Opinion Poll by Gallup, 23–27 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 25.2% 24.1–26.5% 23.7–26.8% 23.4–27.1% 22.9–27.7%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 17.3% 16.3–18.4% 16.0–18.7% 15.7–18.9% 15.3–19.5%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 15.5% 14.5–16.5% 14.2–16.8% 14.0–17.1% 13.5–17.6%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 9.7% 8.9–10.5% 8.7–10.8% 8.5–11.0% 8.1–11.4%
Píratar 14.5% 9.0% 8.2–9.8% 8.0–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 8.9% 8.1–9.7% 7.9–10.0% 7.7–10.2% 7.4–10.6%
Viðreisn 10.5% 8.2% 7.5–9.0% 7.3–9.3% 7.1–9.5% 6.8–9.9%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 1.5% 1.2–1.9% 1.1–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 0.9–2.3%
Alþýðufylkingin 0.3% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2%
Dögun 1.7% 0.1% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 18 16–18 16–19 16–19 15–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 11 11–12 11–13 11–13 10–13
Samfylkingin 3 11 10–12 10–12 9–12 9–12
Miðflokkurinn 0 6 6–7 6–7 5–8 5–8
Píratar 10 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Viðreisn 7 5 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–6
Flokkur fólksins 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0 0
Alþýðufylkingin 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dögun 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.0% 100%  
16 12% 99.0%  
17 28% 87%  
18 52% 59% Median
19 6% 8%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 2% 100% Last Result
11 57% 98% Median
12 36% 41%  
13 5% 5%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 5% 100%  
10 27% 95%  
11 41% 68% Median
12 26% 27%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 67% 96% Median
7 26% 29%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 36% 99.8%  
6 58% 64% Median
7 6% 6%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 30% 99.9%  
6 68% 69% Median
7 1.2% 1.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 54% 97% Median
6 42% 43%  
7 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.1%  
2 0% 1.1%  
3 1.1% 1.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Alþýðufylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alþýðufylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Dögun

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dögun page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 34 99.8% 33–35 33–36 33–36 32–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 33 98% 32–34 32–35 32–35 31–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 30 33 98% 32–34 32–35 32–35 31–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 30 1.5% 29–31 28–31 28–31 27–32
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 13 29 0.2% 28–29 27–30 27–31 27–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 31 29 0.7% 28–30 28–31 27–31 27–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 29 0% 27–30 27–30 27–30 26–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð 27 28 0% 27–29 27–29 26–30 26–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 28 0% 27–29 27–29 26–30 25–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 23 28 0% 27–29 27–29 26–30 26–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 23 0% 22–25 22–25 22–26 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 24 0% 23–25 22–25 22–26 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 23 0% 22–24 22–25 22–25 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 23 0% 22–24 21–24 21–24 20–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 22 0% 21–23 21–23 21–24 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 23 0% 22–24 21–24 21–24 20–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 18 0% 17–19 17–19 17–20 16–20
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 18 0% 16–18 16–19 16–19 15–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 17 0% 16–18 16–18 16–19 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 17 0% 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–19

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.8% 99.8% Majority
33 18% 99.1%  
34 40% 81% Median
35 33% 42%  
36 6% 9%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 2% 99.8%  
32 9% 98% Majority
33 42% 89% Median
34 37% 47% Last Result
35 9% 9%  
36 0.4% 0.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100% Last Result
31 2% 99.8%  
32 9% 98% Majority
33 42% 89% Median
34 37% 47%  
35 9% 9%  
36 0.4% 0.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.6% 100%  
28 9% 99.4%  
29 37% 90% Last Result
30 42% 53% Median
31 9% 10%  
32 1.5% 1.5% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 6% 99.7%  
28 37% 93% Median
29 47% 56%  
30 7% 10%  
31 3% 3%  
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 4% 99.8%  
28 26% 96%  
29 47% 70% Median
30 13% 23%  
31 9% 10% Last Result
32 0.7% 0.7% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0.2% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.8%  
27 21% 98.7%  
28 24% 78%  
29 41% 55% Median
30 13% 13%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 3% 99.9%  
27 32% 97% Last Result
28 26% 65% Median
29 35% 38%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.4%  
27 23% 97%  
28 43% 74% Median
29 28% 31%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 3% 99.9%  
27 32% 97%  
28 26% 65% Median
29 35% 38%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.9% 99.9%  
22 16% 99.0%  
23 42% 83% Median
24 24% 41%  
25 14% 17%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100% Last Result
22 8% 99.7%  
23 20% 92%  
24 55% 72% Median
25 14% 16%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 15% 98%  
23 46% 84%  
24 33% 38% Median
25 4% 5%  
26 0.9% 0.9%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.9% 100%  
21 7% 99.1%  
22 27% 92%  
23 30% 65% Median
24 33% 35%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.8% 100%  
21 10% 99.1%  
22 48% 89% Median
23 36% 41%  
24 4% 5%  
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.9% 100%  
21 7% 99.1%  
22 27% 92%  
23 30% 65% Median
24 33% 35%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 48% 98% Median
18 29% 50%  
19 17% 21%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.0% 100%  
16 12% 99.0%  
17 28% 87%  
18 52% 59% Median
19 6% 8%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.7% 100%  
16 20% 99.3%  
17 47% 79% Median
18 26% 31% Last Result
19 5% 5%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.9% 100%  
16 22% 99.1%  
17 42% 77% Median
18 32% 35%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
21 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations