Opinion Poll by Gallup, 31 May–1 July 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
24.5% |
23.6–25.5% |
23.3–25.8% |
23.1–26.0% |
22.6–26.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
15.2% |
14.4–16.0% |
14.2–16.3% |
14.0–16.5% |
13.6–16.9% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.1% |
12.4–13.9% |
12.2–14.1% |
12.0–14.3% |
11.6–14.7% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.5% |
10.8–12.3% |
10.6–12.5% |
10.5–12.7% |
10.1–13.0% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.4% |
9.7–11.1% |
9.5–11.3% |
9.4–11.5% |
9.1–11.8% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.5% |
7.9–9.2% |
7.7–9.4% |
7.6–9.5% |
7.3–9.8% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
8.0% |
7.4–8.6% |
7.2–8.8% |
7.1–9.0% |
6.8–9.3% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.1% |
4.6–5.6% |
4.5–5.8% |
4.4–5.9% |
4.2–6.2% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.8–1.2% |
0.7–1.3% |
0.7–1.4% |
0.6–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
16% |
98.7% |
Last Result |
17 |
27% |
83% |
|
18 |
50% |
56% |
Median |
19 |
5% |
5% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
67% |
92% |
Median |
11 |
24% |
25% |
|
12 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
52% |
99.9% |
Median |
9 |
43% |
47% |
|
10 |
4% |
4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
7 |
51% |
99.4% |
Median |
8 |
44% |
48% |
|
9 |
3% |
3% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
35% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
59% |
65% |
Median |
8 |
6% |
6% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
5 |
55% |
99.6% |
Median |
6 |
44% |
45% |
|
7 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
3% |
100% |
|
5 |
89% |
97% |
Median |
6 |
9% |
9% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
30% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
70% |
|
2 |
0% |
70% |
|
3 |
67% |
70% |
Median |
4 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
33 |
84% |
31–35 |
31–35 |
31–36 |
31–36 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
30 |
12% |
29–32 |
29–32 |
29–32 |
28–32 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
28 |
0% |
27–30 |
27–30 |
26–30 |
26–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
28 |
0% |
27–29 |
26–29 |
26–29 |
26–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
28 |
0% |
26–29 |
26–29 |
26–29 |
25–30 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–26 |
23–26 |
23–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
21–24 |
21–25 |
21–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
21–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
20–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
18 |
0% |
17–19 |
17–20 |
17–20 |
16–20 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
18 |
0% |
17–19 |
17–19 |
16–19 |
16–20 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–18 |
15–18 |
15–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
13 |
0% |
12–14 |
12–14 |
12–15 |
12–15 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
12 |
0% |
12–13 |
12–14 |
12–14 |
11–14 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
31 |
16% |
99.7% |
|
32 |
29% |
84% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
18% |
55% |
|
34 |
21% |
36% |
|
35 |
12% |
15% |
|
36 |
3% |
3% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
2% |
100% |
|
29 |
14% |
98% |
|
30 |
41% |
85% |
Median |
31 |
31% |
43% |
|
32 |
12% |
12% |
Majority |
33 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
28% |
97% |
Median |
28 |
30% |
69% |
|
29 |
24% |
39% |
|
30 |
12% |
14% |
|
31 |
2% |
2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
26 |
9% |
99.6% |
|
27 |
19% |
90% |
|
28 |
40% |
71% |
Median |
29 |
29% |
31% |
|
30 |
2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
26 |
12% |
98.7% |
|
27 |
25% |
87% |
|
28 |
49% |
62% |
Median |
29 |
12% |
13% |
|
30 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
3% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
25 |
32% |
97% |
Median |
26 |
22% |
65% |
|
27 |
27% |
42% |
|
28 |
14% |
15% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
18% |
96% |
|
25 |
58% |
77% |
Median |
26 |
17% |
19% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
17% |
95% |
|
24 |
44% |
79% |
|
25 |
31% |
35% |
Median |
26 |
4% |
4% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
29% |
97% |
Median |
23 |
32% |
69% |
|
24 |
26% |
37% |
|
25 |
9% |
11% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
21 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
42% |
95% |
Median |
23 |
28% |
53% |
|
24 |
22% |
25% |
|
25 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
26 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
21 |
9% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
22% |
90% |
|
23 |
40% |
68% |
Median |
24 |
27% |
29% |
Last Result |
25 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
2% |
100% |
|
21 |
15% |
98% |
|
22 |
24% |
84% |
|
23 |
54% |
60% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
6% |
6% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
30% |
98.8% |
Median |
18 |
41% |
69% |
|
19 |
22% |
28% |
|
20 |
6% |
6% |
|
21 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
5% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
43% |
95% |
Median |
18 |
32% |
52% |
Last Result |
19 |
18% |
20% |
|
20 |
2% |
2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
15 |
36% |
99.7% |
Median |
16 |
30% |
63% |
|
17 |
28% |
34% |
Last Result |
18 |
5% |
6% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
12 |
31% |
99.5% |
Median |
13 |
43% |
68% |
|
14 |
23% |
26% |
|
15 |
3% |
3% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
12 |
49% |
98% |
Median |
13 |
41% |
50% |
|
14 |
8% |
9% |
|
15 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 31 May–1 July 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 3243
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.50%