Opinion Poll by MMR, 11–15 February 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
22.7% |
21.0–24.5% |
20.5–25.0% |
20.1–25.5% |
19.3–26.4% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
16.0% |
14.5–17.6% |
14.1–18.0% |
13.7–18.4% |
13.1–19.2% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
13.5% |
12.1–15.0% |
11.8–15.5% |
11.4–15.8% |
10.8–16.6% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.1% |
9.9–12.6% |
9.6–13.0% |
9.3–13.3% |
8.7–14.0% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.4% |
9.2–11.8% |
8.9–12.2% |
8.6–12.5% |
8.0–13.2% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
8.1% |
7.1–9.4% |
6.8–9.8% |
6.6–10.1% |
6.1–10.7% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
7.0% |
6.0–8.1% |
5.7–8.5% |
5.5–8.8% |
5.1–9.4% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
6.1% |
5.2–7.2% |
5.0–7.5% |
4.7–7.8% |
4.3–8.4% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.6% |
3.0–4.6% |
2.8–4.8% |
2.6–5.0% |
2.3–5.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
3% |
100% |
|
14 |
22% |
97% |
|
15 |
35% |
74% |
Median |
16 |
25% |
39% |
Last Result |
17 |
10% |
14% |
|
18 |
2% |
4% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
9 |
6% |
99.5% |
|
10 |
44% |
93% |
Median |
11 |
33% |
49% |
|
12 |
15% |
17% |
|
13 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
14 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
8 |
16% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
9 |
16% |
83% |
|
10 |
50% |
68% |
Median |
11 |
11% |
18% |
|
12 |
7% |
7% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
6 |
16% |
99.4% |
|
7 |
36% |
83% |
Median |
8 |
41% |
47% |
|
9 |
5% |
6% |
|
10 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
39% |
96% |
Last Result |
7 |
42% |
57% |
Median |
8 |
14% |
15% |
|
9 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
12% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
5 |
57% |
88% |
Median |
6 |
28% |
31% |
|
7 |
3% |
3% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
3 |
10% |
99.8% |
|
4 |
58% |
89% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
26% |
32% |
|
6 |
6% |
6% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
2 |
0% |
95% |
|
3 |
23% |
95% |
|
4 |
63% |
72% |
Median |
5 |
9% |
9% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
3% |
|
2 |
0% |
3% |
|
3 |
2% |
3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
32 |
79% |
31–34 |
30–35 |
30–35 |
29–36 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
55% |
29–33 |
29–34 |
29–34 |
28–35 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
30 |
10% |
28–31 |
27–32 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
4% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
25–33 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
28 |
0.3% |
26–30 |
25–30 |
25–30 |
24–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
26 |
0% |
24–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
23–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
25 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
20–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–24 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
18–25 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
18–23 |
18–23 |
17–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
19 |
0% |
18–21 |
17–21 |
16–22 |
15–23 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
18 |
0% |
17–19 |
16–20 |
16–20 |
15–21 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
14 |
0% |
13–15 |
12–16 |
12–16 |
11–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
11 |
0% |
10–12 |
9–13 |
8–13 |
8–14 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
7% |
98.9% |
|
31 |
13% |
92% |
|
32 |
34% |
79% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
25% |
45% |
|
34 |
14% |
20% |
|
35 |
4% |
6% |
Last Result |
36 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
29 |
9% |
98% |
|
30 |
17% |
89% |
|
31 |
18% |
73% |
Median |
32 |
33% |
55% |
Majority |
33 |
12% |
22% |
Last Result |
34 |
8% |
9% |
|
35 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
36 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
28 |
8% |
95% |
Last Result |
29 |
23% |
87% |
Median |
30 |
33% |
64% |
|
31 |
21% |
31% |
|
32 |
7% |
10% |
Majority |
33 |
2% |
2% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
4% |
98.9% |
|
27 |
11% |
95% |
|
28 |
26% |
84% |
|
29 |
31% |
58% |
Median |
30 |
16% |
27% |
|
31 |
7% |
10% |
Last Result |
32 |
3% |
4% |
Majority |
33 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
5% |
99.0% |
|
26 |
13% |
94% |
Last Result |
27 |
18% |
81% |
Median |
28 |
37% |
63% |
|
29 |
15% |
26% |
|
30 |
9% |
11% |
|
31 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
32 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
24 |
11% |
98% |
|
25 |
27% |
87% |
Median |
26 |
31% |
61% |
|
27 |
18% |
30% |
|
28 |
8% |
11% |
|
29 |
3% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
31 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
6% |
98% |
|
24 |
28% |
92% |
Last Result |
25 |
32% |
64% |
Median |
26 |
19% |
32% |
|
27 |
8% |
13% |
|
28 |
3% |
5% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
5% |
98.6% |
|
23 |
11% |
94% |
|
24 |
24% |
83% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
34% |
59% |
|
26 |
19% |
25% |
|
27 |
4% |
5% |
|
28 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
20 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
21 |
14% |
96% |
|
22 |
27% |
82% |
Median |
23 |
29% |
55% |
|
24 |
19% |
25% |
|
25 |
5% |
7% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
5% |
98.8% |
|
20 |
13% |
94% |
|
21 |
21% |
81% |
Median |
22 |
34% |
60% |
|
23 |
16% |
26% |
|
24 |
9% |
10% |
|
25 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
19 |
21% |
97% |
|
20 |
28% |
77% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
29% |
48% |
|
22 |
14% |
20% |
|
23 |
3% |
6% |
|
24 |
2% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
5% |
99.1% |
|
19 |
11% |
94% |
|
20 |
25% |
84% |
|
21 |
22% |
59% |
Median |
22 |
28% |
37% |
|
23 |
8% |
9% |
|
24 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
17 |
6% |
97% |
|
18 |
25% |
91% |
|
19 |
33% |
66% |
Median |
20 |
21% |
33% |
|
21 |
8% |
11% |
|
22 |
2% |
3% |
|
23 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
8% |
98% |
|
17 |
24% |
90% |
Median |
18 |
34% |
66% |
Last Result |
19 |
24% |
33% |
|
20 |
8% |
9% |
|
21 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
8% |
98% |
|
16 |
21% |
90% |
|
17 |
27% |
69% |
Median |
18 |
32% |
43% |
|
19 |
9% |
11% |
Last Result |
20 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
1.5% |
99.9% |
|
12 |
8% |
98% |
|
13 |
18% |
90% |
|
14 |
36% |
72% |
Median |
15 |
30% |
37% |
|
16 |
5% |
6% |
|
17 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
8 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
9 |
7% |
97% |
|
10 |
19% |
91% |
|
11 |
31% |
72% |
Median |
12 |
33% |
40% |
|
13 |
7% |
7% |
|
14 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 11–15 February 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 934
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.73%