Opinion Poll by Gallup, 7–31 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.4% |
22.3–24.6% |
22.0–24.9% |
21.7–25.2% |
21.2–25.7% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
19.1% |
18.1–20.2% |
17.8–20.5% |
17.6–20.8% |
17.1–21.3% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
12.7% |
11.8–13.6% |
11.6–13.9% |
11.4–14.1% |
11.0–14.6% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.3% |
10.5–12.2% |
10.3–12.5% |
10.1–12.7% |
9.7–13.1% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.1% |
8.4–9.9% |
8.2–10.2% |
8.0–10.3% |
7.7–10.7% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.8% |
8.1–9.6% |
7.9–9.8% |
7.7–10.0% |
7.4–10.4% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
6.5% |
5.9–7.2% |
5.7–7.4% |
5.6–7.6% |
5.3–7.9% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
5.3% |
4.7–5.9% |
4.6–6.1% |
4.5–6.3% |
4.2–6.6% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.7% |
3.2–4.2% |
3.1–4.4% |
3.0–4.5% |
2.8–4.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
2% |
100% |
|
15 |
18% |
98% |
|
16 |
33% |
81% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
35% |
48% |
|
18 |
12% |
12% |
|
19 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
2% |
100% |
|
12 |
29% |
98% |
|
13 |
45% |
70% |
Median |
14 |
21% |
25% |
|
15 |
3% |
4% |
|
16 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
54% |
98% |
Median |
9 |
25% |
44% |
|
10 |
19% |
19% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
3% |
100% |
|
7 |
52% |
97% |
Median |
8 |
44% |
46% |
|
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
23% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
67% |
77% |
Median |
7 |
10% |
10% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
25% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
71% |
75% |
Median |
7 |
4% |
4% |
|
8 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
5% |
100% |
|
4 |
90% |
95% |
Median |
5 |
5% |
5% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
42% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
58% |
|
2 |
0% |
58% |
|
3 |
41% |
58% |
Median |
4 |
17% |
17% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.8% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
35 |
99.9% |
33–37 |
33–37 |
32–37 |
32–38 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
30 |
9% |
29–31 |
29–32 |
28–32 |
27–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
30 |
1.4% |
28–31 |
28–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
29 |
0.7% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
29 |
1.0% |
28–31 |
28–31 |
27–31 |
27–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
26 |
0% |
24–28 |
24–28 |
24–28 |
23–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–26 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
22–25 |
22–25 |
21–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–24 |
20–24 |
20–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–24 |
20–24 |
19–25 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–22 |
18–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–18 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
16 |
0% |
15–18 |
15–18 |
15–18 |
14–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
13 |
0% |
12–14 |
12–14 |
12–15 |
11–15 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
11 |
0% |
11–12 |
11–12 |
10–13 |
9–13 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
32 |
3% |
99.9% |
Majority |
33 |
22% |
97% |
|
34 |
16% |
75% |
Median |
35 |
23% |
59% |
|
36 |
13% |
36% |
|
37 |
21% |
22% |
|
38 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
28 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
29 |
24% |
95% |
|
30 |
26% |
71% |
Median |
31 |
36% |
45% |
|
32 |
7% |
9% |
Majority |
33 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
27 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
28 |
14% |
96% |
|
29 |
13% |
83% |
Median |
30 |
55% |
70% |
|
31 |
13% |
14% |
|
32 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
18% |
99.3% |
|
28 |
17% |
81% |
Median |
29 |
29% |
65% |
|
30 |
14% |
36% |
|
31 |
22% |
22% |
|
32 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
11% |
96% |
|
29 |
48% |
85% |
Median |
30 |
19% |
37% |
|
31 |
18% |
19% |
|
32 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
24 |
11% |
99.4% |
|
25 |
12% |
89% |
|
26 |
35% |
76% |
Median |
27 |
29% |
41% |
|
28 |
12% |
13% |
|
29 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
24 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
25 |
24% |
96% |
|
26 |
26% |
71% |
Last Result, Median |
27 |
36% |
45% |
|
28 |
8% |
9% |
|
29 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
20% |
98% |
|
24 |
32% |
78% |
Median |
25 |
28% |
46% |
Last Result |
26 |
15% |
18% |
|
27 |
3% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
5% |
98% |
|
23 |
23% |
94% |
Median |
24 |
52% |
71% |
|
25 |
17% |
19% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
20 |
10% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
12% |
89% |
|
22 |
35% |
77% |
Median |
23 |
30% |
42% |
|
24 |
11% |
11% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
20 |
10% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
21 |
13% |
90% |
|
22 |
31% |
77% |
Median |
23 |
31% |
45% |
|
24 |
14% |
15% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
19% |
98% |
|
20 |
32% |
79% |
Median |
21 |
31% |
47% |
|
22 |
15% |
17% |
|
23 |
2% |
2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
19 |
16% |
97% |
|
20 |
33% |
81% |
Median |
21 |
36% |
48% |
|
22 |
12% |
13% |
|
23 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
16 |
10% |
97% |
|
17 |
53% |
88% |
Median |
18 |
30% |
34% |
|
19 |
3% |
4% |
|
20 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
33% |
98% |
Median |
16 |
38% |
65% |
|
17 |
12% |
27% |
Last Result |
18 |
16% |
16% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
2% |
100% |
|
12 |
9% |
98% |
|
13 |
55% |
89% |
Median |
14 |
30% |
34% |
|
15 |
3% |
4% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
10 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
11 |
50% |
95% |
Median |
12 |
40% |
45% |
|
13 |
5% |
5% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 7–31 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2307
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.81%