Opinion Poll by MMR, 26–27 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 21.3% 19.7–23.1% 19.3–23.6% 18.9–24.0% 18.1–24.9%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 16.6% 15.2–18.2% 14.8–18.7% 14.4–19.1% 13.8–19.9%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 12.4% 11.2–13.9% 10.8–14.3% 10.5–14.7% 10.0–15.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 11.7% 10.5–13.2% 10.2–13.5% 9.9–13.9% 9.3–14.6%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.9–13.2% 9.6–13.6% 9.0–14.3%
Píratar 14.5% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Viðreisn 10.5% 8.1% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 2.2% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 14 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 11 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–14
Samfylkingin 3 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10
Miðflokkurinn 0 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Píratar 10 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 6–9
Viðreisn 7 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 13% 98%  
14 35% 85% Median
15 37% 50%  
16 10% 13%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.4% 100%  
10 10% 98.5% Last Result
11 55% 88% Median
12 25% 33%  
13 8% 9%  
14 0.9% 1.0%  
15 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.7% 100%  
7 14% 99.3%  
8 46% 85% Median
9 32% 39%  
10 7% 7%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 18% 97%  
8 61% 79% Last Result, Median
9 16% 18%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 6% 99.8%  
7 22% 94%  
8 60% 72% Median
9 11% 12%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 13% 99.5%  
7 48% 87% Median
8 32% 38%  
9 6% 6%  
10 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 13% 99.9%  
5 56% 87% Median
6 29% 31%  
7 2% 2% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 21%  
2 0% 21%  
3 19% 21%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 35 99.8% 34–37 33–37 33–38 32–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 32 70% 30–34 30–34 29–35 29–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 30 32 70% 30–34 30–34 29–35 29–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 29 30 13% 29–32 28–32 28–33 27–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 28 0.1% 26–29 26–30 25–30 24–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 13 27 0% 26–29 25–29 25–30 24–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð 27 27 0% 25–28 25–29 25–29 24–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 18 27 0% 26–29 25–29 25–29 24–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 23 27 0% 25–28 25–29 25–29 24–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 31 26 0% 24–27 24–28 23–28 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 23 0% 21–24 21–24 20–25 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 22 0% 21–24 20–24 20–25 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 20 0% 18–21 18–22 18–22 17–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 20 0% 18–21 18–21 18–22 17–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 20 0% 18–21 18–22 18–22 17–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 19 0% 18–21 18–21 17–21 17–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 19 0% 18–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 19 0% 17–20 17–20 17–21 16–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 14 0% 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–17

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 100%  
32 1.0% 99.8% Majority
33 7% 98.8%  
34 15% 91%  
35 33% 76% Median
36 24% 44%  
37 15% 19%  
38 4% 4%  
39 0.4% 0.4%  
40 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 2% 99.7%  
30 8% 97%  
31 19% 89% Median
32 32% 70% Majority
33 25% 39%  
34 10% 13% Last Result
35 3% 3%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 2% 99.7%  
30 8% 97% Last Result
31 19% 89% Median
32 32% 70% Majority
33 25% 39%  
34 10% 13%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 1.3% 99.8%  
28 7% 98.5%  
29 18% 92% Last Result
30 30% 73% Median
31 30% 43%  
32 11% 13% Majority
33 2% 3%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9%  
25 4% 99.4%  
26 14% 96%  
27 32% 82% Median
28 27% 50%  
29 18% 23%  
30 4% 5%  
31 0.7% 0.8%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.9%  
25 6% 99.0%  
26 15% 93%  
27 31% 78% Median
28 29% 46%  
29 13% 17%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.5% 0.5%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 2% 99.7%  
25 9% 98%  
26 26% 88% Median
27 30% 62% Last Result
28 23% 32%  
29 7% 9%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.8%  
25 8% 98.9%  
26 26% 91%  
27 32% 65% Median
28 20% 33%  
29 11% 13%  
30 1.5% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100% Last Result
24 2% 99.7%  
25 9% 98%  
26 26% 88% Median
27 30% 62%  
28 23% 32%  
29 7% 9%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 3% 99.8%  
24 10% 97%  
25 25% 87% Median
26 37% 62%  
27 17% 25%  
28 6% 7%  
29 1.3% 1.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.5% 100%  
20 4% 99.5%  
21 15% 95%  
22 29% 80% Median
23 37% 51%  
24 10% 14%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.4% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.0% 99.9%  
20 6% 98.9%  
21 18% 93% Last Result
22 32% 76% Median
23 31% 44%  
24 10% 13%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 3% 99.9%  
21 11% 97%  
22 26% 86% Median
23 31% 60%  
24 20% 28% Last Result
25 7% 8%  
26 1.2% 1.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 13% 98%  
19 28% 84% Median
20 32% 56%  
21 18% 24%  
22 5% 6%  
23 1.1% 1.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 13% 98%  
19 32% 85% Median
20 33% 53%  
21 15% 20%  
22 4% 4%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 13% 98%  
19 28% 84% Median
20 32% 56%  
21 18% 24%  
22 5% 6%  
23 1.1% 1.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 3% 99.5%  
18 19% 97% Last Result
19 42% 78% Median
20 22% 36%  
21 12% 14%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.9%  
17 7% 99.2%  
18 19% 93%  
19 40% 73% Median
20 24% 33%  
21 7% 9%  
22 1.1% 1.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.3% 99.8%  
17 11% 98.5%  
18 37% 88% Median
19 32% 51%  
20 15% 19% Last Result
21 3% 4%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 13% 98%  
14 35% 85% Median
15 37% 50%  
16 10% 13%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations