Opinion Poll by Gallup, 29 June–30 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.6% 23.7–25.5% 23.4–25.8% 23.2–26.0% 22.8–26.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.7% 15.9–17.5% 15.7–17.8% 15.5–18.0% 15.2–18.4%
Píratar 9.2% 13.9% 13.2–14.7% 13.0–14.9% 12.8–15.1% 12.5–15.5%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.7% 10.1–11.4% 9.9–11.6% 9.7–11.8% 9.4–12.1%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.2% 8.6–9.8% 8.4–10.0% 8.3–10.2% 8.0–10.5%
Viðreisn 6.7% 8.7% 8.1–9.3% 8.0–9.5% 7.8–9.7% 7.6–10.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.6% 8.0–9.2% 7.9–9.4% 7.7–9.6% 7.5–9.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 6.0% 5.5–6.5% 5.4–6.7% 5.3–6.8% 5.0–7.1%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.1% 0.7–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.6–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 16–18 16–18 15–18 15–19
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–11 10–11 10–12 10–12
Píratar 6 9 8–9 8–9 8–10 8–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–8
Viðreisn 4 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 3% 100%  
16 27% 97% Last Result
17 53% 70% Median
18 16% 18%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 14% 99.9%  
11 83% 86% Median
12 3% 3%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 23% 100%  
9 73% 77% Median
10 4% 4%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 22% 100%  
7 75% 78% Median
8 4% 4%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 53% 100% Median
6 44% 47%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100% Last Result
5 60% 99.7% Median
6 40% 40%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.0% 100%  
5 78% 99.0% Median
6 21% 21%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 48% 99.8%  
4 52% 52% Last Result, Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 32 75% 31–33 31–33 30–33 30–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 29 0.6% 28–30 28–31 27–31 27–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 28 0% 28–29 27–30 27–30 27–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 27 0% 27–29 27–29 26–29 26–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 28 0% 27–29 26–29 26–29 26–30
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 27 0% 26–27 25–27 25–28 25–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 22–24 22–24 22–25 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 23–25 22–25 22–25 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 22–23 21–24 21–24 20–25
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 23 0% 22–24 22–24 21–24 21–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 21–23 21–24 21–24 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 21–23 21–23 21–23 20–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 17 0% 17–19 16–19 16–19 16–20
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 17–18 17–18 16–19 16–19
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 15–16 15–16 14–17 14–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 12 0% 12–13 11–13 11–14 11–14
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 12 0% 11–13 11–13 11–13 11–13

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 3% 100%  
31 21% 97%  
32 57% 75% Median, Majority
33 18% 18%  
34 0.5% 0.5%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 3% 100%  
28 10% 97%  
29 59% 87% Median
30 22% 28%  
31 5% 6%  
32 0.6% 0.6% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.4% 100%  
27 9% 99.6%  
28 49% 91% Median
29 33% 42%  
30 8% 9%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 3% 99.7%  
27 48% 97% Median
28 39% 49%  
29 10% 10%  
30 0.5% 0.5%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.4% 100%  
26 8% 99.6%  
27 24% 92%  
28 53% 68% Median
29 14% 15%  
30 0.9% 0.9%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100% Last Result
25 8% 99.6%  
26 35% 92%  
27 54% 57% Median
28 3% 3%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 14% 99.5%  
23 54% 85% Median
24 27% 31%  
25 4% 5%  
26 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 8% 99.7%  
23 29% 92%  
24 49% 62% Median
25 12% 14%  
26 1.1% 1.1%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.9% 100%  
21 7% 99.1%  
22 53% 92% Median
23 34% 39%  
24 4% 6% Last Result
25 1.0% 1.0%  
26 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 17% 97%  
23 67% 80% Median
24 13% 13%  
25 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100% Last Result
21 13% 98%  
22 53% 86% Median
23 25% 33%  
24 8% 8%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100%  
21 19% 98%  
22 53% 80% Median
23 26% 27% Last Result
24 1.5% 1.5%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 5% 99.9%  
17 47% 95% Median
18 36% 47%  
19 10% 11%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 3% 100%  
17 28% 97%  
18 64% 69% Last Result, Median
19 5% 5%  
20 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 3% 100%  
15 34% 97%  
16 60% 63% Median
17 3% 3% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 9% 100%  
12 54% 91% Median
13 32% 37%  
14 5% 5%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 13% 99.8%  
12 71% 87% Median
13 15% 16%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations