Opinion Poll by MMR, 20–23 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 23.0% 21.3–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 19.9% 18.4–21.6% 17.9–22.1% 17.5–22.5% 16.8–23.4%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.5%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 12.4% 11.1–13.8% 10.7–14.2% 10.4–14.6% 9.9–15.3%
Píratar 14.5% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–11.0% 7.6–11.3% 7.1–11.9%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 8.6% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Viðreisn 10.5% 5.5% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.7%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.5–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 16 14–18 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 14 12–15 12–16 12–16 11–17
Samfylkingin 3 9 8–11 8–11 7–11 7–12
Miðflokkurinn 0 8 8–10 7–10 7–11 6–12
Píratar 10 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–8
Viðreisn 7 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Flokkur fólksins 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 12% 98%  
15 24% 86%  
16 24% 62% Median
17 21% 38%  
18 16% 17%  
19 1.2% 1.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 2% 100%  
12 10% 98%  
13 27% 88%  
14 33% 61% Median
15 20% 28%  
16 8% 9%  
17 0.6% 0.7%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.2% 100%  
7 4% 99.8%  
8 24% 96%  
9 39% 72% Median
10 22% 33%  
11 9% 10%  
12 1.4% 1.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.9% 100%  
7 5% 99.1%  
8 52% 94% Median
9 26% 41%  
10 10% 15%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.3% 100%  
5 20% 98.7%  
6 53% 79% Median
7 23% 26%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 5% 100%  
5 43% 95%  
6 43% 52% Median
7 8% 9%  
8 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 0.1% 77%  
2 0% 76%  
3 37% 76% Median
4 37% 40%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 34%  
2 0.2% 34%  
3 28% 34%  
4 6% 6%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 37 100% 35–39 34–40 33–41 32–41
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 32 59% 29–34 29–34 28–35 27–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 13 32 50% 29–34 29–34 28–35 27–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 30 32 59% 29–34 29–34 28–35 27–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 30 20% 28–32 27–33 27–33 26–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 31 30 17% 28–32 27–33 27–33 26–34
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð 27 29 7% 27–31 26–32 26–32 25–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 23 29 7% 27–31 26–32 26–32 25–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 29 4% 26–31 26–31 25–32 24–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 28 1.1% 26–30 25–30 25–31 24–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 25 0% 23–27 22–28 22–28 21–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 25 0% 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 23 0% 21–25 21–25 20–26 19–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 22 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 22 0% 20–24 19–24 19–24 18–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 20 0% 18–22 18–22 17–23 16–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 19 0% 18–21 17–22 17–22 16–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 19 0% 16–21 16–21 15–22 15–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 19 0% 16–21 16–21 15–22 15–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 16 0% 14–18 14–18 14–18 13–19

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.5% 100% Majority
33 2% 99.5%  
34 5% 97%  
35 10% 93%  
36 20% 83%  
37 23% 63% Median
38 19% 40%  
39 12% 21%  
40 6% 9%  
41 3% 3%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.8%  
28 3% 99.0%  
29 7% 96%  
30 11% 89%  
31 19% 77%  
32 24% 59% Median, Majority
33 19% 35%  
34 12% 16% Last Result
35 4% 5%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.6% 100%  
28 3% 99.3%  
29 7% 97%  
30 15% 89%  
31 24% 74% Median
32 23% 50% Majority
33 16% 27%  
34 8% 11%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.8%  
28 3% 99.0%  
29 7% 96%  
30 11% 89% Last Result
31 19% 77%  
32 24% 59% Median, Majority
33 19% 35%  
34 12% 16%  
35 4% 5%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 1.2% 99.8%  
27 5% 98.6%  
28 9% 93%  
29 18% 84% Last Result
30 21% 66% Median
31 25% 45%  
32 13% 20% Majority
33 5% 7%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 2% 99.8%  
27 5% 98%  
28 13% 93%  
29 22% 80%  
30 24% 58% Median
31 18% 35% Last Result
32 11% 17% Majority
33 5% 6%  
34 1.0% 1.1%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 2% 99.8%  
26 4% 98%  
27 11% 94% Last Result
28 19% 83%  
29 26% 64% Median
30 18% 37%  
31 12% 19%  
32 5% 7% Majority
33 2% 2%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.2% 100%  
25 2% 99.8%  
26 4% 98%  
27 11% 94%  
28 19% 83%  
29 26% 64% Median
30 18% 37%  
31 12% 19%  
32 5% 7% Majority
33 2% 2%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 3% 99.3%  
26 7% 97%  
27 16% 89%  
28 22% 73%  
29 23% 51% Median
30 17% 28%  
31 8% 11%  
32 3% 4% Majority
33 0.8% 0.9%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.9%  
25 5% 98.6%  
26 12% 94%  
27 22% 82%  
28 22% 60% Median
29 21% 39%  
30 13% 17%  
31 4% 5%  
32 1.0% 1.1% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.9% 99.9%  
22 5% 99.0%  
23 11% 94%  
24 17% 83% Last Result
25 21% 65% Median
26 22% 45%  
27 16% 22%  
28 5% 6%  
29 1.0% 1.1%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8% Last Result
22 7% 98%  
23 16% 91%  
24 21% 74% Median
25 24% 54%  
26 21% 30%  
27 7% 9%  
28 1.5% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.8% 100%  
20 4% 99.2%  
21 11% 96%  
22 23% 85%  
23 26% 62% Median
24 20% 35%  
25 11% 15%  
26 4% 4%  
27 0.8% 0.8%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.8%  
20 8% 98%  
21 16% 90%  
22 30% 75% Median
23 21% 45%  
24 17% 24%  
25 5% 7%  
26 1.2% 1.3%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.4% 99.9%  
19 8% 98%  
20 14% 90%  
21 23% 76%  
22 22% 53% Median
23 19% 30%  
24 9% 11%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.7% 100%  
17 4% 99.3%  
18 10% 96%  
19 23% 85%  
20 29% 62% Last Result, Median
21 20% 33%  
22 10% 13%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.5% 99.9%  
17 6% 98%  
18 19% 92% Last Result
19 26% 73%  
20 23% 47% Median
21 18% 24%  
22 5% 6%  
23 0.8% 0.9%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 3% 99.5%  
16 7% 96%  
17 13% 89%  
18 20% 76%  
19 19% 56% Median
20 19% 37%  
21 14% 18%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 3% 99.5%  
16 7% 96%  
17 13% 89%  
18 20% 76%  
19 19% 56% Median
20 19% 37%  
21 14% 18%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 12% 98%  
15 24% 86%  
16 24% 62% Median
17 21% 38%  
18 16% 17%  
19 1.2% 1.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations