Opinion Poll by Gallup, 3 November–2 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.5% 22.6–24.5% 22.3–24.8% 22.1–25.0% 21.6–25.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 18.7% 17.8–19.6% 17.6–19.9% 17.4–20.1% 17.0–20.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.5% 9.8–11.2% 9.6–11.5% 9.5–11.6% 9.2–12.0%
Píratar 9.2% 10.2% 9.5–10.9% 9.3–11.1% 9.2–11.3% 8.9–11.7%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.8% 9.1–10.5% 9.0–10.7% 8.8–10.9% 8.5–11.2%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.5% 6.9–8.2% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.8%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 6.2% 5.7–6.8% 5.5–7.0% 5.4–7.1% 5.2–7.4%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 14–16 14–17 14–17 14–18
Samfylkingin 7 13 11–13 11–14 11–14 10–15
Miðflokkurinn 7 9 7–10 7–10 7–10 7–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Píratar 6 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Viðreisn 4 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 18% 99.9%  
15 40% 82% Median
16 34% 42% Last Result
17 7% 8%  
18 1.0% 1.0%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.5% 100%  
11 18% 99.5%  
12 27% 82%  
13 47% 55% Median
14 7% 8%  
15 0.9% 0.9%  
16 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 11% 99.5% Last Result
8 8% 88%  
9 59% 80% Median
10 21% 21%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 66% 99.2% Median
7 33% 34%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 19% 100%  
6 61% 81% Last Result, Median
7 20% 20%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 14% 100%  
6 82% 86% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 53% 99.9% Median
5 47% 47%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 39% 99.8%  
4 60% 61% Last Result, Median
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 32 77% 31–33 31–34 30–34 29–35
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 31 21% 29–32 29–33 29–33 28–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 0.5% 27–30 27–31 27–31 26–32
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 28 0% 27–29 26–29 26–30 25–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 28 0% 26–29 26–30 26–30 25–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 26 0% 25–27 25–28 25–28 24–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 25 0% 24–26 23–27 23–27 22–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 23–26 22–26 22–26 21–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 22–25 21–25 21–25 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 22 0% 21–23 20–23 20–24 20–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 20–22 20–23 19–23 19–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 19–21 19–21 18–22 18–22
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 20 0% 19–21 18–21 18–21 17–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 18–20 17–20 17–21 17–21
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 15 0% 14–16 14–17 13–17 13–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 12 0% 11–14 11–14 11–14 11–14
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 11 0% 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–12

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 1.1% 100%  
30 3% 98.9%  
31 20% 96%  
32 41% 77% Median, Majority
33 29% 35% Last Result
34 5% 6%  
35 1.2% 1.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 2% 99.9% Last Result
29 9% 98%  
30 37% 89%  
31 32% 52% Median
32 13% 21% Majority
33 7% 8%  
34 0.9% 0.9%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 2% 99.9%  
27 11% 98%  
28 27% 87% Median
29 39% 60%  
30 15% 20%  
31 4% 5% Last Result
32 0.5% 0.5% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 2% 99.9% Last Result
26 6% 98%  
27 31% 92%  
28 49% 61% Median
29 9% 12%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 1.4% 100%  
26 14% 98.6%  
27 25% 85%  
28 30% 59% Median
29 24% 30%  
30 5% 5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 1.1% 100%  
25 25% 98.9% Median
26 41% 74%  
27 27% 33%  
28 5% 6%  
29 1.4% 1.5%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 1.4% 100%  
23 6% 98.6%  
24 38% 93% Last Result
25 31% 55% Median
26 15% 23%  
27 8% 9%  
28 0.9% 0.9%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 1.0% 100%  
22 7% 99.0%  
23 15% 92% Last Result
24 37% 77% Median
25 29% 40%  
26 10% 11%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 5% 99.9%  
22 17% 94%  
23 38% 78% Median
24 29% 40%  
25 10% 11%  
26 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 9% 100%  
21 35% 91% Median
22 39% 56%  
23 14% 17%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.8% 0.8%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 3% 100%  
20 19% 97% Last Result
21 38% 78% Median
22 34% 41%  
23 6% 7%  
24 0.9% 0.9%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 5% 99.9%  
19 31% 95% Median
20 47% 64%  
21 13% 17%  
22 4% 4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 2% 100%  
18 8% 98%  
19 30% 90% Median
20 40% 60%  
21 17% 19%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 8% 99.7%  
18 28% 91% Last Result
19 44% 63% Median
20 15% 19%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 4% 99.9%  
14 11% 96%  
15 48% 85% Median
16 31% 37%  
17 6% 6%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 17% 99.7%  
12 43% 83% Median
13 29% 40%  
14 11% 11%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.6% 100%  
10 35% 99.4% Median
11 49% 65%  
12 16% 16%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations