Opinion Poll by Gallup, 2 August–2 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.7% 21.8–23.6% 21.6–23.9% 21.4–24.1% 21.0–24.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 19.3% 18.5–20.1% 18.3–20.4% 18.1–20.6% 17.7–21.0%
Píratar 9.2% 12.5% 11.8–13.2% 11.6–13.4% 11.5–13.6% 11.2–13.9%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.7% 11.1–12.4% 10.9–12.6% 10.7–12.8% 10.4–13.1%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.1% 9.5–10.8% 9.3–10.9% 9.2–11.1% 8.9–11.4%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.7% 8.1–9.3% 8.0–9.5% 7.8–9.7% 7.6–10.0%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.2% 7.7–8.8% 7.5–9.0% 7.4–9.1% 7.1–9.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.7% 5.2–6.2% 5.1–6.4% 5.0–6.5% 4.8–6.8%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 14–16 14–16 14–17 14–17
Samfylkingin 7 13 12–15 12–15 12–15 11–15
Píratar 6 8 7–8 7–8 7–9 7–9
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–9
Viðreisn 4 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5 5 4–6 4–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 29% 99.6%  
15 35% 70% Median
16 33% 35% Last Result
17 3% 3%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 1.5% 100%  
12 35% 98.5%  
13 25% 63% Median
14 26% 39%  
15 13% 13%  
16 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 26% 100%  
8 71% 74% Median
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 4% 100%  
7 67% 96% Median
8 27% 29%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.8% 100%  
6 81% 99.2% Median
7 18% 18%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 59% 99.5% Median
6 40% 40%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 93% 97% Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 0% 98.7%  
2 0% 98.7%  
3 79% 98.7% Median
4 19% 19% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 34 100% 33–36 33–36 33–36 32–37
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 31 27% 30–32 29–32 29–33 29–33
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 28 0% 27–30 27–30 27–30 26–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 28 0.1% 27–30 27–30 26–30 26–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 27 0% 26–28 26–29 26–29 26–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 25 0% 24–27 24–27 24–27 24–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 24–27 24–27 24–27 23–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 26 0% 25–27 24–27 24–27 24–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 22 0% 21–23 21–24 21–24 21–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 20–22 20–22 20–23 20–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 19–21 19–21 19–22 18–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 20 0% 19–22 19–22 19–22 19–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 20 0% 19–22 19–22 19–22 18–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 18 0% 17–19 17–19 16–19 16–20
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 15 0% 14–16 14–16 14–16 14–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 12 0% 12–13 11–13 11–14 11–14
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 13 0% 12–13 12–14 11–14 11–14

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.8% 100% Majority
33 31% 99.2%  
34 20% 68% Median
35 29% 48%  
36 18% 19%  
37 0.8% 0.9%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 8% 99.7%  
30 31% 92% Median
31 34% 61%  
32 24% 27% Majority
33 3% 3% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0.8% 100%  
27 36% 99.2%  
28 20% 63% Median
29 32% 44%  
30 12% 12%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 4% 100%  
27 18% 96%  
28 41% 77% Median
29 24% 36%  
30 12% 12%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 17% 99.7%  
27 34% 83% Median
28 43% 48%  
29 5% 6%  
30 0.6% 0.6%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 21% 99.6%  
25 36% 79% Median
26 15% 43%  
27 27% 28%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.8% 100%  
24 27% 99.2%  
25 26% 72% Median
26 22% 46% Last Result
27 24% 24%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 8% 99.8%  
25 32% 92% Last Result, Median
26 33% 60%  
27 25% 27%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 17% 99.8%  
22 36% 83% Median
23 41% 47%  
24 6% 6%  
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 21% 99.9% Last Result
21 36% 79% Median
22 40% 43%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.6% 100%  
19 30% 99.4%  
20 31% 69% Median
21 35% 38%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 20% 99.6%  
20 37% 79% Median
21 16% 42%  
22 26% 27%  
23 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.7% 100% Last Result
19 28% 99.3%  
20 25% 71% Median
21 22% 46%  
22 24% 24%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 4% 99.8%  
17 35% 96% Median
18 50% 61%  
19 11% 11%  
20 0.6% 0.6%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 21% 99.6%  
15 54% 79% Median
16 23% 25%  
17 2% 2% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 5% 99.8%  
12 63% 95% Median
13 29% 31%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 3% 100%  
12 36% 97% Median
13 52% 61%  
14 10% 10%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations