Opinion Poll by Gallup, 2–31 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 25.8% 24.9–26.8% 24.6–27.1% 24.4–27.3% 23.9–27.8%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 17.0% 16.2–17.8% 16.0–18.1% 15.8–18.3% 15.4–18.7%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.8% 10.2–11.5% 10.0–11.7% 9.8–11.9% 9.5–12.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.6% 9.9–11.3% 9.8–11.5% 9.6–11.7% 9.3–12.0%
Píratar 9.2% 10.6% 9.9–11.3% 9.8–11.5% 9.6–11.7% 9.3–12.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.3% 9.6–11.0% 9.5–11.2% 9.3–11.4% 9.0–11.7%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.2% 6.7–7.8% 6.5–8.0% 6.4–8.1% 6.1–8.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 6.2% 5.7–6.8% 5.5–6.9% 5.4–7.1% 5.2–7.3%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 18 17–19 17–19 16–19 16–20
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–12 10–13 10–13 10–13
Viðreisn 4 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Píratar 6 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 4% 99.7% Last Result
17 19% 96%  
18 63% 77% Median
19 14% 14%  
20 0.7% 0.8%  
21 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 24% 99.8%  
11 56% 76% Median
12 14% 20%  
13 5% 5%  
14 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.1% 100%  
6 30% 99.9%  
7 69% 70% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 48% 99.7%  
7 49% 52% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 42% 99.7% Last Result
7 56% 58% Median
8 1.3% 1.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.9% 100%  
6 58% 99.1% Median
7 36% 41% Last Result
8 5% 6%  
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 78% 99.7% Median
5 22% 22%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 41% 99.9%  
4 59% 59% Last Result, Median
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 28 31 28% 30–32 29–32 29–33 29–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 29 0% 28–30 27–30 27–31 26–31
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 28 0.1% 27–29 27–30 27–30 26–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 0.2% 27–29 27–30 27–30 26–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 29 0% 28–29 27–30 27–30 27–31
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–26 22–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 23–25 23–26 23–26 22–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–26 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 25 0% 24–25 23–26 23–26 22–26
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 24 0% 23–25 23–26 22–26 22–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 21–23 21–23 21–23 20–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–23 20–23 20–23 20–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 17 0% 16–18 16–19 16–19 16–20
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 16–19 16–19 16–19 16–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 13 0% 12–14 12–14 12–14 12–15
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 13 0% 12–14 12–14 12–14 12–15
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 11 0% 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–13

Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.4% 100% Last Result
29 7% 99.6%  
30 32% 93%  
31 32% 60%  
32 24% 28% Median, Majority
33 4% 4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.5% 100%  
27 5% 99.5%  
28 23% 95%  
29 54% 72% Median
30 14% 19%  
31 4% 4%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.6% 100%  
27 24% 99.4%  
28 36% 76% Median
29 32% 39%  
30 6% 7%  
31 1.3% 1.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.8% 100%  
27 12% 99.2%  
28 30% 87% Median
29 47% 57%  
30 8% 10%  
31 2% 2% Last Result
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.5% 100%  
27 8% 99.5%  
28 29% 91%  
29 53% 62% Median
30 8% 9%  
31 0.7% 0.7%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 1.2% 100%  
23 32% 98.7%  
24 36% 67% Median
25 26% 31% Last Result
26 4% 5%  
27 0.6% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 2% 100%  
23 14% 98% Last Result
24 40% 84% Median
25 39% 45%  
26 4% 6%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.7% 100%  
23 10% 99.3%  
24 40% 90%  
25 46% 49% Median
26 2% 3%  
27 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 1.1% 100%  
23 8% 98.9%  
24 30% 91%  
25 52% 61% Median
26 8% 9%  
27 0.4% 0.4%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 3% 99.9%  
23 23% 97%  
24 40% 74% Last Result
25 26% 34% Median
26 7% 8%  
27 0.5% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 17% 98%  
22 51% 81% Median
23 27% 29%  
24 2% 2% Last Result
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 13% 99.9%  
21 20% 87%  
22 47% 67% Median
23 17% 20%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 19% 99.7%  
17 45% 80% Median
18 29% 35%  
19 5% 6%  
20 0.8% 0.9%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 14% 99.8%  
17 32% 86%  
18 40% 54% Last Result, Median
19 13% 14%  
20 0.9% 0.9%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 28% 99.7%  
13 45% 71% Median
14 24% 27%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 18% 99.7%  
13 52% 81%  
14 27% 29% Median
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 37% 99.7%  
11 52% 63% Median
12 10% 11%  
13 1.1% 1.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations