Opinion Poll by MMR, 11–15 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.7% 21.0–24.5% 20.5–25.0% 20.1–25.5% 19.3–26.4%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.0% 14.5–17.6% 14.1–18.0% 13.7–18.4% 13.1–19.2%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 13.5% 12.1–15.0% 11.8–15.5% 11.4–15.8% 10.8–16.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.1% 9.9–12.6% 9.6–13.0% 9.3–13.3% 8.7–14.0%
Píratar 9.2% 10.4% 9.2–11.8% 8.9–12.2% 8.6–12.5% 8.0–13.2%
Viðreisn 6.7% 8.1% 7.1–9.4% 6.8–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.1–10.7%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.5% 5.5–8.8% 5.1–9.4%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.4%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.6% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19
Samfylkingin 7 10 10–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 10 8–11 8–12 8–12 8–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Píratar 6 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Viðreisn 4 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–5 3–6 3–6 3–6
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 3–4 3–5 1–5 1–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0–3 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 3% 100%  
14 22% 97%  
15 35% 74% Median
16 25% 39% Last Result
17 10% 14%  
18 2% 4%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.5% 100%  
9 6% 99.5%  
10 44% 93% Median
11 33% 49%  
12 15% 17%  
13 1.2% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 16% 99.8% Last Result
9 16% 83%  
10 50% 68% Median
11 11% 18%  
12 7% 7%  
13 0.2% 0.4%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 16% 99.4%  
7 36% 83% Median
8 41% 47%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 39% 96% Last Result
7 42% 57% Median
8 14% 15%  
9 1.1% 1.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 12% 99.9% Last Result
5 57% 88% Median
6 28% 31%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 10% 99.8%  
4 58% 89% Last Result, Median
5 26% 32%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 5% 99.9%  
2 0% 95%  
3 23% 95%  
4 63% 72% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 2% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 32 79% 31–34 30–35 30–35 29–36
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 33 32 55% 29–33 29–34 29–34 28–35
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 30 10% 28–31 27–32 27–32 26–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 29 4% 27–31 27–31 26–32 25–33
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 28 0.3% 26–30 25–30 25–30 24–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 24–28 24–28 24–29 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 25 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 22–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 25 0% 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 20–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 22 0% 20–23 19–24 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–22 19–23 18–24 18–25
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 21 0% 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 19 0% 18–21 17–21 16–22 15–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 17–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 17 0% 16–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 14 0% 13–15 12–16 12–16 11–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 11 0% 10–12 9–13 8–13 8–14

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 1.0% 99.9%  
30 7% 98.9%  
31 13% 92%  
32 34% 79% Median, Majority
33 25% 45%  
34 14% 20%  
35 4% 6% Last Result
36 1.2% 1.4%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.4% 100%  
28 2% 99.6%  
29 9% 98%  
30 17% 89%  
31 18% 73% Median
32 33% 55% Majority
33 12% 22% Last Result
34 8% 9%  
35 0.8% 0.9%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.8%  
27 4% 99.0%  
28 8% 95% Last Result
29 23% 87% Median
30 33% 64%  
31 21% 31%  
32 7% 10% Majority
33 2% 2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.0% 99.9%  
26 4% 98.9%  
27 11% 95%  
28 26% 84%  
29 31% 58% Median
30 16% 27%  
31 7% 10% Last Result
32 3% 4% Majority
33 0.7% 0.8%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.8%  
25 5% 99.0%  
26 13% 94% Last Result
27 18% 81% Median
28 37% 63%  
29 15% 26%  
30 9% 11%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.3% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 2% 99.8% Last Result
24 11% 98%  
25 27% 87% Median
26 31% 61%  
27 18% 30%  
28 8% 11%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 6% 98%  
24 28% 92% Last Result
25 32% 64% Median
26 19% 32%  
27 8% 13%  
28 3% 5%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.2% 99.8%  
22 5% 98.6%  
23 11% 94%  
24 24% 83% Last Result, Median
25 34% 59%  
26 19% 25%  
27 4% 5%  
28 0.9% 1.1%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 4% 99.5%  
21 14% 96%  
22 27% 82% Median
23 29% 55%  
24 19% 25%  
25 5% 7%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.0% 99.8%  
19 5% 98.8%  
20 13% 94%  
21 21% 81% Median
22 34% 60%  
23 16% 26%  
24 9% 10%  
25 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 2% 99.7%  
19 21% 97%  
20 28% 77% Last Result, Median
21 29% 48%  
22 14% 20%  
23 3% 6%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.6% 0.6%  
26 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.9%  
18 5% 99.1%  
19 11% 94%  
20 25% 84%  
21 22% 59% Median
22 28% 37%  
23 8% 9%  
24 1.4% 1.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.4%  
17 6% 97%  
18 25% 91%  
19 33% 66% Median
20 21% 33%  
21 8% 11%  
22 2% 3%  
23 1.1% 1.2% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 8% 98%  
17 24% 90% Median
18 34% 66% Last Result
19 24% 33%  
20 8% 9%  
21 1.0% 1.2%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 8% 98%  
16 21% 90%  
17 27% 69% Median
18 32% 43%  
19 9% 11% Last Result
20 1.2% 1.4%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.5% 99.9%  
12 8% 98%  
13 18% 90%  
14 36% 72% Median
15 30% 37%  
16 5% 6%  
17 1.3% 1.4% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 2% 99.7%  
9 7% 97%  
10 19% 91%  
11 31% 72% Median
12 33% 40%  
13 7% 7%  
14 0.6% 0.6%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations