Opinion Poll by Gallup, 3 September–1 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.6% 23.6–25.7% 23.3–25.9% 23.1–26.2% 22.6–26.7%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 19.3% 18.4–20.3% 18.1–20.5% 17.9–20.8% 17.5–21.2%
Píratar 9.2% 11.5% 10.8–12.3% 10.6–12.5% 10.4–12.7% 10.1–13.1%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.7% 10.0–11.5% 9.8–11.7% 9.6–11.9% 9.3–12.2%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.3% 9.6–11.1% 9.4–11.3% 9.3–11.5% 8.9–11.8%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 9.8% 9.1–10.5% 8.9–10.7% 8.8–10.9% 8.5–11.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 6.6% 6.0–7.2% 5.9–7.4% 5.7–7.6% 5.5–7.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.9% 5.4–6.5% 5.2–6.7% 5.1–6.8% 4.9–7.1%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.2% 0.7–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 15–17 15–17 15–18 15–18
Samfylkingin 7 13 12–14 12–15 11–15 11–15
Píratar 6 7 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–8
Viðreisn 4 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–8
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 19% 99.8%  
16 24% 81% Last Result
17 53% 57% Median
18 4% 4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 4% 100%  
12 39% 96%  
13 41% 57% Median
14 8% 16%  
15 8% 8%  
16 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100% Last Result
7 47% 97% Median
8 49% 49%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.1% 100%  
6 30% 99.9%  
7 65% 69% Median
8 4% 4%  
9 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.3% 100%  
6 67% 98.7% Median
7 31% 31%  
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 11% 100%  
6 79% 89% Median
7 9% 10% Last Result
8 1.0% 1.1%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 16% 100%  
4 82% 84% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 0% 99.0%  
2 0% 99.0%  
3 52% 99.0% Median
4 47% 47% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 28 33 98% 32–35 32–35 32–35 31–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 29 0.5% 28–31 28–31 28–31 27–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 29 0.4% 28–30 28–31 28–31 27–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 26 0% 25–27 25–28 25–28 24–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 27 0% 25–28 25–28 25–28 25–29
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 26 0% 26–28 25–28 25–28 24–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 25 0% 24–27 24–27 24–27 23–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 22–24 22–25 22–25 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 22–24 22–24 22–24 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 21–23 21–23 21–24 20–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 21–24 21–24 21–24 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 19–21 19–21 19–22 18–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 18–20 18–21 18–21 17–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 16 0% 15–17 15–17 15–18 14–18
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 14 0% 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–15
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 12 0% 12–13 11–13 11–14 11–14
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 10 0% 10–11 9–11 9–11 9–12

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 2% 99.9%  
32 20% 98% Majority
33 41% 79% Median
34 26% 38%  
35 11% 12%  
36 0.7% 0.8%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 2% 100%  
28 39% 98%  
29 35% 60% Median
30 15% 25%  
31 10% 11%  
32 0.4% 0.5% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 2% 99.9%  
28 16% 98%  
29 49% 82%  
30 27% 33% Median
31 6% 6%  
32 0.4% 0.4% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.8%  
25 22% 98.6%  
26 29% 76%  
27 42% 47% Median
28 5% 6%  
29 0.8% 0.8%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 16% 99.6%  
26 23% 83%  
27 45% 60% Median
28 14% 15%  
29 1.2% 1.3%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.6% 100% Last Result
25 8% 99.4%  
26 44% 92% Median
27 35% 48%  
28 11% 13%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 1.1% 100%  
24 33% 98.9%  
25 34% 66% Last Result, Median
26 20% 32%  
27 11% 11%  
28 0.6% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.3% 99.9%  
22 37% 98.6%  
23 38% 62% Median
24 14% 24%  
25 9% 10%  
26 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100% Last Result
21 2% 99.9%  
22 21% 98%  
23 37% 77%  
24 37% 39% Median
25 2% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.9% 100%  
21 17% 99.1%  
22 27% 82%  
23 50% 55% Last Result, Median
24 4% 5%  
25 0.9% 0.9%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 13% 99.8%  
22 18% 87%  
23 51% 68% Median
24 16% 17%  
25 1.2% 1.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.9% 100%  
19 25% 99.0%  
20 23% 74%  
21 47% 51% Median
22 4% 5%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 1.4% 100%  
18 28% 98.6% Last Result
19 42% 71% Median
20 19% 29%  
21 9% 10%  
22 0.7% 0.7%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.5% 100%  
15 12% 99.5%  
16 62% 87% Median
17 22% 26%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 34% 98% Median
14 48% 63%  
15 15% 15%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 7% 100%  
12 59% 93% Median
13 29% 34%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 9% 100%  
10 66% 91% Median
11 23% 25%  
12 1.2% 1.2%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations