Opinion Poll by Gallup, 3 September–1 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
24.6% |
23.6–25.7% |
23.3–25.9% |
23.1–26.2% |
22.6–26.7% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
19.3% |
18.4–20.3% |
18.1–20.5% |
17.9–20.8% |
17.5–21.2% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.5% |
10.8–12.3% |
10.6–12.5% |
10.4–12.7% |
10.1–13.1% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.7% |
10.0–11.5% |
9.8–11.7% |
9.6–11.9% |
9.3–12.2% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.3% |
9.6–11.1% |
9.4–11.3% |
9.3–11.5% |
8.9–11.8% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
9.8% |
9.1–10.5% |
8.9–10.7% |
8.8–10.9% |
8.5–11.3% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
6.6% |
6.0–7.2% |
5.9–7.4% |
5.7–7.6% |
5.5–7.9% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.9% |
5.4–6.5% |
5.2–6.7% |
5.1–6.8% |
4.9–7.1% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
0.9% |
0.7–1.2% |
0.7–1.2% |
0.6–1.3% |
0.5–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
19% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
24% |
81% |
Last Result |
17 |
53% |
57% |
Median |
18 |
4% |
4% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
4% |
100% |
|
12 |
39% |
96% |
|
13 |
41% |
57% |
Median |
14 |
8% |
16% |
|
15 |
8% |
8% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
47% |
97% |
Median |
8 |
49% |
49% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
30% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
65% |
69% |
Median |
8 |
4% |
4% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
6 |
67% |
98.7% |
Median |
7 |
31% |
31% |
|
8 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
11% |
100% |
|
6 |
79% |
89% |
Median |
7 |
9% |
10% |
Last Result |
8 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
16% |
100% |
|
4 |
82% |
84% |
Median |
5 |
2% |
2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
3 |
52% |
99.0% |
Median |
4 |
47% |
47% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
28 |
33 |
98% |
32–35 |
32–35 |
32–35 |
31–36 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
29 |
0.5% |
28–31 |
28–31 |
28–31 |
27–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
29 |
0.4% |
28–30 |
28–31 |
28–31 |
27–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
27 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
25–29 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
26 |
0% |
26–28 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
25 |
0% |
24–27 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
23–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
22–25 |
22–25 |
21–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
22–24 |
22–24 |
21–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–24 |
20–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
21–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
21 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–22 |
18–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
19 |
0% |
18–20 |
18–21 |
18–21 |
17–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–18 |
14–18 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
14 |
0% |
13–15 |
13–15 |
13–15 |
12–15 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
12 |
0% |
12–13 |
11–13 |
11–14 |
11–14 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
10 |
0% |
10–11 |
9–11 |
9–11 |
9–12 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
20% |
98% |
Majority |
33 |
41% |
79% |
Median |
34 |
26% |
38% |
|
35 |
11% |
12% |
|
36 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
2% |
100% |
|
28 |
39% |
98% |
|
29 |
35% |
60% |
Median |
30 |
15% |
25% |
|
31 |
10% |
11% |
|
32 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
16% |
98% |
|
29 |
49% |
82% |
|
30 |
27% |
33% |
Median |
31 |
6% |
6% |
|
32 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
22% |
98.6% |
|
26 |
29% |
76% |
|
27 |
42% |
47% |
Median |
28 |
5% |
6% |
|
29 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
25 |
16% |
99.6% |
|
26 |
23% |
83% |
|
27 |
45% |
60% |
Median |
28 |
14% |
15% |
|
29 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.6% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
8% |
99.4% |
|
26 |
44% |
92% |
Median |
27 |
35% |
48% |
|
28 |
11% |
13% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
33% |
98.9% |
|
25 |
34% |
66% |
Last Result, Median |
26 |
20% |
32% |
|
27 |
11% |
11% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
37% |
98.6% |
|
23 |
38% |
62% |
Median |
24 |
14% |
24% |
|
25 |
9% |
10% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
21% |
98% |
|
23 |
37% |
77% |
|
24 |
37% |
39% |
Median |
25 |
2% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
21 |
17% |
99.1% |
|
22 |
27% |
82% |
|
23 |
50% |
55% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
4% |
5% |
|
25 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
13% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
18% |
87% |
|
23 |
51% |
68% |
Median |
24 |
16% |
17% |
|
25 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
19 |
25% |
99.0% |
|
20 |
23% |
74% |
|
21 |
47% |
51% |
Median |
22 |
4% |
5% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
18 |
28% |
98.6% |
Last Result |
19 |
42% |
71% |
Median |
20 |
19% |
29% |
|
21 |
9% |
10% |
|
22 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
15 |
12% |
99.5% |
|
16 |
62% |
87% |
Median |
17 |
22% |
26% |
|
18 |
4% |
4% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
2% |
100% |
|
13 |
34% |
98% |
Median |
14 |
48% |
63% |
|
15 |
15% |
15% |
|
16 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
7% |
100% |
|
12 |
59% |
93% |
Median |
13 |
29% |
34% |
|
14 |
4% |
4% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
9% |
100% |
|
10 |
66% |
91% |
Median |
11 |
23% |
25% |
|
12 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3 September–1 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2910
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.10%