Opinion Poll by Gallup, 13–19 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 23.3% 22.0–24.7% 21.7–25.0% 21.4–25.4% 20.8–26.0%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 22.6% 21.3–23.9% 21.0–24.3% 20.7–24.6% 20.1–25.3%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 13.3% 12.3–14.4% 12.0–14.7% 11.8–15.0% 11.3–15.5%
Píratar 14.5% 10.7% 9.8–11.7% 9.5–12.0% 9.3–12.3% 8.9–12.8%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 9.4% 8.6–10.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.1–10.9% 7.7–11.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 7.4% 6.7–8.3% 6.4–8.6% 6.3–8.8% 5.9–9.2%
Viðreisn 10.5% 5.8% 5.2–6.6% 5.0–6.8% 4.8–7.0% 4.5–7.4%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 5.7% 5.0–6.5% 4.9–6.7% 4.7–6.9% 4.4–7.3%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.6–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 16 15–17 15–18 15–18 14–19
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 15 14–16 14–17 13–17 13–18
Samfylkingin 3 8 8–9 7–10 7–10 7–11
Píratar 10 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Miðflokkurinn 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Viðreisn 7 3 3–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 0 3 3–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0 0

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 2% 99.8%  
15 9% 98%  
16 58% 88% Median
17 23% 30%  
18 5% 7%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 5% 100%  
14 14% 95%  
15 54% 81% Median
16 20% 27%  
17 4% 6%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 7% 100%  
8 46% 93% Median
9 40% 46%  
10 5% 6%  
11 1.1% 1.4%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.5% 100%  
6 40% 98.5%  
7 51% 58% Median
8 7% 7%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.4% 100%  
5 31% 99.6%  
6 56% 69% Median
7 9% 13%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.9% 100%  
4 48% 99.1%  
5 50% 51% Median
6 1.1% 1.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0.6% 95%  
2 0.1% 94%  
3 60% 94% Median
4 33% 34%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 63% 90% Median
4 27% 27%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 35 100% 34–37 33–37 33–38 32–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 35 99.3% 33–36 33–36 32–37 31–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 30 35 99.3% 33–36 33–36 32–37 31–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð 27 31 43% 30–33 30–33 29–34 29–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 23 31 43% 30–33 30–33 29–34 29–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 31 31 41% 30–33 30–33 29–34 28–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 13 31 16% 29–32 29–33 29–33 28–34
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 29 4% 28–31 28–31 27–32 26–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 27 0% 25–28 25–29 25–29 24–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 25 0% 24–27 24–27 23–28 23–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 25 0% 24–26 23–27 23–27 22–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 24 0% 22–25 22–25 21–26 21–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 23 0% 22–24 22–25 21–25 21–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 22 0% 21–23 21–24 21–24 20–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 21 0% 20–22 19–22 19–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 21 0% 20–22 19–23 19–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 20 0% 18–21 18–21 18–22 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 18 0% 17–20 16–20 16–21 15–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 18 0% 17–20 16–20 16–21 15–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 15 0% 14–16 14–17 13–17 13–18

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.6% 100% Majority
33 6% 99.3%  
34 28% 94%  
35 31% 66% Median
36 25% 35%  
37 7% 11%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.9% 1.0%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.8%  
32 3% 99.3% Majority
33 16% 96%  
34 28% 80% Last Result, Median
35 34% 53%  
36 14% 19%  
37 4% 5%  
38 1.1% 1.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100% Last Result
31 0.5% 99.8%  
32 3% 99.3% Majority
33 16% 96%  
34 28% 80% Median
35 34% 53%  
36 14% 19%  
37 4% 5%  
38 1.1% 1.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100% Last Result
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.7%  
30 18% 97%  
31 36% 79% Median
32 30% 43% Majority
33 8% 13%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.2% 1.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.7%  
30 18% 97%  
31 36% 79% Median
32 30% 43% Majority
33 8% 13%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.2% 1.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.6% 100%  
29 4% 99.4%  
30 17% 96%  
31 38% 79% Last Result, Median
32 25% 41% Majority
33 11% 16%  
34 3% 5%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 100%  
28 2% 99.8%  
29 13% 98%  
30 33% 85% Median
31 35% 52%  
32 11% 16% Majority
33 3% 5%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.2%  
28 19% 96%  
29 39% 77% Median
30 27% 38%  
31 7% 11%  
32 3% 4% Majority
33 0.9% 0.9%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.3% 99.9%  
25 12% 98.6%  
26 35% 86%  
27 32% 51% Median
28 13% 19%  
29 4% 6%  
30 1.0% 1.1%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.5% 100%  
23 3% 99.5%  
24 15% 96%  
25 37% 82%  
26 24% 45% Median
27 17% 21%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 7% 98%  
24 30% 91% Median
25 45% 61%  
26 11% 16%  
27 4% 5%  
28 1.5% 2%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 2% 99.7%  
22 10% 97%  
23 34% 87% Median
24 37% 53% Last Result
25 13% 17%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.8% 0.9%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
21 4% 99.6%  
22 31% 96%  
23 43% 65% Median
24 16% 22%  
25 4% 5%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.4% 100%  
20 2% 99.6%  
21 23% 98%  
22 48% 75% Median
23 18% 27%  
24 7% 9%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.9% Last Result
19 6% 98.8%  
20 32% 93%  
21 43% 61% Median
22 14% 19%  
23 3% 5%  
24 1.0% 1.2%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.7% 100%  
19 6% 99.3%  
20 26% 93%  
21 41% 67% Last Result, Median
22 19% 27%  
23 7% 8%  
24 1.0% 1.3%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 1.4% 100%  
18 10% 98.5%  
19 36% 88%  
20 32% 52% Median
21 15% 20%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.5% 0.5%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 2% 99.6%  
16 4% 98%  
17 12% 94%  
18 40% 82% Median
19 31% 42%  
20 8% 11%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 2% 99.6%  
16 4% 98%  
17 12% 94%  
18 40% 82% Median
19 31% 42%  
20 8% 11%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 5% 100%  
14 14% 95%  
15 54% 81% Median
16 20% 27%  
17 4% 6%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations