Opinion Poll by Gallup, 3 November–2 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.5% |
22.6–24.5% |
22.3–24.8% |
22.1–25.0% |
21.6–25.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
18.7% |
17.8–19.6% |
17.6–19.9% |
17.4–20.1% |
17.0–20.6% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
12.0% |
11.3–12.8% |
11.1–13.0% |
10.9–13.2% |
10.6–13.6% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.5% |
9.8–11.2% |
9.6–11.5% |
9.5–11.6% |
9.2–12.0% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.2% |
9.5–10.9% |
9.3–11.1% |
9.2–11.3% |
8.9–11.7% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.8% |
9.1–10.5% |
9.0–10.7% |
8.8–10.9% |
8.5–11.2% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
7.5% |
6.9–8.2% |
6.8–8.3% |
6.6–8.5% |
6.4–8.8% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
6.2% |
5.7–6.8% |
5.5–7.0% |
5.4–7.1% |
5.2–7.4% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
1.3% |
1.1–1.6% |
1.0–1.7% |
0.9–1.8% |
0.9–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
18% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
40% |
82% |
Median |
16 |
34% |
42% |
Last Result |
17 |
7% |
8% |
|
18 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
11 |
18% |
99.5% |
|
12 |
27% |
82% |
|
13 |
47% |
55% |
Median |
14 |
7% |
8% |
|
15 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
7 |
11% |
99.5% |
Last Result |
8 |
8% |
88% |
|
9 |
59% |
80% |
Median |
10 |
21% |
21% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
6 |
66% |
99.2% |
Median |
7 |
33% |
34% |
|
8 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
19% |
100% |
|
6 |
61% |
81% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
20% |
20% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
14% |
100% |
|
6 |
82% |
86% |
Median |
7 |
4% |
4% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
53% |
99.9% |
Median |
5 |
47% |
47% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
3 |
39% |
99.8% |
|
4 |
60% |
61% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
77% |
31–33 |
31–34 |
30–34 |
29–35 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
31 |
21% |
29–32 |
29–33 |
29–33 |
28–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
0.5% |
27–30 |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
28 |
0% |
27–29 |
26–29 |
26–30 |
25–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
28 |
0% |
26–29 |
26–30 |
26–30 |
25–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
20–23 |
20–24 |
20–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
20–23 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–21 |
18–22 |
18–22 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
18–21 |
18–21 |
17–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
19 |
0% |
18–20 |
17–20 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
15 |
0% |
14–16 |
14–17 |
13–17 |
13–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
12 |
0% |
11–14 |
11–14 |
11–14 |
11–14 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
11 |
0% |
10–12 |
10–12 |
10–12 |
9–12 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
3% |
98.9% |
|
31 |
20% |
96% |
|
32 |
41% |
77% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
29% |
35% |
Last Result |
34 |
5% |
6% |
|
35 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
29 |
9% |
98% |
|
30 |
37% |
89% |
|
31 |
32% |
52% |
Median |
32 |
13% |
21% |
Majority |
33 |
7% |
8% |
|
34 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
11% |
98% |
|
28 |
27% |
87% |
Median |
29 |
39% |
60% |
|
30 |
15% |
20% |
|
31 |
4% |
5% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
26 |
6% |
98% |
|
27 |
31% |
92% |
|
28 |
49% |
61% |
Median |
29 |
9% |
12% |
|
30 |
3% |
3% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
26 |
14% |
98.6% |
|
27 |
25% |
85% |
|
28 |
30% |
59% |
Median |
29 |
24% |
30% |
|
30 |
5% |
5% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
25% |
98.9% |
Median |
26 |
41% |
74% |
|
27 |
27% |
33% |
|
28 |
5% |
6% |
|
29 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
23 |
6% |
98.6% |
|
24 |
38% |
93% |
Last Result |
25 |
31% |
55% |
Median |
26 |
15% |
23% |
|
27 |
8% |
9% |
|
28 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
22 |
7% |
99.0% |
|
23 |
15% |
92% |
Last Result |
24 |
37% |
77% |
Median |
25 |
29% |
40% |
|
26 |
10% |
11% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
17% |
94% |
|
23 |
38% |
78% |
Median |
24 |
29% |
40% |
|
25 |
10% |
11% |
|
26 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
9% |
100% |
|
21 |
35% |
91% |
Median |
22 |
39% |
56% |
|
23 |
14% |
17% |
|
24 |
2% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
3% |
100% |
|
20 |
19% |
97% |
Last Result |
21 |
38% |
78% |
Median |
22 |
34% |
41% |
|
23 |
6% |
7% |
|
24 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
31% |
95% |
Median |
20 |
47% |
64% |
|
21 |
13% |
17% |
|
22 |
4% |
4% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
2% |
100% |
|
18 |
8% |
98% |
|
19 |
30% |
90% |
Median |
20 |
40% |
60% |
|
21 |
17% |
19% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
17 |
8% |
99.7% |
|
18 |
28% |
91% |
Last Result |
19 |
44% |
63% |
Median |
20 |
15% |
19% |
|
21 |
4% |
4% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
11% |
96% |
|
15 |
48% |
85% |
Median |
16 |
31% |
37% |
|
17 |
6% |
6% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
11 |
17% |
99.7% |
|
12 |
43% |
83% |
Median |
13 |
29% |
40% |
|
14 |
11% |
11% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
10 |
35% |
99.4% |
Median |
11 |
49% |
65% |
|
12 |
16% |
16% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3 November–2 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 3101
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.46%