Opinion Poll by Gallup, 2–31 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
25.8% |
24.9–26.8% |
24.6–27.1% |
24.4–27.3% |
23.9–27.8% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
17.0% |
16.2–17.8% |
16.0–18.1% |
15.8–18.3% |
15.4–18.7% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.8% |
10.2–11.5% |
10.0–11.7% |
9.8–11.9% |
9.5–12.3% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.6% |
9.9–11.3% |
9.8–11.5% |
9.6–11.7% |
9.3–12.0% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.6% |
9.9–11.3% |
9.8–11.5% |
9.6–11.7% |
9.3–12.0% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
10.3% |
9.6–11.0% |
9.5–11.2% |
9.3–11.4% |
9.0–11.7% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
7.2% |
6.7–7.8% |
6.5–8.0% |
6.4–8.1% |
6.1–8.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
6.2% |
5.7–6.8% |
5.5–6.9% |
5.4–7.1% |
5.2–7.3% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.9–1.4% |
0.8–1.4% |
0.8–1.5% |
0.7–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
4% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
17 |
19% |
96% |
|
18 |
63% |
77% |
Median |
19 |
14% |
14% |
|
20 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
10 |
24% |
99.8% |
|
11 |
56% |
76% |
Median |
12 |
14% |
20% |
|
13 |
5% |
5% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
30% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
69% |
70% |
Median |
8 |
2% |
2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
6 |
48% |
99.7% |
|
7 |
49% |
52% |
Median |
8 |
2% |
2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
6 |
42% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
7 |
56% |
58% |
Median |
8 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
6 |
58% |
99.1% |
Median |
7 |
36% |
41% |
Last Result |
8 |
5% |
6% |
|
9 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
4 |
78% |
99.7% |
Median |
5 |
22% |
22% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
41% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
59% |
59% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
28 |
31 |
28% |
30–32 |
29–32 |
29–33 |
29–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
29 |
0% |
28–30 |
27–30 |
27–31 |
26–31 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
28 |
0.1% |
27–29 |
27–30 |
27–30 |
26–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
0.2% |
27–29 |
27–30 |
27–30 |
26–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
29 |
0% |
28–29 |
27–30 |
27–30 |
27–31 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–26 |
22–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
22–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–26 |
22–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
25 |
0% |
24–25 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
22–26 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–26 |
22–26 |
22–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
20–24 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
20–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–19 |
16–19 |
16–20 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–19 |
16–19 |
16–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
13 |
0% |
12–14 |
12–14 |
12–14 |
12–15 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
13 |
0% |
12–14 |
12–14 |
12–14 |
12–15 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
11 |
0% |
10–12 |
10–12 |
10–12 |
10–13 |
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
7% |
99.6% |
|
30 |
32% |
93% |
|
31 |
32% |
60% |
|
32 |
24% |
28% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
4% |
4% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
27 |
5% |
99.5% |
|
28 |
23% |
95% |
|
29 |
54% |
72% |
Median |
30 |
14% |
19% |
|
31 |
4% |
4% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
27 |
24% |
99.4% |
|
28 |
36% |
76% |
Median |
29 |
32% |
39% |
|
30 |
6% |
7% |
|
31 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
27 |
12% |
99.2% |
|
28 |
30% |
87% |
Median |
29 |
47% |
57% |
|
30 |
8% |
10% |
|
31 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
27 |
8% |
99.5% |
|
28 |
29% |
91% |
|
29 |
53% |
62% |
Median |
30 |
8% |
9% |
|
31 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
32% |
98.7% |
|
24 |
36% |
67% |
Median |
25 |
26% |
31% |
Last Result |
26 |
4% |
5% |
|
27 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
2% |
100% |
|
23 |
14% |
98% |
Last Result |
24 |
40% |
84% |
Median |
25 |
39% |
45% |
|
26 |
4% |
6% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
23 |
10% |
99.3% |
|
24 |
40% |
90% |
|
25 |
46% |
49% |
Median |
26 |
2% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
8% |
98.9% |
|
24 |
30% |
91% |
|
25 |
52% |
61% |
Median |
26 |
8% |
9% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
23% |
97% |
|
24 |
40% |
74% |
Last Result |
25 |
26% |
34% |
Median |
26 |
7% |
8% |
|
27 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
17% |
98% |
|
22 |
51% |
81% |
Median |
23 |
27% |
29% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
13% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
20% |
87% |
|
22 |
47% |
67% |
Median |
23 |
17% |
20% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
19% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
45% |
80% |
Median |
18 |
29% |
35% |
|
19 |
5% |
6% |
|
20 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
14% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
32% |
86% |
|
18 |
40% |
54% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
13% |
14% |
|
20 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
12 |
28% |
99.7% |
|
13 |
45% |
71% |
Median |
14 |
24% |
27% |
|
15 |
2% |
2% |
|
16 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
12 |
18% |
99.7% |
|
13 |
52% |
81% |
|
14 |
27% |
29% |
Median |
15 |
2% |
2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
10 |
37% |
99.7% |
|
11 |
52% |
63% |
Median |
12 |
10% |
11% |
|
13 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 2–31 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 3359
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.95%