Opinion Poll by Gallup, 7–31 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.4% 22.3–24.6% 22.0–24.9% 21.7–25.2% 21.2–25.7%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 19.1% 18.1–20.2% 17.8–20.5% 17.6–20.8% 17.1–21.3%
Píratar 9.2% 12.7% 11.8–13.6% 11.6–13.9% 11.4–14.1% 11.0–14.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.3% 10.5–12.2% 10.3–12.5% 10.1–12.7% 9.7–13.1%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.1% 8.4–9.9% 8.2–10.2% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.8% 8.1–9.6% 7.9–9.8% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.4%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.5% 5.9–7.2% 5.7–7.4% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.3% 4.7–5.9% 4.6–6.1% 4.5–6.3% 4.2–6.6%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.7% 3.2–4.2% 3.1–4.4% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–18 15–18 15–18 14–19
Samfylkingin 7 13 12–14 12–14 12–15 11–16
Píratar 6 8 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–9
Viðreisn 4 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 4 4 3–5 3–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 2% 100%  
15 18% 98%  
16 33% 81% Last Result, Median
17 35% 48%  
18 12% 12%  
19 0.6% 0.6%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 2% 100%  
12 29% 98%  
13 45% 70% Median
14 21% 25%  
15 3% 4%  
16 1.1% 1.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100% Last Result
7 2% 99.9%  
8 54% 98% Median
9 25% 44%  
10 19% 19%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 52% 97% Median
8 44% 46%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 23% 99.9%  
6 67% 77% Median
7 10% 10%  
8 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 25% 99.7%  
6 71% 75% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 5% 100%  
4 90% 95% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100% Last Result
1 0% 58%  
2 0% 58%  
3 41% 58% Median
4 17% 17%  
5 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 35 99.9% 33–37 33–37 32–37 32–38
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 9% 29–31 29–32 28–32 27–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 30 1.4% 28–31 28–31 27–31 26–32
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 29 0.7% 27–31 27–31 27–31 26–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 29 1.0% 28–31 28–31 27–31 27–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 26 0% 24–28 24–28 24–28 23–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 26 0% 25–27 25–28 24–28 24–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 24 0% 23–26 23–26 23–27 22–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 23–25 22–25 22–25 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 20–24 20–24 20–24 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 20–24 20–24 20–24 19–25
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 20 0% 19–22 19–22 19–22 18–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 20 0% 19–22 19–22 18–22 18–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 17 0% 16–18 16–18 15–19 14–20
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 15–18 15–18 15–18 14–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 13 0% 12–14 12–14 12–15 11–15
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 11 0% 11–12 11–12 10–13 9–13

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 3% 99.9% Majority
33 22% 97%  
34 16% 75% Median
35 23% 59%  
36 13% 36%  
37 21% 22%  
38 1.0% 1.0%  
39 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.9% 100%  
28 4% 99.0%  
29 24% 95%  
30 26% 71% Median
31 36% 45%  
32 7% 9% Majority
33 2% 2% Last Result
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.6% 100%  
27 3% 99.4%  
28 14% 96%  
29 13% 83% Median
30 55% 70%  
31 13% 14%  
32 1.3% 1.4% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 18% 99.3%  
28 17% 81% Median
29 29% 65%  
30 14% 36%  
31 22% 22%  
32 0.7% 0.7% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 100%  
27 3% 99.8%  
28 11% 96%  
29 48% 85% Median
30 19% 37%  
31 18% 19%  
32 1.0% 1.0% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.6% 100%  
24 11% 99.4%  
25 12% 89%  
26 35% 76% Median
27 29% 41%  
28 12% 13%  
29 0.3% 0.5%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.5% 100%  
24 4% 99.5%  
25 24% 96%  
26 26% 71% Last Result, Median
27 36% 45%  
28 8% 9%  
29 1.4% 1.4%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 20% 98%  
24 32% 78% Median
25 28% 46% Last Result
26 15% 18%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.4% 99.8%  
22 5% 98%  
23 23% 94% Median
24 52% 71%  
25 17% 19%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 10% 99.6%  
21 12% 89%  
22 35% 77% Median
23 30% 42%  
24 11% 11% Last Result
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.7% 100%  
20 10% 99.3% Last Result
21 13% 90%  
22 31% 77% Median
23 31% 45%  
24 14% 15%  
25 0.8% 0.8%  
26 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 2% 100% Last Result
19 19% 98%  
20 32% 79% Median
21 31% 47%  
22 15% 17%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 3% 99.7%  
19 16% 97%  
20 33% 81% Median
21 36% 48%  
22 12% 13%  
23 0.9% 1.1% Last Result
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.6% 100%  
15 2% 99.4%  
16 10% 97%  
17 53% 88% Median
18 30% 34%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.9% 0.9%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 33% 98% Median
16 38% 65%  
17 12% 27% Last Result
18 16% 16%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 9% 98%  
13 55% 89% Median
14 30% 34%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.7% 100%  
10 4% 99.3%  
11 50% 95% Median
12 40% 45%  
13 5% 5%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations