Opinion Poll by Félagsvísindastofnun for Morgunblaðið, 16–19 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 25.1% 23.9–26.4% 23.5–26.8% 23.2–27.1% 22.6–27.7%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 23.2% 22.0–24.5% 21.7–24.8% 21.4–25.1% 20.8–25.7%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 15.6% 14.6–16.7% 14.3–17.0% 14.1–17.3% 13.6–17.8%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 9.8% 9.0–10.7% 8.7–11.0% 8.6–11.2% 8.2–11.6%
Píratar 14.5% 8.2% 7.4–9.1% 7.2–9.3% 7.1–9.5% 6.7–9.9%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 7.1% 6.4–7.9% 6.2–8.1% 6.1–8.4% 5.7–8.7%
Viðreisn 10.5% 5.7% 5.1–6.5% 4.9–6.7% 4.8–6.8% 4.5–7.2%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 3.3% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.1% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.5%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 1.5% 1.2–1.9% 1.1–2.0% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.4%
Dögun 1.7% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.7%
Alþýðufylkingin 0.3% 0.1% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 17 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 16 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–19
Samfylkingin 3 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–12
Miðflokkurinn 0 6 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Píratar 10 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Viðreisn 7 4 3–4 3–4 0–4 0–5
Flokkur fólksins 0 0 0 0 0 0
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0 0
Dögun 0 0 0 0 0 0
Alþýðufylkingin 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 2% 100%  
16 20% 98%  
17 51% 78% Median
18 25% 28%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 2% 100%  
15 45% 98%  
16 24% 53% Median
17 27% 29%  
18 0.9% 1.4%  
19 0.5% 0.5%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 100%  
10 36% 98%  
11 45% 63% Median
12 17% 18%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 55% 96% Median
7 40% 41%  
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 11% 100%  
5 73% 89% Median
6 15% 15%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.6% 100%  
4 52% 99.4% Median
5 47% 47%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 39% 96%  
4 56% 57% Median
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Dögun

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dögun page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Alþýðufylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alþýðufylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 37 100% 37–38 36–39 36–40 35–40
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 35 100% 34–36 34–36 33–37 33–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 30 35 100% 34–36 34–36 33–37 33–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 13 33 97% 32–34 32–34 31–35 31–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 31 33 87% 31–35 31–35 31–35 31–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð 27 31 50% 31–33 31–34 30–34 29–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 23 31 50% 31–33 31–34 30–34 29–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 31 25% 30–32 30–33 29–33 28–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 28 0% 27–29 27–29 26–30 25–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 28 0% 27–29 26–29 26–30 25–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 27 0% 26–28 26–28 25–29 25–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 26 0% 26–28 25–28 25–29 24–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 23 0% 23–24 22–25 21–25 21–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 22 0% 21–24 21–24 21–24 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 22 0% 21–22 20–23 20–23 19–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 20 0% 20–22 20–22 20–23 19–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 20 0% 19–21 19–22 19–22 18–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 21 0% 19–21 19–22 18–22 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 21 0% 19–21 19–22 18–22 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 17 0% 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–19

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100% Majority
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 100%  
35 2% 99.9%  
36 8% 98%  
37 46% 90% Median
38 37% 44%  
39 5% 8%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.4% 0.4%  
42 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100% Majority
33 3% 99.7%  
34 8% 97% Last Result
35 72% 89%  
36 12% 17% Median
37 3% 5%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0% 100%  
32 0.3% 100% Majority
33 3% 99.7%  
34 8% 97%  
35 72% 89%  
36 12% 17% Median
37 3% 5%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 100%  
31 3% 99.8%  
32 26% 97% Majority
33 46% 71% Median
34 21% 25%  
35 4% 5%  
36 0.8% 0.8%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.4% 100%  
31 12% 99.5% Last Result
32 37% 87% Majority
33 18% 50% Median
34 16% 32%  
35 16% 17%  
36 0.6% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 1.2% 100%  
30 3% 98.8%  
31 46% 96%  
32 38% 50% Median, Majority
33 5% 11%  
34 5% 6%  
35 1.1% 1.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 1.2% 100%  
30 3% 98.8%  
31 46% 96%  
32 38% 50% Median, Majority
33 5% 11%  
34 5% 6%  
35 1.1% 1.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 1.2% 100%  
29 3% 98.8%  
30 19% 96%  
31 52% 77% Median
32 18% 25% Majority
33 7% 7%  
34 0.8% 0.9%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 2% 100%  
26 3% 98%  
27 12% 95% Median
28 72% 83%  
29 8% 11% Last Result
30 3% 3%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0.6% 100%  
26 4% 99.4%  
27 25% 95%  
28 54% 70% Median
29 12% 16%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 4% 99.9%  
26 46% 96% Median
27 34% 50%  
28 13% 16%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 2% 100%  
25 5% 98%  
26 46% 94%  
27 31% 48% Median
28 14% 16%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 3% 99.9% Last Result
22 6% 97%  
23 43% 92% Median
24 42% 48%  
25 5% 6%  
26 1.4% 1.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.3% 100%  
21 25% 99.6%  
22 42% 74% Median
23 22% 33%  
24 10% 11%  
25 1.0% 1.0%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 1.3% 100%  
20 6% 98.7%  
21 39% 93% Median
22 47% 54%  
23 6% 7%  
24 0.6% 0.6%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 2% 100%  
20 50% 98% Last Result
21 16% 48% Median
22 27% 32%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.6% 0.6%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 2% 100% Last Result
19 14% 98%  
20 46% 84% Median
21 32% 38%  
22 5% 6%  
23 1.0% 1.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 2% 100%  
18 1.4% 98%  
19 7% 96%  
20 27% 89%  
21 56% 62% Median
22 4% 6%  
23 1.2% 1.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 2% 100%  
18 1.4% 98%  
19 7% 96%  
20 27% 89%  
21 56% 62% Median
22 4% 6%  
23 1.2% 1.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 2% 100%  
16 20% 98%  
17 51% 78% Median
18 25% 28%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations