Opinion Poll by Félagsvísindastofnun for Morgunblaðið, 22–25 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 24.5% 23.4–25.7% 23.0–26.0% 22.8–26.3% 22.2–26.9%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 20.2% 19.1–21.3% 18.9–21.6% 18.6–21.9% 18.1–22.4%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 15.3% 14.4–16.3% 14.1–16.6% 13.9–16.8% 13.4–17.3%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 9.3% 8.6–10.1% 8.3–10.3% 8.2–10.5% 7.8–11.0%
Píratar 14.5% 8.8% 8.1–9.6% 7.9–9.8% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.4%
Viðreisn 10.5% 8.3% 7.6–9.1% 7.4–9.3% 7.2–9.5% 6.9–9.9%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–8.9% 6.8–9.1% 6.5–9.5%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 4.2% 3.7–4.8% 3.6–5.0% 3.5–5.1% 3.2–5.4%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 1.3% 1.1–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 17 16–18 15–18 15–18 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 14 13–15 13–15 12–16 12–16
Samfylkingin 3 10 9–11 9–11 9–12 9–12
Miðflokkurinn 0 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Píratar 10 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Viðreisn 7 5 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–6
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Flokkur fólksins 0 0 0 0 0–3 0–3
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 9% 99.8%  
16 25% 91%  
17 26% 66% Median
18 39% 39%  
19 0.8% 0.9%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 4% 100%  
13 22% 96%  
14 59% 75% Median
15 11% 16%  
16 5% 5%  
17 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.4% 100%  
9 27% 99.6%  
10 28% 73% Median
11 41% 45%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 16% 99.9%  
6 76% 84% Median
7 8% 8%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 37% 99.7%  
6 62% 63% Median
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 68% 97% Median
6 29% 29%  
7 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 10% 100%  
5 81% 90% Median
6 9% 9%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 35 99.8% 34–36 34–37 33–37 32–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 35 99.9% 34–36 33–37 33–37 32–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 30 35 99.8% 34–36 34–37 33–37 32–38
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 31 31 35% 29–32 29–32 29–33 28–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð 27 30 4% 29–31 28–31 28–32 27–32
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 13 30 7% 29–31 28–32 28–32 28–32
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 23 30 4% 29–31 28–31 28–32 27–32
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 29 0.8% 28–30 27–31 27–31 27–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 28 0% 26–29 26–29 26–30 25–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 27 0% 26–28 26–28 25–29 25–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 25 0% 24–26 23–26 23–27 22–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 24 0% 23–25 23–26 22–26 22–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 23 0% 21–24 21–24 21–25 20–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 22 0% 21–23 21–24 20–24 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 22 0% 21–23 20–23 20–24 19–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 22 0% 21–23 21–24 20–24 20–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 20 0% 19–21 19–21 18–22 18–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 20 0% 18–21 18–21 18–21 17–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 19 0% 18–20 17–20 17–21 17–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 17 0% 16–18 15–18 15–18 15–19

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.8% Majority
33 4% 99.3%  
34 34% 96% Last Result
35 26% 62% Median
36 27% 36%  
37 8% 9%  
38 1.1% 1.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.9% Majority
33 5% 99.3%  
34 31% 94%  
35 24% 63% Median
36 30% 38%  
37 8% 8%  
38 0.6% 0.6%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100% Last Result
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.8% Majority
33 4% 99.3%  
34 34% 96%  
35 26% 62% Median
36 27% 36%  
37 8% 9%  
38 1.1% 1.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 1.0% 99.9%  
29 11% 98.8%  
30 26% 88%  
31 27% 63% Last Result, Median
32 32% 35% Majority
33 3% 3%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
28 9% 99.1%  
29 34% 91%  
30 31% 57% Median
31 23% 26%  
32 4% 4% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.4% 100%  
28 5% 99.6%  
29 30% 94%  
30 26% 64% Median
31 31% 38%  
32 7% 7% Majority
33 0.4% 0.4%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.8%  
28 9% 99.1%  
29 34% 91%  
30 31% 57% Median
31 23% 26%  
32 4% 4% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.4% 100%  
27 5% 99.6%  
28 30% 95%  
29 23% 65% Median
30 32% 42%  
31 9% 9%  
32 0.8% 0.8% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 2% 99.7%  
26 9% 98%  
27 28% 89%  
28 25% 61% Median
29 33% 36% Last Result
30 3% 3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100% Last Result
25 3% 99.6%  
26 12% 97%  
27 51% 84% Median
28 31% 34%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.6% 100%  
23 5% 99.3%  
24 24% 94%  
25 55% 70% Median
26 11% 15%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.5% 0.5%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 4% 99.7%  
23 31% 96%  
24 22% 65% Median
25 36% 43%  
26 7% 7%  
27 0.5% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100%  
21 10% 98% Last Result
22 25% 88%  
23 27% 63% Median
24 33% 36%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 5% 99.7%  
21 21% 95%  
22 31% 74% Median
23 34% 43%  
24 10% 10%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.9%  
20 9% 99.0%  
21 25% 90%  
22 27% 65% Median
23 35% 38%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 5% 99.7%  
21 21% 95%  
22 31% 74% Median
23 34% 43%  
24 10% 10%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 100%  
18 5% 99.8%  
19 25% 95%  
20 55% 70% Median
21 12% 15%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.7% 100%  
18 11% 99.3%  
19 34% 88%  
20 42% 54% Last Result, Median
21 11% 13%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 5% 99.7%  
18 22% 95% Last Result
19 55% 73% Median
20 14% 18%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 9% 99.8%  
16 25% 91%  
17 26% 66% Median
18 39% 39%  
19 0.8% 0.9%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations