Opinion Poll by Gallup, 31 May–1 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.5% 23.6–25.5% 23.3–25.8% 23.1–26.0% 22.6–26.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.2% 14.4–16.0% 14.2–16.3% 14.0–16.5% 13.6–16.9%
Píratar 9.2% 13.1% 12.4–13.9% 12.2–14.1% 12.0–14.3% 11.6–14.7%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.5% 10.8–12.3% 10.6–12.5% 10.5–12.7% 10.1–13.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.4% 9.7–11.1% 9.5–11.3% 9.4–11.5% 9.1–11.8%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.5% 7.9–9.2% 7.7–9.4% 7.6–9.5% 7.3–9.8%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.0% 7.4–8.6% 7.2–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.3%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.1% 4.6–5.6% 4.5–5.8% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.2%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.2% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 18 16–18 16–19 16–19 15–19
Samfylkingin 7 10 10–11 9–11 9–11 9–12
Píratar 6 8 8–9 8–9 8–10 8–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 7–8 7–8 7–9 6–9
Viðreisn 4 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 5 5–6 4–6 4–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.3% 100%  
16 16% 98.7% Last Result
17 27% 83%  
18 50% 56% Median
19 5% 5%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.1% 100%  
9 8% 99.9%  
10 67% 92% Median
11 24% 25%  
12 1.4% 1.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.1% 100%  
8 52% 99.9% Median
9 43% 47%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 51% 99.4% Median
8 44% 48%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.1% 100%  
6 35% 99.9%  
7 59% 65% Median
8 6% 6%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.4% 100%  
5 55% 99.6% Median
6 44% 45%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 89% 97% Median
6 9% 9%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100%  
1 0% 70%  
2 0% 70%  
3 67% 70% Median
4 4% 4% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 33 84% 31–35 31–35 31–36 31–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 30 12% 29–32 29–32 29–32 28–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 28 0% 27–30 27–30 26–30 26–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 28 0% 27–29 26–29 26–29 26–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 28 0% 26–29 26–29 26–29 25–30
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 26 0% 25–28 25–28 24–28 24–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 24–26 24–26 23–26 23–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 23–25 23–25 22–26 22–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 22–25 22–25 21–25 21–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 23 0% 22–24 21–24 21–25 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 22–24 21–24 21–24 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 21–23 21–24 21–24 20–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 18 0% 17–19 17–20 17–20 16–20
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 17–19 17–19 16–19 16–20
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 15–17 15–18 15–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 13 0% 12–14 12–14 12–15 12–15
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 12 0% 12–13 12–14 12–14 11–14

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.3% 100%  
31 16% 99.7%  
32 29% 84% Median, Majority
33 18% 55%  
34 21% 36%  
35 12% 15%  
36 3% 3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 2% 100%  
29 14% 98%  
30 41% 85% Median
31 31% 43%  
32 12% 12% Majority
33 0.4% 0.4%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 3% 99.8%  
27 28% 97% Median
28 30% 69%  
29 24% 39%  
30 12% 14%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.4% 100%  
26 9% 99.6%  
27 19% 90%  
28 40% 71% Median
29 29% 31%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 1.3% 100%  
26 12% 98.7%  
27 25% 87%  
28 49% 62% Median
29 12% 13%  
30 0.9% 1.1%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 3% 99.9% Last Result
25 32% 97% Median
26 22% 65%  
27 27% 42%  
28 14% 15%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 4% 99.8%  
24 18% 96%  
25 58% 77% Median
26 17% 19%  
27 2% 2% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0.1% 100%  
22 4% 99.9%  
23 17% 95%  
24 44% 79%  
25 31% 35% Median
26 4% 4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 3% 99.9%  
22 29% 97% Median
23 32% 69%  
24 26% 37%  
25 9% 11%  
26 2% 2% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 5% 99.7%  
22 42% 95% Median
23 28% 53%  
24 22% 25%  
25 3% 3% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 9% 99.6%  
22 22% 90%  
23 40% 68% Median
24 27% 29% Last Result
25 1.2% 1.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100%  
21 15% 98%  
22 24% 84%  
23 54% 60% Last Result, Median
24 6% 6%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.1% 99.9%  
17 30% 98.8% Median
18 41% 69%  
19 22% 28%  
20 6% 6%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 5% 99.8%  
17 43% 95% Median
18 32% 52% Last Result
19 18% 20%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 36% 99.7% Median
16 30% 63%  
17 28% 34% Last Result
18 5% 6%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.5% 100%  
12 31% 99.5% Median
13 43% 68%  
14 23% 26%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 49% 98% Median
13 41% 50%  
14 8% 9%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations