Opinion Poll by Gallup, 31 January–28 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 25.0% 24.1–25.9% 23.9–26.2% 23.6–26.4% 23.2–26.8%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.8% 16.0–17.6% 15.8–17.8% 15.7–18.0% 15.3–18.4%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.3% 11.6–13.0% 11.5–13.2% 11.3–13.4% 11.0–13.7%
Píratar 9.2% 11.6% 11.0–12.3% 10.8–12.5% 10.6–12.7% 10.3–13.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.9% 9.3–10.5% 9.1–10.7% 9.0–10.9% 8.7–11.2%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.0% 8.4–9.6% 8.3–9.8% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.3%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.7% 6.2–7.3% 6.1–7.4% 5.9–7.5% 5.7–7.8%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.0% 4.6–5.5% 4.5–5.6% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–6.0%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.4% 3.0–3.8% 2.9–3.9% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 17–18 17–19 16–19 16–19
Samfylkingin 7 11 11–12 11–12 10–12 10–13
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 7–10
Píratar 6 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9
Viðreisn 4 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 3% 99.9% Last Result
17 53% 97% Median
18 37% 44%  
19 7% 7%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 3% 100%  
11 66% 97% Median
12 30% 31%  
13 0.9% 0.9%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 67% 98% Median
9 31% 31%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.8% 100% Last Result
7 40% 99.2%  
8 58% 60% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.3% 100%  
6 72% 99.7% Median
7 27% 27%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 33% 100%  
6 61% 67% Median
7 6% 6%  
8 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 86% 99.7% Median
5 14% 14%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100% Last Result
1 0% 72%  
2 0% 72%  
3 72% 72% Median
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 33 98.5% 33–35 32–35 32–36 31–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 31 47% 30–33 30–33 30–33 30–34
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 29 1.1% 29–31 28–31 28–31 27–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 29 0.3% 28–30 28–30 28–31 27–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 27 0% 26–29 26–29 26–30 25–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 27 0% 27–28 26–28 26–29 25–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 25–27 25–27 25–27 24–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 25–26 24–27 24–27 23–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–26 22–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 22–25 22–25 22–25 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 21–23 21–23 20–24 20–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 20 0% 19–20 19–21 18–21 17–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 18 0% 18–19 17–19 17–20 17–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 16 0% 15–16 15–17 15–17 14–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 12 0% 12–13 12–13 12–14 11–14

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 100%  
31 1.3% 99.8%  
32 4% 98.5% Majority
33 60% 95% Median
34 19% 35%  
35 13% 16%  
36 3% 3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 10% 99.8%  
31 43% 90% Median
32 34% 47% Majority
33 13% 14%  
34 1.0% 1.0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.1% 99.9%  
28 6% 98.9%  
29 56% 93% Median
30 21% 37%  
31 15% 16%  
32 1.0% 1.1% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 2% 99.9%  
28 38% 98% Median
29 45% 60%  
30 11% 15%  
31 4% 4%  
32 0.3% 0.3% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.8% 100%  
26 9% 99.2%  
27 61% 90% Median
28 15% 29%  
29 11% 14%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100% Last Result
25 2% 99.7%  
26 5% 98%  
27 71% 94% Median
28 18% 23%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 2% 99.9%  
25 49% 98% Median
26 17% 48%  
27 31% 31% Last Result
28 0.9% 0.9%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.9%  
24 7% 98%  
25 56% 92% Median
26 30% 36% Last Result
27 5% 6%  
28 0.5% 0.5%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.3% 99.9%  
23 41% 98.6% Median
24 41% 58%  
25 14% 17%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.7% 100%  
22 1.4% 99.3%  
23 40% 98% Median
24 43% 58%  
25 14% 15% Last Result
26 0.8% 0.9%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.8% 100%  
22 10% 99.2%  
23 66% 89% Median
24 13% 23% Last Result
25 10% 10%  
26 0.5% 0.5%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 3% 99.9%  
21 46% 97% Median
22 41% 51%  
23 8% 11% Last Result
24 3% 3%  
25 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.8% 100%  
18 2% 99.2% Last Result
19 41% 97% Median
20 51% 56%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 9% 99.6%  
18 68% 91% Median
19 19% 23%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.2% 100%  
15 16% 98.8%  
16 74% 82% Median
17 8% 9% Last Result
18 0.6% 0.6%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 10% 99.4%  
14 75% 89% Median
15 13% 14%  
16 0.7% 0.7%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 56% 98% Median
13 39% 42%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations