Opinion Poll by Zenter, 23–27 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 22.5% 20.8–24.2% 20.3–24.8% 19.9–25.2% 19.2–26.1%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 19.5% 18.0–21.3% 17.5–21.8% 17.2–22.2% 16.4–23.0%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 14.7% 13.3–16.2% 12.9–16.6% 12.6–17.0% 11.9–17.8%
Miðflokkurinn 0.0% 10.2% 9.0–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.4–12.3% 7.9–12.9%
Píratar 14.5% 9.6% 8.4–10.9% 8.1–11.3% 7.9–11.6% 7.4–12.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 9.6% 8.4–10.9% 8.1–11.3% 7.9–11.6% 7.4–12.3%
Viðreisn 10.5% 7.1% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.6% 5.6–8.9% 5.2–9.5%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 4.3% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.3%
Alþýðufylkingin 0.3% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.3%
Dögun 1.7% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 15 14–17 14–18 13–18 13–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 14 12–15 12–16 11–16 11–16
Samfylkingin 3 10 9–11 9–12 8–12 8–12
Miðflokkurinn 0 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Píratar 10 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Viðreisn 7 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–6
Flokkur fólksins 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0 0
Alþýðufylkingin 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dögun 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 13% 97%  
15 38% 84% Median
16 33% 46%  
17 8% 13%  
18 6% 6%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 3% 100%  
12 8% 97%  
13 32% 88%  
14 46% 56% Median
15 5% 10%  
16 5% 5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.4% 100%  
8 3% 99.6%  
9 24% 97%  
10 54% 73% Median
11 12% 19%  
12 7% 7%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 5% 100%  
6 31% 95%  
7 45% 64% Median
8 18% 19%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 18% 99.8%  
6 57% 82% Median
7 22% 25%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 12% 99.8%  
6 62% 88% Median
7 18% 26%  
8 8% 8% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 2% 99.8%  
4 43% 98%  
5 52% 55% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 10% 11%  
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Alþýðufylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alþýðufylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Dögun

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dögun page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 37 100% 35–38 34–38 34–39 32–40
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 34 96% 32–36 32–36 31–37 29–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 30 34 96% 32–36 32–36 31–37 29–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð 27 30 7% 28–31 27–32 27–32 25–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 30 8% 28–31 27–32 27–32 25–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 13 31 13% 29–32 28–32 27–32 27–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 23 30 7% 28–31 27–32 27–32 25–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 31 29 3% 27–30 27–31 26–32 25–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 28 1.1% 27–30 26–31 26–31 25–32
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 27 0% 25–28 25–28 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 25 0% 24–27 23–27 23–28 22–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 24 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 21 22 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 22 0% 20–23 20–24 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 20 0% 18–21 18–22 18–22 17–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 10 21 0% 19–22 18–22 18–22 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 20 0% 18–21 18–22 18–22 17–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 20 0% 18–21 18–22 17–22 16–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 20 0% 19–21 18–22 17–22 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 15 0% 14–17 14–18 13–18 13–18

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.7% 100% Majority
33 1.2% 99.2%  
34 3% 98%  
35 16% 95%  
36 17% 79%  
37 47% 63% Median
38 11% 15%  
39 4% 5%  
40 0.5% 0.5%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.6% 100%  
30 1.0% 99.4%  
31 2% 98%  
32 11% 96% Majority
33 11% 86%  
34 27% 75% Last Result
35 37% 48% Median
36 8% 11%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.7% 0.7%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.6% 100%  
30 1.0% 99.4% Last Result
31 2% 98%  
32 11% 96% Majority
33 11% 86%  
34 27% 75%  
35 37% 48% Median
36 8% 11%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.7% 0.7%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.6% 100%  
26 2% 99.4%  
27 4% 98% Last Result
28 12% 94%  
29 24% 82%  
30 36% 59% Median
31 15% 22%  
32 6% 7% Majority
33 0.9% 1.2%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 1.0% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.0%  
27 5% 98%  
28 11% 94%  
29 18% 82%  
30 36% 65% Median
31 21% 29%  
32 7% 8% Majority
33 0.8% 0.8%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.3% 100%  
27 3% 99.7%  
28 5% 97%  
29 17% 92%  
30 22% 75%  
31 40% 53% Median
32 11% 13% Majority
33 2% 2%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.6% 100%  
26 2% 99.4%  
27 4% 98%  
28 12% 94%  
29 24% 82%  
30 36% 59% Median
31 15% 22%  
32 6% 7% Majority
33 0.9% 1.2%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.9%  
26 3% 99.2%  
27 6% 96%  
28 17% 89%  
29 39% 73% Median
30 24% 34%  
31 7% 10% Last Result
32 3% 3% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 2% 99.9%  
26 5% 98%  
27 10% 94%  
28 40% 84% Median
29 26% 44% Last Result
30 10% 18%  
31 7% 8%  
32 1.0% 1.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.9%  
24 3% 98%  
25 13% 95%  
26 18% 82%  
27 50% 63% Median
28 10% 14%  
29 2% 4%  
30 1.4% 1.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 5% 98%  
24 11% 93% Last Result
25 33% 82% Median
26 34% 49%  
27 10% 15%  
28 4% 5%  
29 0.4% 0.6%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.4% 100%  
20 2% 99.6%  
21 5% 98%  
22 15% 93%  
23 16% 78%  
24 46% 62% Median
25 11% 16%  
26 5% 5%  
27 0.6% 0.6%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 6% 98%  
21 17% 92% Last Result
22 40% 75% Median
23 19% 35%  
24 8% 16%  
25 7% 8%  
26 1.1% 1.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.5% 100%  
19 2% 99.4%  
20 9% 97%  
21 36% 88% Median
22 28% 53%  
23 19% 24%  
24 5% 6%  
25 0.5% 0.8%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.2% 99.8%  
18 9% 98.5%  
19 17% 90%  
20 42% 73% Median
21 23% 31%  
22 6% 7%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.1% 99.9%  
18 4% 98.8%  
19 18% 95%  
20 24% 77%  
21 42% 53% Median
22 8% 10%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.4%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.2% 99.8%  
18 9% 98.5%  
19 17% 90%  
20 42% 73% Median
21 23% 31%  
22 6% 7%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.8% 100%  
17 3% 99.2%  
18 10% 97% Last Result
19 22% 87%  
20 41% 65% Median
21 17% 24%  
22 6% 7%  
23 0.8% 0.9%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 3% 99.6%  
18 6% 97%  
19 33% 91%  
20 43% 58% Last Result, Median
21 8% 14%  
22 4% 6%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 13% 97%  
15 38% 84% Median
16 33% 46%  
17 8% 13%  
18 6% 6%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations