majority
33 13% 18%  
34 5% 5%  
35 0.8% 0.9%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 100%  
28 2% 99.8%  
29 10% 98%  
30 22% 87%  
31 25% 66%  
32 23% 41% Median, Majority
33 13% 18%  
34 5% 5%  
35 0.8% 0.9%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.6% 100%  
28 4% 99.4%  
29 13% 95%  
30 27% 82%  
31 27% 55% Median
32 19% 28% Majority
33 7% 9%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.9%  
26 6% 99.1%  
27 19% 93%  
28 28% 74%  
29 23% 46% Median
30 16% 23%  
31 6% 7%  
32 1.2% 1.3% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 2% 99.8%  
24 8% 98%  
25 20% 90%  
26 35% 70% Median
27 21% 35%  
28 10% 14%  
29 4% 4%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.4%  
24 15% 96%  
25 26% 81% Median
26 29% 55%  
27 19% 26%  
28 6% 7%  
29 1.4% 2% Last Result
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 8% 98%  
24 22% 90%  
25 30% 68% Median
26 24% 38%  
27 10% 14%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.4% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 10% 97%  
23 22% 87%  
24 30% 65% Last Result, Median
25 23% 35%  
26 9% 11%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.4% 100%  
21 6% 99.5%  
22 18% 93%  
23 28% 76%  
24 28% 47% Median
25 13% 19%  
26 5% 6%  
27 0.7% 0.8%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 13% 97%  
20 31% 85% Median
21 32% 54% Last Result
22 16% 22%  
23 5% 6%  
24 0.9% 0.9%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.9%  
18 8% 99.0%  
19 20% 91%  
20 37% 71% Median
21 23% 34%  
22 8% 11%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.5% 100%  
18 5% 99.4%  
19 16% 95%  
20 27% 79% Last Result
21 31% 52% Median
22 15% 21%  
23 5% 6%  
24 0.7% 0.7%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 3% 99.5%  
17 17% 96%  
18 35% 80% Median
19 30% 44%  
20 12% 14%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 9% 98%  
17 31% 89%  
18 32% 58% Last Result, Median
19 19% 26%  
20 6% 8%  
21 1.0% 1.1%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.8% 99.7%  
15 3% 99.0%  
16 14% 96%  
17 33% 82% Median
18 34% 50%  
19 13% 16%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.8% 99.7%  
15 3% 99.0%  
16 14% 96%  
17 33% 82% Median
18 34% 50%  
19 13% 16%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 2% 99.7%  
12 12% 98%  
13 46% 86% Median
14 30% 40%  
15 8% 9%  
16 1.2% 1.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations