Opinion Poll by Gallup, 3 December 2018–1 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.7% 21.7–23.7% 21.4–24.0% 21.2–24.3% 20.7–24.8%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 18.4% 17.5–19.4% 17.3–19.6% 17.0–19.9% 16.6–20.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.6% 10.9–12.4% 10.7–12.7% 10.5–12.8% 10.2–13.2%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 11.4% 10.7–12.2% 10.5–12.4% 10.3–12.6% 10.0–13.0%
Píratar 9.2% 10.7% 10.0–11.5% 9.8–11.7% 9.6–11.9% 9.3–12.3%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.5% 9.8–11.3% 9.6–11.5% 9.4–11.7% 9.1–12.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 5.7% 5.2–6.3% 5.0–6.5% 4.9–6.6% 4.7–6.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.5%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.4% 3.0–3.9% 2.9–4.0% 2.8–4.1% 2.6–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 14–16 14–17 14–17 14–17
Samfylkingin 7 12 12–13 11–14 11–14 11–15
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 6–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 7–8 7–9 7–10 6–10
Píratar 6 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
Viðreisn 4 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 3–4 3–4 1–4 1–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 13% 99.8%  
15 42% 87% Median
16 37% 45% Last Result
17 7% 8%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 9% 99.8%  
12 50% 91% Median
13 33% 41%  
14 7% 8%  
15 0.8% 0.8%  
16 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.1% 100%  
7 32% 98.9%  
8 57% 66% Median
9 9% 9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.2% 100%  
7 9% 98.8%  
8 83% 89% Last Result, Median
9 4% 6%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100%  
6 17% 99.3% Last Result
7 70% 82% Median
8 12% 12%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.2% 100%  
6 31% 99.8%  
7 61% 68% Median
8 7% 7%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 0% 96%  
3 37% 96%  
4 58% 59% Median
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100%  
1 0% 70%  
2 0% 70%  
3 53% 70% Median
4 18% 18% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 34 98% 32–35 32–36 32–36 31–37
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 31 49% 30–33 30–33 29–34 28–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 31 39% 30–33 29–33 29–33 29–34
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 28 0.1% 27–29 27–30 26–30 26–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 28 0.1% 27–29 26–30 26–30 25–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 27 0% 25–28 25–29 25–29 24–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 27 0% 26–29 25–29 25–29 24–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 23 0% 22–25 22–25 21–26 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 22–25 22–25 22–25 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 22–24 22–25 21–25 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 21–23 21–24 20–24 20–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 20 0% 19–21 19–22 18–22 18–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 19 0% 18–20 18–21 17–21 16–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 19 0% 18–20 17–21 17–21 16–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 16 0% 15–17 15–17 14–17 14–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 15 0% 14–16 13–16 13–16 12–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 11 0% 10–12 10–13 9–13 8–13

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 2% 99.9%  
32 11% 98% Majority
33 29% 87%  
34 26% 58% Median
35 24% 32%  
36 6% 8%  
37 1.4% 1.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.7% 100%  
29 2% 99.3%  
30 12% 97%  
31 36% 85%  
32 21% 49% Median, Majority
33 24% 28% Last Result
34 4% 4%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 7% 99.7%  
30 26% 93%  
31 28% 67% Median
32 28% 39% Majority
33 10% 11%  
34 0.9% 1.0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.5% 100%  
26 4% 99.5% Last Result
27 23% 95%  
28 38% 73% Median
29 26% 35%  
30 8% 9%  
31 0.6% 0.6%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 1.3% 100%  
26 8% 98.7%  
27 36% 90% Median
28 25% 54%  
29 23% 29%  
30 6% 6%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 2% 99.9%  
25 11% 98%  
26 25% 87%  
27 29% 62% Median
28 26% 33%  
29 7% 7%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.6% 100% Last Result
25 7% 99.4%  
26 24% 93%  
27 33% 69% Median
28 25% 36%  
29 10% 11%  
30 0.9% 1.0%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 1.0% 100%  
21 2% 99.0%  
22 8% 97%  
23 39% 89%  
24 24% 50% Median
25 22% 26% Last Result
26 4% 4%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 18% 98%  
23 36% 81% Median
24 35% 45% Last Result
25 9% 11%  
26 1.5% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 4% 99.9%  
22 25% 95%  
23 32% 70% Median
24 30% 39%  
25 8% 9%  
26 0.5% 0.5%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 3% 100% Last Result
21 22% 97%  
22 39% 75% Median
23 29% 36%  
24 7% 7%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 3% 99.7% Last Result
19 22% 97%  
20 40% 75% Median
21 27% 35%  
22 7% 7%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.4% 99.9%  
17 3% 98%  
18 16% 95%  
19 37% 79%  
20 36% 42% Median
21 5% 6%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 1.2% 99.7%  
17 8% 98%  
18 27% 91%  
19 32% 63% Median
20 27% 32%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 4% 99.8%  
15 33% 96%  
16 51% 63% Median
17 10% 12%  
18 1.4% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 1.1% 100%  
13 7% 98.9%  
14 29% 91%  
15 47% 62% Median
16 15% 15%  
17 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
18 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100%  
9 3% 98%  
10 12% 95%  
11 42% 84%  
12 37% 42% Median
13 5% 5%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations